A fragile cease-fire between Lebanon and Israel is barely holding as military delegations from both countries arrive in Washington for a new round of direct talks scheduled for this Friday. But diplomatic success could mean new strategic opportunities for the Lebanese nation. Guest host and MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis is joined by Lebanese Member of Parliament Fouad Makhzoumi to unpack the challenges facing the Lebanese government today, Hizballah’s influence over state institutions, and what all of this means for the country’s future. Makhzoumi also reflects on his personal journey and what inspired him to transition from business to politics in an effort to help shape a better life for his granddaughters in Lebanon.
The news from Lebanon reads like a litany of loss. Since the war began more than two months ago, not only have 2,882 people been killed and 8,768 wounded, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry, but once again multiple heritage sites — especially those in the south — have been damaged and destroyed. Indeed, Lebanese heritage, inexorably linked to its peoples, shares in their vulnerability and suffering.
Despite efforts to extend the cease-fire in Lebanon and disarm Iranian proxy Hizballah, fighting continues between the militant group and Israeli forces. Hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Senior Fellow Fadi Nicholas Nassar to examine what the renewed fighting means for attempts to counter Iranian influence in Lebanon and what could lie ahead. They discuss the prospects for a lasting agreement, Iran’s broader proxy strategy, and how Washington can help strengthen the sovereignty of the Lebanese state.
Why Hezbollah wanted the Ministries of Finance and Public Works
After 13 months of political gridlock, economic collapse, and civil unrest, Lebanese politicians formed a new government on Sept. 10. Three-time Prime Minister Najib Mikati heads a new cabinet, the first since the previous one resigned in the wake of Beirut’s devastating port blast in August 2020. Though the formation of a new government provides a way forward to address the myriad crises facing the country, it falls far short of the near-revolutionary changes demanded by Lebanese citizens protesting in the streets. Instead of non-partisan specialists forming a new unity government, Lebanon’s notorious sectarian elites have handpicked a government of technocrats close to them to handle the current situation, the most brazen of which are the new ministers of finance and public works.
Has Israel’s campaign between the wars reached an impasse?
In recent years, Israel has waged a campaign against the military buildup of its enemies, mainly Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah. This ongoing effort is called “the campaign between the wars,” or the Mabam Campaign. Several events in recent weeks have given rise to questions about the effectiveness of this campaign, however, and have underscored the need to rethink its future.
Memories of the Lebanese civil war resurfaced this week as images appeared of children hiding in hallways and behind cars while deadly sectarian clashes unfolded outside their schools in Beirut’s Tayouneh neighborhood. Protests organized by Hezbollah and the Amal Movement to demand the removal of the judge investigating the August 2020 Beirut port blast quickly went south when as yet unidentified snipers opened fire on the crowds, eventually killing seven and wounding dozens. The “peaceful” protesters seemingly retaliated with gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades. The two sides turned Tayouneh and its surrounding areas into a war zone, terrorizing citizens and destroying property at a time of unprecedented socio-economic hardship.
توقّفت شبكة الكهرباء اللبنانية عن العمل نهاية الأسبوع الماضي مع نفاذ الوقود في محطتي الطاقة الرئيسيتين في البلاد. توفر هاتان المحطتان، الزهراني ودير عمار، 45٪ من كهرباء لبنان من مؤسسة كهرباء لبنان المملوكة للدولة. التوقُّف هو الأحدث في سلسلة من الانقطاعات المتزايدة للشبكة واستخدام الحكومة للضغط العام لتقديم مزيد من المدفوعات المُسبَقة أو السُلف للمرفق المفلس ليتمكن من دفع ثمن واردات الوقود، وبالتالي الإبقاء على الوضع الراهن المستمر منذ 30 عامًا.
Power sector reforms are new Lebanese governments’ ultimate test
The formation of a new government in Lebanon — after more than a year of political deadlock and amid an economic crisis of dizzying severity — is a positive development. The scale of Lebanon’s economic challenges, however, requires a new government capable of breaking with its predecessors’ deliberate inaction. It necessitates strong and genuine political leadership, will, and action to tackle the country’s many pressing challenges, especially in its dysfunctional energy sector.
The consequences of Lebanon’s constitutional crisis
Lebanon is currently facing an unprecedented constitutional crisis that, if left to simmer, will further worsen the country’s numerous predicaments. Three decades after the Ta’if Agreement that ended the 1975-90 war, officials and warlords failed to implement a real reconciliation that could usher in civil order in a country known for its intrinsic vulnerabilities. Although a diverse society, Lebanon has always suffered from inherent political contradictions and currently agonizes over — among other calamities — major constitutional and political crises that, even though they are engulfed by crumbling socio-economic conditions, remain far more threatening than most imagine. How can the Lebanese put an end to such ongoing deterioration? And can Lebanon’s “business-political” class resolve some of the many crises confronting the country?
East Med gas needs clean tech and regional integration to support investment case
The viability of Eastern Mediterranean natural gas resources has long been a source of debate for reasons including cost considerations, market demand, and regional geopolitical tensions. The past couple of years have further complicated the debate, introducing new questions about the role of these resources in supporting post-pandemic economic recovery or helping more advanced markets achieve net-zero policies by replacing coal and other fuel sources (a particularly relevant topic of debate given Europe and Asia are key export targets for East Med gas).
Baghdad, Beirut, and the politics of Lebanon’s power crisis
On July 24, Beirut and Baghdad signed a governmental framework agreement under which Iraq pledged 1 million tons of heavy fuel oil to Lebanon over a full year.
Lebanon’s power crisis is on the agenda, as Arab Gas Pipeline quartet prepares to meet in Amman
These developments come against the backdrop of multiple U.S. hints that Washington is potentially willing to circumvent sanctioning the participating parties under the Caesar Act.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
