As a result of the Iran war, Turkish thinking about nuclear weapons appears to be shifting. Iran’s emergent ability to threaten regional states (and possible determination to acquire a nuclear weapon itself), growing concern about Israeli aggressiveness, doubts about US security guarantees, and greater Saudi nuclear autonomy are all pushing Ankara to consider a future nuclear option.
In less than two decades, a string of offshore discoveries has turned the Eastern Mediterranean into a significant gas-producing region, making Israel an exporter, twice lifting Egypt into the ranks of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, and giving Cyprus finds it has yet to bring to market. This backgrounder explores the potential and challenges of exploiting and managing LNG resources in the region.
The Mecca Joint Défense Agreement: A New Geometry of Middle Eastern Power?
On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Défense Agreement, a collective-defense pact widely compared to NATO’s Article 5. This essay argues that the comparison is misleading. Mecca borrows NATO’s language of solidarity without yet possessing NATO’s institutional machinery, and the Houthi offensive against Saudi Arabia in September 2026 provided an early and revealing test of what the agreement actually means in practice. Neither Pakistan nor Turkey automatically entered the fight on Saudi Arabia’s behalf, and Washington, despite an initial reluctance to strike directly, remained indispensable through intelligence support and a major proposed F-35 sale. Drawing on realist alliance theory — Hans Morgenthau, Kenneth Waltz, Stephen Walt, Glenn Snyder, and Steven David — and on the precedent of the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), the essay contends that the Middle East is not dividing into rival blocs but moving from hierarchy toward a looser, overlapping geometry of hedged partnerships, in which American exclusivity is eroding considerably faster than American primacy.
Catch up with the latest developments about Turkey’s May elections with weekly updates from MEI’s Turkey Program. In this week’s installment of Turkish Election Watch: The Kılıçdaroğlu campaign gets exciting, Erdoğan adds natural gas discount to pre-vote handouts and dials up the tension, and the top electoral body makes a surprising decision.
Naturalized Syrians are in the spotlight ahead of Turkey’s upcoming elections
The most consequential elections in Turkey’s recent history are less than a month away, set to be held on May 14. While the more than 200,000 Syrians who have been granted Turkish citizenship since their arrival in the wake of the Syrian war will not play a significant role in determining the outcome given their numbers, migration is a top campaign issue, putting them at the heart of the vote.
Catch up with the latest developments about Turkey’s May elections with weekly updates from MEI’s Turkey Program. In this week’s installment of Turkish Election Watch: Erdoğan launches his re-election campaign, Kılıçdaroğlu announces pledges for the first 100 days, and İnce’s difficult week.
Catch up with the latest developments about Turkey’s May elections with weekly updates from MEI’s Turkey Program. In this week’s installment of Turkish Election Watch: Kiliçdaroğlu and the carpet, Erdoğan talks tough to the Americans again, attacks on opposition parties, and coalition politics and the parliamentary elections.
Israel and Azerbaijan: Trusted friends and reliable partners
Israeli-Azerbaijani relations are based on two main pillars: patient and cordial political relations as well as defense cooperation and arms sales. While the former reached a more intensive level this year, with the opening of an Azerbaijani embassy in Tel Aviv in late March, the latter pillar of the relationship was well developed long before, as Israel became Azerbaijan’s largest weapons supplier.
Turkish Election Watch: The Week of March 26-April 2
Catch up with the latest developments about Turkey’s May elections with weekly updates from MEI’s Turkey Program. In this week’s installment of Turkish Election Watch: It’s officially a four-candidate race for the presidential election, Kılıçdaroğlu meets with İnce, Kılıçdaroğlu receives a warm welcome in an Erdoğan stronghold, and Bahçeli makes an unexpected move.
Catch up with the latest developments about Turkey’s May elections with weekly updates from MEI’s Turkey Program. In this week’s installment of Turkish Election Watch: The HDP takes sides without taking sides, the dark horse candidate Muharrem İnce, and the AKP’s “People’s Alliance” coalition.
Turkey’s "Gandhi" sets his sights on strongman Erdoğan
The earthquake seems to have damaged the charismatic populist’s image. And voters may finally be ready for an uncharismatic man who promises to put things in order.
Turkey’s crisis management playbook: Donations, reconstruction, and inflation with an eye on elections
Turkey has suffered severely from the two major earthquakes on Feb. 6, 2023. The death toll is a record high, exceeding 45,000. Physical damage from the earthquakes will cost at least $20 billion. GDP growth will be 2.0-2.5% less than forecast before the disaster, adding nearly $20 billion. The combined economic losses due to damaged assets and slower growth expectations may end up being much higher than $40 billion when the government releases a detailed and reliable disaster loss report covering human resources.
Defending submarine cables in the Black Sea: A challenge for NATO and the region
As fighting rages on in Ukraine, crucial submarine communication cables in the Black Sea could be in danger of disruption. Not only have risks of accidents grown with the increase in regional naval activity, but deliberate attacks on these cables follow the Kremlin’s modus operandi of targeting critical infrastructure below the threshold of war. Black Sea states need to more resolutely protect submarine cables, either within the format of NATO or novel regional frameworks.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
