As a result of the Iran war, Turkish thinking about nuclear weapons appears to be shifting. Iran’s emergent ability to threaten regional states (and possible determination to acquire a nuclear weapon itself), growing concern about Israeli aggressiveness, doubts about US security guarantees, and greater Saudi nuclear autonomy are all pushing Ankara to consider a future nuclear option.
In less than two decades, a string of offshore discoveries has turned the Eastern Mediterranean into a significant gas-producing region, making Israel an exporter, twice lifting Egypt into the ranks of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, and giving Cyprus finds it has yet to bring to market. This backgrounder explores the potential and challenges of exploiting and managing LNG resources in the region.
The Mecca Joint Défense Agreement: A New Geometry of Middle Eastern Power?
On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Défense Agreement, a collective-defense pact widely compared to NATO’s Article 5. This essay argues that the comparison is misleading. Mecca borrows NATO’s language of solidarity without yet possessing NATO’s institutional machinery, and the Houthi offensive against Saudi Arabia in September 2026 provided an early and revealing test of what the agreement actually means in practice. Neither Pakistan nor Turkey automatically entered the fight on Saudi Arabia’s behalf, and Washington, despite an initial reluctance to strike directly, remained indispensable through intelligence support and a major proposed F-35 sale. Drawing on realist alliance theory — Hans Morgenthau, Kenneth Waltz, Stephen Walt, Glenn Snyder, and Steven David — and on the precedent of the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), the essay contends that the Middle East is not dividing into rival blocs but moving from hierarchy toward a looser, overlapping geometry of hedged partnerships, in which American exclusivity is eroding considerably faster than American primacy.
Monday Briefing: GERD talks continue, but political will is still lacking
This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region featuring Mirette F. Mabrouk, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Gonul Tol, Alex Vatanka, and Gerald Feierstein.
Monday Briefing: Red lines and rising tensions in Libya
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Mirette F. Mabrouk, Robert S. Ford, Nazila Fathi, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including rising tensions in Libya, economic turmoil and anti-regime protests in Iran, and the Jordanian high court’s decision to dissolve the Muslim Brotherhood.
The eastern Mediterranean heats up as conflicts over energy move onshore
Not too long ago, the Mediterranean was described as “NATO’s lake” — a sleepy backwater in a world dominated by conflict. Today, Israel’s quarrels with Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria are viewed — and minimized — as legacy conflicts, overshadowed by a new and unstable strategic environment centered upon competing visions of offshore energy and security in the eastern Mediterranean.
Monday Briefing: Erdoğan and the “symbolic war” over Hagia Sophia
This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region featuring Seren Selvin Korkmaz, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Mirette F. Mabrouk, Robert S. Ford, and Nilsu Goren.
“في غياب سياسات ملموسة للتعامل مع المشاكل الاقتصادية والسياسية التي تواجهها البلاد، يجد أردوغان الخلاص في الشعبوية”.
أصدر الرئيس رجب طيب أردوغان مرسوما يوم الجمعة يأمر اسطنبول بتحويل متحف آيا صوفيا التاريخي إلى مسجد. آيا صوفيا الكاتدرائية البيزنطية التي اكتمل بناؤها عام 537 تم تحويلها إلى مسجد من قبل السلطان محمد الثاني بعد الفتح العثماني عام 1453. وفي عام 1934، في عهد الرئيس مصطفى كمال أتاتورك، تم تحويلها إلى متحف بموجب مرسوم حكومي.
Turkish-US relations, while fraught with tension, must also align with a mutual interest in stability in the Middle East and preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction.
Monday Briefing: The UN Security Council must act now to save northwest Syria
This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region featuring Dara Conduit, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Mark Heller, Syed Mohammad Ali, Gonul Tol, and Guled Ahmed.
“إن قرار المحكمة التركية الصادر في 3 يوليو/تموز القاضي بإدانة عضوين سابقين بمنظمة العفو الدولية/
الفرع التركي، بتهم الإرهاب هو أحدث مؤشر على أن التعسف ربما يكون السمة البارزة لنظام أردوغان الجديد”
حاول المراقبون للشأن التركي منذ فترة طويلة العثور على مصطلح يصف بدقة “تركيا الجديدة” تحت فترة حكم الرئيس رجب طيب أردوغان.
The Black Sea sits at an important economic and civilizational crossroads on the Eurasian landmass. The region contains oil and gas resources, key energy pipelines, shipping lanes, and fiber-optic cables. For Russia, the Black Sea is of particular importance for economic and geostrategic reasons.
Turkey, the Gulf, and Libya: The economic impact of a growing geopolitical divide
Turkish support for the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) in the Libyan civil war has added a new dimension to relations between Turkey and Gulf countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. But what impact have the growing geopolitical divides and diplomatic disagreements had on Turkish-Emirati and Turkish-Saudi economic relations?
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
