Turkey

After two decades in power and following the Justice and Development Party’s historic defeat in the 2024 local elections, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is now at his most vulnerable. What comes next is not only important for the future prospects of Turkish democracy but also holds important lessons for autocrats across the world. Scholars Evren Balta, Seda Demiralp, Edgar Şar, and M. Murat Kubilay seek to answer key questions about the country’s political, economic, and foreign policy trajectory in a new report from the Middle East Institute.

For years under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey pursued an unconventional monetary policy. The situation, long untenable, finally became unsustainable in the run-up to the presidential and parliamentary elections in May 2023. In the immediate aftermath of the vote, President Erdoğan announced a dramatic shift, returning to orthodox monetary policy. While there have been tangible improvements on a number of fronts as a result, the country faces both declining household purchasing power in the short term and a range of broader economic challenges in the longer run.

Similar to the normalization trends in domestic politics, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has bolstered normalization in foreign policy, aiming for integration into regional and international blocs. The domestic economic and political crises further underscored this trend, and the results of the March 2024 local elections demonstrated to the government that its polarizing discourse no longer resonates either inside or outside the country. This article analyzes the changing domestic political dynamics of foreign policy, Turkey’s role in the Western alliance with a specific emphasis on the Ukrainian War, and the Middle East normalization process in light of the Gaza conflict.

If the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) were to take a more active role in efforts to peacefully resolve the Kurdish issue in Turkey, it could potentially help to break the current impasse. What this role might entail and whether the party is capable of playing it effectively are key questions. This piece will explore these issues by examining the experience of its predecessor, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), over the past decade, as well as the debates following the May 2023 general elections and March 2024 local elections.

While the 2023 elections caused widespread disappointment among op-position voters and an acute rise in political apathy, the 2024 elections once again restored hopes for Turkish democratization. About a month after the local elections, President Erdoğan held a private meeting with CHP leader Özgür Özel at the AKP headquarters. The meeting ended with both leaders announcing the beginning of a new period in Turkish politics, which Erdoğan described as a “softening” and Özel as a “normalization.”

With NATO celebrating 75 years since its founding, Alliance members will gather in Washington, DC, on July 9-11, for a historic summit. Two of the key issues on the agenda will be addressing the acute threats emanating from the Black Sea region and adopting a strategic approach toward the Middle East and Africa.

In its 2022 Strategic Concept, NATO declared the Black Sea Region (BSR) of strategic importance for the Alliance, yet this recognition has never translated into NATO developing a proper strategy toward its critical southeastern flank. That glaring gap must be addressed right away.

While the Washington Summit is unlikely to deliver any ground-breaking outcome, it certainly offers the opportunity to articulate the nexus between security in Europe and the Mediterranean-African region. NATO also has the opportunity to renew and streamline its partnerships with Middle Eastern and North African countries while strengthening its outreach to Africa.

Ankara can make a vital contribution as questions loom over the long-term US commitment to the continent’s security

The most defining aspect of the Sino-Turkish relationship is the need for Turkey to find economic or geopolitical leverage to attain some semblance of equality with China. During Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s recent visit to Beijing, his subtle references to the Turkic and Islamic credentials of Xinjiang may have gotten lost in translation for the Chinese.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Even as more and more countries move toward authoritarianism, big cities across the world are becoming strongholds for pro-democracy forces, a fact underlined by the recent local elections in Israel and Turkey. So the question is, can cities lead a democratic revival in countries that have experienced a democratic recession?

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

On this week’s episode, Murat Somer – Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Istanbul’s Ozyegin University – and MEI Turkey Program Director Gonul Tol join MEI Editor-in-Chief Alistair Taylor to discuss the main opposition party’s surprising victory in Turkey’s March 31 local elections. In what some are calling a “red wave,” the Republican People’s Party (or CHP) notched up victories in both major cities and smaller towns and villages, winning control of Turkey’s 5 largest metropolitan areas and 35 of its 81 provincial municipalities.