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Turkey

Turkey and the Nuclear Threshold
  • Policy Memo
  • Turkey and the Nuclear Threshold

    As a result of the Iran war, Turkish thinking about nuclear weapons appears to be shifting. Iran’s emergent ability to threaten regional states (and possible determination to acquire a nuclear weapon itself), growing concern about Israeli aggressiveness, doubts about US security guarantees, and greater Saudi nuclear autonomy are all pushing Ankara to consider a future nuclear option.

    Eastern Mediterranean Gas
    LNG tanker unloading at Revithoussa Terminal near Athens on May 2, 2026. Photo by Nicolas Koutsokostas/NurPhoto via Getty Images.
  • Backgrounder
  • Eastern Mediterranean Gas

    In less than two decades, a string of offshore discoveries has turned the Eastern Mediterranean into a significant gas-producing region, making Israel an exporter, twice lifting Egypt into the ranks of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, and giving Cyprus finds it has yet to bring to market. This backgrounder explores the potential and challenges of exploiting and managing LNG resources in the region.

    October 15, 2026

    The Mecca Joint Défense Agreement: A New Geometry of Middle Eastern Power?
  • Analysis
  • The Mecca Joint Défense Agreement: A New Geometry of Middle Eastern Power?

    On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Défense Agreement, a collective-defense pact widely compared to NATO’s Article 5. This essay argues that the comparison is misleading. Mecca borrows NATO’s language of solidarity without yet possessing NATO’s institutional machinery, and the Houthi offensive against Saudi Arabia in September 2026 provided an early and revealing test of what the agreement actually means in practice. Neither Pakistan nor Turkey automatically entered the fight on Saudi Arabia’s behalf, and Washington, despite an initial reluctance to strike directly, remained indispensable through intelligence support and a major proposed F-35 sale. Drawing on realist alliance theory — Hans Morgenthau, Kenneth Waltz, Stephen Walt, Glenn Snyder, and Steven David — and on the precedent of the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), the essay contends that the Middle East is not dividing into rival blocs but moving from hierarchy toward a looser, overlapping geometry of hedged partnerships, in which American exclusivity is eroding considerably faster than American primacy.

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    Keynote Luncheon Featuring USAID Administrator Rajiv Shah

    Keynote Luncheon Featuring USAID Administrator Rajiv Shah

    January 31 – January 1, 1970, January 31 - 12:30 PM – 12:00 AM
    January 1 - 12:30 PM – 12:00 AM

    The National Press Club, 529 14th St. NW, 13th Floor, Washington, District of Columbia 20045

    Erdogan in Tehran
    Middle East Institute
  • Analysis
  • Erdogan in Tehran

    Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in Tehran January 28 and 29 for his first meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Energy Minister Taner Yildiz, and Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci are accompanying him. MEI spoke to Gonul Tol, Director of the Institute’s Center for Turkish Studies, about the meeting.

    What is the reason for this high-level visit?

    Whither Political Islam?
  • Analysis
  • Whither Political Islam?

    This article was first published on Al Jazeera on December 24, 2013.

    The downfall of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood (MB) has put political Islam at a crossroads. Not only has it shown that ideology per se is not a guarantor of political success, but also that Islamists need to rethink their strategy and tactics in order to deal with the new environment following the Arab Spring.

    January 7, 2014

    Turkey’s Search for a “Zero Problem” Policy
  • Analysis
  • Turkey’s Search for a “Zero Problem” Policy

    Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s visit to Washington, D.C. last week came on the heels of a year of soul searching for Turkish foreign policy. After the Arab uprisings shook Turkey’s guiding principle of “zero problems with neighbors,” the country now seems intent on resuming the leadership role it enjoyed in the pre-Arab Spring Middle East.

    Turkey-Pakistan Security Relations since the 1950s
    Middle East Institute
  • Analysis
  • Turkey-Pakistan Security Relations since the 1950s

    The initial impulse for Pakistan and Turkey to pursue security cooperation stemmed from their common opposition to Communism in the 1950s. Over the past decade, Pakistan and Turkey have once again sought to cooperate in the security sphere, this time in countering terrorism and ensuring stability in Afghanistan.

    November 25, 2013

    Malaysia-Turkey Relations in History and Today
    Middle East Institute
  • Analysis
  • Malaysia-Turkey Relations in History and Today

    Malaysia and Turkey lie nearly 5,000 miles and seven time zones apart. They have different historical experiences and state structures. The role that religion plays in their public life also differs markedly. Yet Malaysia and Turkey have more in common than is widely acknowledged. Both are newly industrialized, middle-income, predominantly Muslim countries and mid-sized powers in their respective regions. Both are also expected to assume a greater regional and global role in the coming years.

    November 19, 2013

    Turkish Cultural Diplomacy in the Philippines
    Middle East Institute
  • Analysis
  • Turkish Cultural Diplomacy in the Philippines

    The Philippines and Turkey have not fully capitalized on their human resources and strategic assets in order to expand commercial ties and boost cultural exchanges. However, thanks largely to the efforts of a critical mass of Turkish nationals who have formed the backbone of a “constituency” for advancing Philippine-Turkey relations, the tide may be turning. Three recent developments indicate that the groundwork is being laid to pursue a more robust bilateral relationship: 1) the opening of Turkish-owned schools operating both in Manila and in Zamboanga City (southern Philippines); 2) the creation of the Pacific Dialogue Foundation in the Philippines; and 3) the establishment of the Turkish Chamber of Commerce in the Philippines.

    November 13, 2013

    Comparative Middle Power Diplomacies: Turkey and Japan
    Middle East Institute
  • Analysis
  • Comparative Middle Power Diplomacies: Turkey and Japan

    Middle power is an opaque term that involves multiple concepts. Through different conceptualizations of the term, Turkey and Japan are both middle powers. Indeed, widely read textbooks about Turkish foreign policy published around 2000 regard Turkey as a middle power. In the Japanese context, several scholars, including Yonosuke Nagai, Yoshikazu Sakamoto, Nobuya Banba, and Mitsuru Yamamoto, have evaluated the foreign policy of their own country as middle power diplomacy since the late 1970s. Recently, Yoshihide Soeya comprehensively summed up Japanese middle power diplomacy after the 1970s.

    November 7, 2013

    Turkey-Singapore Relations: A Manifestation of Turkey’s Growing Interest in SE Asia
    Middle East Institute
  • Analysis
  • Turkey-Singapore Relations: A Manifestation of Turkey’s Growing Interest in SE Asia

    The content and scope of Turkish foreign policy has dramatically altered since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002. The Asia-Pacific region, which was previously a low priority in Turkey’s foreign policy calculations, is gaining increased space within Turkey’s general strategy and long-term planning, and is seen as vital to the growth of its small to medium sized firms, upon which the wealth of Turkey’s growing middle class is based.

    November 5, 2013

    Turkey and Indonesia: Historical Roots, Contemporary Business Links
    Middle East Institute
  • Analysis
  • Turkey and Indonesia: Historical Roots, Contemporary Business Links

    Though sympathy between Turkey and Indonesia has a long tradition, in part based on their shared experience of being Muslim-majority countries that successfully executed anti-imperialist struggles, for years this sympathy has failed to translate into a closer relationship. This is now changing. New economic linkages and the relative absence of thorny political issues are bringing them closer together. As President Abdullah Gül stated during a meeting in Jakarta in 2011, “A new era is beginning with Indonesia.” Economic agents such as businessmen and entrepreneurs are the pioneers of this era.

    November 4, 2013

    Resolving Turkey's "Kurdish Problem"
  • Analysis
  • Resolving Turkey's "Kurdish Problem"

    This article originally appeared on CNN.com.

    The latest round of peace talks with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) remains the Turkish government’s best bet not just to solve the country’s 29-year old “Kurdish problem” but also to feed its energy-hungry population and wean it off costly and politically risky Russian and Iranian energy imports.

    An Alternative Partner to the West? Turkey’s Growing Relations with China
  • Analysis
  • An Alternative Partner to the West? Turkey’s Growing Relations with China

    The relationship between Turkey and China has rarely been a point of focus for international observers in the early twenty-first century. However, the landscape has recently undergone a dramatic change, with increasing numbers of symposiums, forums, panels, articles, columns, think tanks, and researchers focusing on Sino-Turkish relations in China or in Turkey. The change is mostly due to the impressive rise of both Turkey and China as powers on the regional and global level, respectively. Today, Turkey is the sixteenth largest economy and China the second largest. At the same time, they are more ardently looking at and listening to each other.

    October 25, 2013

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