As a result of the Iran war, Turkish thinking about nuclear weapons appears to be shifting. Iran’s emergent ability to threaten regional states (and possible determination to acquire a nuclear weapon itself), growing concern about Israeli aggressiveness, doubts about US security guarantees, and greater Saudi nuclear autonomy are all pushing Ankara to consider a future nuclear option.
In less than two decades, a string of offshore discoveries has turned the Eastern Mediterranean into a significant gas-producing region, making Israel an exporter, twice lifting Egypt into the ranks of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, and giving Cyprus finds it has yet to bring to market. This backgrounder explores the potential and challenges of exploiting and managing LNG resources in the region.
The Mecca Joint Défense Agreement: A New Geometry of Middle Eastern Power?
On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Défense Agreement, a collective-defense pact widely compared to NATO’s Article 5. This essay argues that the comparison is misleading. Mecca borrows NATO’s language of solidarity without yet possessing NATO’s institutional machinery, and the Houthi offensive against Saudi Arabia in September 2026 provided an early and revealing test of what the agreement actually means in practice. Neither Pakistan nor Turkey automatically entered the fight on Saudi Arabia’s behalf, and Washington, despite an initial reluctance to strike directly, remained indispensable through intelligence support and a major proposed F-35 sale. Drawing on realist alliance theory — Hans Morgenthau, Kenneth Waltz, Stephen Walt, Glenn Snyder, and Steven David — and on the precedent of the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), the essay contends that the Middle East is not dividing into rival blocs but moving from hierarchy toward a looser, overlapping geometry of hedged partnerships, in which American exclusivity is eroding considerably faster than American primacy.
Dr. George Gavrilis of the Hollings Center for International Dialogue will serve as the discussant. The talk will focus on Younis's recent publication in the Turkish Policy Quarterly on the role of Turkey in a changing MENA region and the potential influence it can have on the process of democratization in Egypt. Younis will also share some insights from Gallup's polling in other Arab Spring countries on the public's perceptions of the challenges facing their nations following the uprisings of 2011.
Kurdish Issues: Turkey and the Kurdistan Regional Government in a Changing Middle East
The Arab Spring has driven a wedge between Turkey and its once-close allies, Iran and Syria. Ankara's ties with Baghdad are strained, as well. Panelists will address the impact of external upheaval on Turkey's internal Kurdish issue and examine the situation in the context of Turkey's changing relationship with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq. Given the realities of the new regional dynamics, what are the prospects for Turkey's "Kurdish Opening?" What impact will increased bilateral Turkey-KRG cooperation have on the security situation?
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
