Algeria

Newly elected President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and the Army leadership finish the year with doubtful legitimacy and remain at an impasse with a protest movement that has not yet developed visible, coherent leadership.

Campaigning in Algeria’s controversial presidential election has concluded, and voting will take place on Thursday, Dec. 12.

There are two contests underway. One is between the five presidential candidates, who make promises without much detail or even controversy. The larger contest pits the army, which needs a high voter turnout to lend the election credibility, against the hirak, which aims to reduce turnout and limit any boost to the system’s legitimacy.

OPEC+ nations have ended speculation about whether they would continue oil production cuts by agreeing to a nine-month extension. Led by the global petroleum powers Saudi Arabia and Russia, the group agreed on July 2 to extend the current level of cuts until the second quarter of 2020.

This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region including Turkey’s confrontation with the U.S. over its S-400 defense system, the latest round of Afghan peace talks, the UAE’s drawdown in Yemen, Turkey’s media signaling on Syria, and the 21st consecutive week of protests in Algeria, featuring W. Robert Pearson, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Ibrahim Jalal, Guney Yildiz, and Robert S. Ford.

A reliable supply of freshwater is a prerequisite for sustainable socioeconomic development, as well as for sociopolitical stability and human prosperity, especially in semi-arid and arid regions of the world. The Middle East and North Africa’s freshwater resources are under immense pressures and are facing significant risks to their sustainability due to overexploitation, climate change, and interstate competition over their use that extends beyond the region’s boundaries.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Gerald Feierstein, Zubair Iqbal, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Mirette F. Mabrouk, Robert S. Ford, and Rauf Mammadov provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran with Iraq caught in between, Jared Kushner’s economic development plan for Palestinians, the IMF’s bailout deal with Pakistan, political turmoil ahead of the Afghan presidential election, developments in the Egyptian media landscape following recent constitutional amendments, debate over how to approach elections in Algeria, and the impact of US-Iran tensions on the oil market.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Jonathan M. Winer, Robert S. Ford, Mirette F. Mabrouk, and Charles Schmitz provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the current uprisings in Algeria and Sudan, General Hifter’s effort to take Tripoli, the hirak protest movement in Algeria, the strategic partnership between Egypt and the U.S., and cracks in the coalition of President Hadi in Yemen.

New Arab uprisings echo earlier revolts

Paul Salem
President

Following the resignation of 82-year-old President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in early April after weeks of mass demonstrations, the dispute between Algerian protesters and the country’s entrenched power structure has entered a new phase. The protest movement has viewed Bouteflika’s peaceful removal as an initial victory in the longer struggle to overhaul Algeria’s political edifice. But any attempt to fundamentally change the governance system and introduce a new relationship between rulers and ruled is likely to quickly come up against the will of established power-brokers, especially the military, and the ongoing dispute has the potential to escalate into violence.

According to SIPRI’s recently published annual report, Russia’s share of global arms exports shrank by around one-fifth over the last decade, falling from 27 percent to 21 percent, while the U.S. share increased from 30 percent to 36 percent, widening the gap between the two major arms exporters. As Russia looks to reverse this decline, it is focusing on the Middle East, the world’s second-largest and fastest-growing arms market, as a way to boost its exports.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Mirette F. Mabrouk, Nathan Stock, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the government shakeup in Algeria, Egyptian President el-Sissi’s visit to Washington, rocket attacks from Gaza, Imran Khan’s war against poverty, and a $69 billion merger between Saudi Arabia’s oil and chemical giants.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Paul Salem, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Wa’el Alzayat, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Algeria’s ongoing political crisis, the 16th anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, criticism of the U.S.-Taliban talks by Afghanistan’s national security advisor, international fundraising efforts to aid Syria, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s fading political clout.

President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s announcement late on March 11 that he would not pursue a fifth presidential term answers the most immediate demand of the protest movement in Algeria but leaves the transition process in government hands.

William Lawrence, visiting professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University’s Elliott School, and MEI’s Robert Ford join host Alistair Taylor to discuss mounting protests and political turmoil in Algeria in the lead up to next month’s presidential elections.