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The East Fails Iran
  • Analysis
  • The East Fails Iran

    Officials in Tehran have a lot to worry about. But they are particularly irked at the speed by which Asian states have dropped Iran as a trading partner. Iran had hoped that the East would save the country’s economy from the barrage of sanctions enacted by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. In early 2018, at a time when Trump and his team were about to unveil the most punishing sanctions regime ever imposed on a country, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei explicitly urged Tehran to look east for trading partners.

    Gulf regimes may oppose annexation, but they helped bring it about
    Photo by AHMAD GHARABLI/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Gulf regimes may oppose annexation, but they helped bring it about

    Leaders of Arab Gulf regimes now decry the attempt to implement the vision of the Israeli Right, which aims to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state. But it is exactly the policies of the Arab Gulf regimes, through their normalization of ties with Israel at the expense of the Palestinians, that directly contributed to the rise of the Israeli Right and made this annexation more likely.

    June 24, 2020

    Iran’s influence in Afghanistan
    Photo by WAKIL KOHSAR/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Iran’s influence in Afghanistan

    Despite strong religious and cultural ties and a long shared border, Iran has a somewhat complicated relationship with Afghanistan. Since the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan some four decades ago, Iran’s attempts to preserve its interests in conflict-ridden Afghanistan have not received much attention from the outside world, but it remains one of the most important neighboring countries for Tehran’s foreign policy.

    June 23, 2020

    Deradicalization Programs for SOSMA, POTA, and POCA Detainees in Malaysia
    Middle East Institute
  • Analysis
  • Deradicalization Programs for SOSMA, POTA, and POCA Detainees in Malaysia

    Counterterrorism strategies can be made more effective by incorporating deradicalization and rehabilitation measures. Deradicalization is a key element of Malaysia’s counterterrorism and violent extremism strategy. This article discusses the Malaysian Government’s multi-stage deradicalization process.

    June 23, 2020

    Egypt’s path forward from the pandemic’s economic fallout
    Photo by Xinhua/Wu Huiwo via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Egypt’s path forward from the pandemic’s economic fallout

    Today marks almost three months of a global shutdown to curb the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Middle East and North Africa region faces a double whammy from the resulting economic fallout and the sharp decline in oil prices this spring. While Egypt is rightly focused on its short-term response to the crisis, it should take advantage of the international and regional shock caused by the pandemic to change its growth model for the longer term and implement much-needed structural reforms on a variety of fronts.

    Is Ahmad al-Oda winning the “hearts and minds” of Daraa’s people?
    Photo courtesy of the author
  • Analysis
  • Is Ahmad al-Oda winning the “hearts and minds” of Daraa’s people?

    On June 20 a bus carrying soldiers from the Eighth Brigade of the Fifth Corps, travelling from Latakia to Busra al-Sham, hit a roadside IED near the town of Kahil in eastern Daraa, leaving nine dead and 13 injured. The following day, the funeral for the nine soldiers who died in the IED attack quickly turned into the largest protest Daraa has seen since 2018, including both Eighth Brigade fighters and hundreds of civilians from several nearby areas.

    The Syrian Regime’s Combat Losses in Spring 2020, and What Lies Ahead
    Photo by AAREF WATAD/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • The Syrian Regime’s Combat Losses in Spring 2020, and What Lies Ahead

    After a brief but deadly Turkish offensive in Idlib, a new phase of the Syria war began on March 5 with the signing of a Turkish-Russian cease-fire deal. Reported deaths dropped drastically following the cease-fire, and this spring has been defined by the slow attrition of pro-regime forces due to the two ingoing insurgencies in south and central Syria and the two frozen frontlines in the northwest and northeast.

    June 19, 2020

    Russia in the Black Sea
  • Analysis
  • Russia in the Black Sea

    The Black Sea sits at an important economic and civilizational crossroads on the Eurasian landmass. The region contains oil and gas resources, key energy pipelines, shipping lanes, and fiber-optic cables. For Russia, the Black Sea is of particular importance for economic and geostrategic reasons.

    June 18, 2020

    Strategic competitors in search of China: The story of Romania and Bulgaria
  • Analysis
  • Strategic competitors in search of China: The story of Romania and Bulgaria

    Romanian and Bulgarian interests have diverged on many occasions throughout history, but their outlooks have recently become more aligned. For one thing, both countries have fostered a competitive dynamic to exploit their advantageous position near the Black Sea, or to join the EU and the Schengen Area. Their narratives regarding China are also similar.

    June 17, 2020

    Turkey, the Gulf, and Libya: The economic impact of a growing geopolitical divide
    Photo by Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Turkey, the Gulf, and Libya: The economic impact of a growing geopolitical divide

    Turkish support for the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) in the Libyan civil war has added a new dimension to relations between Turkey and Gulf countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. But what impact have the growing geopolitical divides and diplomatic disagreements had on Turkish-Emirati and Turkish-Saudi economic relations?

    June 17, 2020

    Syrians respond to COVID-19 with renewed volunteer and community efforts
    Photo by AAREF WATAD/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Syrians respond to COVID-19 with renewed volunteer and community efforts

    With an economy already on the brink of collapse and a shocking devaluation of the Syrian pound — hitting 3,175 pounds to the dollar earlier this month — the COVID-19 pandemic has come at an exceptionally dangerous time in Syria.

    June 17, 2020

    Dancing during the pandemic: Despite restrictions, music and dance retain a central role in Iranian society
    Photo by Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Dancing during the pandemic: Despite restrictions, music and dance retain a central role in Iranian society

    Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, music and dance have become increasingly common in Iran’s hospitals and on its streets. Long disallowed in public after the Islamic revolution of 1979, they have become both a source of support for Iranians during difficult times and a way of resisting the regime.

    June 16, 2020

    Nation or Religion? Iraq’s Hybrid Identity Politics
    (Photo by MOHAMMED SAWAF/AFP via Getty Images)
  • Analysis
  • Nation or Religion? Iraq’s Hybrid Identity Politics

    Is Iraqi society structurally sectarian? Or does it have a strong capacity of resilience to sectarian trends? This article  explores the nature of Iraq’s political sociology by examining several key indicators: the composition and aspirations of Iraqi society; the nature of the parliament; and the challenges that current Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi faced as he tried to form a government in spring 2020.

    June 16, 2020