Research & Commentary Results

Despite a few hiccups, the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas has achieved its initial milestones. Much will depend on the upcoming negotiations regarding the next phases of the agreement. Yet for now, the fundamental questions of who will govern Gaza, who will provide security, and who will deliver the funding to rebuild it have yet to be definitively resolved.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a potentially disastrous showdown within the next month that could shake his hold on power, unless he manages to deter the strongly held positions of the foreign and domestic politicians and political forces on which he is dependent.

In his second term in office, President Donald Trump faces a Middle East undergoing multifaceted upheaval and an Islamic Republic of Iran currently in its weakest and most isolated position since the founding of the regime in 1979. Yet far from permanently subdued, Tehran continues to move closer to building a nuclear weapon, and it is trying to preserve its regional network of proxies and non-state allies. Trump now faces an important strategic choice on Iran policy. This report analyzes three overarching dynamics: the shifting strategic landscape across the Middle East in 2023-24; the impact of these shifts on Iran and its Axis of Resistance network; and Iran’s current position and standing at home and in the region. It concludes with a series of strategic-level recommendations for the new administration.

The cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas announced on Jan. 15 took more than a year to reach and almost certainly will take much longer to fully realize than the four-plus months outlined in the framework. Like many things in life, this agreement was hard to build and will be easy to tear down. Indeed, the deal has already run into issues even before it is set to take effect on Jan. 19, with a dispute within the Israeli cabinet delaying a vote on it to Jan. 17. 

A very different Middle East will greet President-elect Trump this month compared to the region he experienced during his first term. However, there are opportunities to advance American interests for a more stable and less conflictual Middle East, which might not require the kind of intense US commitment we have seen over the last quarter-century.

More than a year has passed since the horrific attacks that took the lives of 1,200 innocent Israeli citizens on Oct. 7, 2023, a devasting day that led to many more devasting days in Gaza, where tens of thousands of innocent people have died and countless more have experienced suffering on an industrial scale. All hopes that the war might soon wind down are fading, as the conflict has expanded regionally and internationally and attention has been diverted to a hot cease-fire in Lebanon and the dramatic events unfolding in Syria. Saudi Arabia can help support a credible path to peace.

The current Israeli government’s extremism encompasses two entwined trends in Israeli political culture. The first is the rise and mainstreaming of the ideological settler movement and far-right nationalism. The second is Israel’s growing authoritarian tendencies, manifested in systematic efforts to reshape state institutions. As democratic institutions are weakened, the government faces fewer barriers to implementing its expansionist territorial agenda, while the mainstreaming of far-right ideology helps justify the erosion of democratic safeguards. Yet the vast majority of Israelis fail to recognize the connection between these trends, as do most policymakers in the United States.

Half a century of rule by the Assad family in Syria collapsed astonishingly quickly after insurgents burst out of a rebel-held enclave and took Damascus in a matter of days. For Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, however, it was not fast enough. He has been waiting for this moment since the Syrian uprising in 2011 and is determined to reap the benefits of Bashar al-Assad’s ousting ahead of Turkey’s 2028 elections.

In most capitals across the Middle East, the news of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s fall sparked immense anxiety. Ankara is not one of them. Rather than worrying about Syria’s prospects after more than a decade of conflict, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sees opportunity in a post-Assad future. His optimism is well founded: out of all the region’s major players, Ankara has the strongest channels of communication and history of working with the Islamist group now in charge in Damascus, positioning it to reap the benefits of the Assad regime’s demise.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Last month, the US electorate voted President-Elect Donald Trump back into the White House. His victory was seen by some experts as part of a global trend and a move towards anti-incumbency attitudes and populism. How will Trump’s rhetoric impact the United States domestically and internationally? Will he govern as a strongman during his second term? What can we expect to be different from his first term?

In only six days, a broad coalition of advancing opposition forces coordinated by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has captured all of Idlib province, almost all of Aleppo province, and a sizeable stretch of northern Hama — a humiliating defeat for Bashar al-Assad and illustrative of the fragility of regime rule in Syria.

MEI Senior Fellow for Israeli Affairs Nimrod Goren and Associate Research Professor Ilai Saltzman discuss potential shifts in US policy, the outlook for Israeli politics in 2025, and the challenges to advancing peace on the Israeli-Palestinian front. Tune in for expert insights on what lies ahead.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Supporters of peace, both local civil society actors and international partners, need to make a sustained effort to promote conflict resolution by shifting the public discourse of traditional and new media outlets, especially in Israel.