Research & Commentary Results

Well over 30 attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea have been reported since mid-November 2023, although none have targeted crude oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers to date. But that is not to say that global energy flows through this critical maritime chokepoint are invulnerable; any harm that came to hydrocarbon carriers traveling into or out of the Red Sea via the Bab el-Mandeb would have far-reaching consequences for international markets.

Azerbaijan will host COP29 at the end of this year. Being selected to host the most important international climate event is a major achievement for the South Caucasus country, though the spotlight it brings will come with its own challenges due to Azerbaijan’s poor human rights record and worsening relations with the West.

Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.

A closer look at the impact of domestic and international developments on Algeria’s agenda as the country prepares for a complicated and critical presidential race in December 2024.

In 2017, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and a number of Jordanian banks established the Saudi-Jordanian Investment Fund to channel $3 billion into the Jordanian economy. Two SJIF projects provide relevant case studies of the challenges facing Jordan’s broader efforts to attract more FDI and drive economic development.

The European Union just approved membership talks with Kyiv; that’s symbolically important.

But the EU’s postponement of critical military assistance is an alarm bell. 

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says to prepare for bad news this winter. 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz suggests support for Ukraine may be crumbling across Europe.

And there’s faltering confidence in America, as Europeans are beginning to ask whether the strategic interests of the United States end at its border with Mexico.

How did we get here?

Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa orchestrated a paradigm shift in Pakistan’s traditional geostrategic focus, transitioning from geopolitics to geoeconomics. His successor, Gen. Asim Munir, in command of Pakistan’s military for the past year, now faces the challenging task of turning Gen. Bajwa’s unrealized vision into a reality, a goal that requires cultivating positive interdependence and multi-alignment with a diverse range of partners, while also ensuring domestic stability.

Iran sees lucrative markets across the Black Sea region. It also sees an opportunity to expand strategic cooperation with Russia. And there’s just a chance that America will turn inward in 2025.

It’s all dangerous. To get the picture, start by connecting the dots.

At the September G20 meeting, host country India, along with the United States, the European Union, France, Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), signed a memorandum of understanding, a non-binding commitment to work towards building two separate “corridors”, essentially envisioning a political line that is connected by some new and some existing, or already under construction, physical infrastructure.

The Oct. 7 Hamas attack against Israel and the latter’s ongoing military operation in Gaza have stalled progress in the development of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and raised questions about its prospects for eventual completion. The IMEC faces multiple viability challenges, but none of them are insurmountable; thus, its participants are unlikely to abandon it.

The renewed violence in Gaza could not have come at a less opportune time for the climate agenda in the Middle East. From energy economics to environmental degradation, the ripple effects of conflict will complicate the path ahead.

Outside of the security risks brought about by war, the Israel-Hamas conflict has yet to result in major changes in the regional natural gas market.

In recent years, China’s presence in Egypt’s strategic ports has grown noticeably, including the involvement of both private and state-owned Chinese companies. While this reflects Beijing’s growing ambitions in the region, the opacity of the Sino-Egyptian agreements and the blurry lines between China’s commercial ports and its military aspirations raise questions about the potential implications.

With no new interregional or international gas pipelines currently planned, gas-poor Morocco should consider alternative import schemes, such as LNG import via ISO tank containers, utilizing its well-developed port, rail, and road infrastructure.