Can oil and water mix?: Creating opportunities for Iraq-Turkey cooperation
Last week saw a flurry of diplomatic activity between Baghdad and Ankara. The top priorities in the talks were oil exports, the presence of the PKK in Iraq, and Iraq’s water crisis. The outcomes have been unimpressive, but there is an opportunity for Iraq to shake things up and improve its bargaining position, at least on the oil export issue, possibly more.
After Prigozhin: The future of Wagner and Russian gray zone activities in MENA
As the Wagner Group has an entrenched military presence in Syria, Libya, and Sudan, the evisceration of its senior leadership will have serious repercussions for Russia’s influence in the MENA region. Wagner’s military contractors are unlikely to depart, since they guard strategically valuable oil and mining facilities; but they are likely to now be swiftly integrated into the regular Russian Armed Forces.
The SDF has always been a diverse coalition of localized actors. Over the past eight years, it has managed to contain these persistent frictions, but that may now be coming to an end. In the past three days, at least 50 people have been killed in fighting between Arab tribal fighters and the SDF in the region where Syria’s Khabur and Euphrates rivers meet. The catalyst for this fighting occurred late on Aug. 27, when Ahmed al-Khubayl, the leader of the SDF’s Deir ez-Zor Military Council, was lured north to Hasakah for a purported meeting, only to be arrested alongside his brother and four other commanders.
Putting Egypt-Turkey relations on a sustainable footing
Turkey and Egypt, two influential regional players with a complex history of cooperation and conflict, are now working on mending their ruptured ties. As officials navigate this process, it is essential to identify practical steps to capitalize on the diplomatic breakthrough. Sustainable peace can only be ensured by shifting the focus from political ideology to shared interests. One way to do that is by creating an inclusive, multi-track process that involves state institutions, businesses, NGOs, academics, and the grassroots.
The Niger Coup and Turkey’s Military Industrial Complex in Africa
The recent military coup in Niger marks the point of no return for the unraveling of France’s dominant economic and military influence across West Africa. Turkey is the foreign actor that stands to benefit most, with the potential to emerge as a leading strategic partner for the nations of the region. Turkey’s engagement with West Africa is a unique, dual approach that blends military and economic engagement while deftly intertwining humanitarian aid and cultural outreach.
Building back better with gender in mind: Centering Turkey’s women and girls in earthquake recovery
Gender-blind development policies leave women and girls behind and exacerbate their vulnerabilities before, during, and after disasters, as was made clear by the Feb. 6, 2023 earthquake that struck southeastern Turkey and northwestern Syria. By viewing disasters as gendered development problems, we can better understand the differential impact the Feb. 6 earthquake had on women and girls in Turkey and make more impactful policy recommendations.
Impossible choices and routine tragedies: The Syrian refugee crisis at 13
There are currently over 5.34 million Syrian refugees dispersed in camps, collective shelters, and poor neighborhoods across Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, and Egypt. Many make desperate attempts to find refuge in Europe. Instead of adopting repressive measures and discriminating against these individuals, the U.S. and European countries should work with regional partners and non-governmental organizations to limit the danger to refugees and IDPs.
Syria’s economic freefall continues despite Arab League return
Syria’s dramatic readmission into the Arab League in May was perceived as a turning point for the country’s fortunes. Although Damascus may have come in from the cold diplomatically, there has been little change on the economic front, where the situation remains dire. Since the start of May, the Syrian pound has lost over 70% of its value and shows no sign of stabilizing.
The successes and failures of Turkey’s new economic team
It has been two months since Turkey’s new economic team took over and some progress has been made. Market normalization has begun and the risk of a balance-of-payments crisis has been reduced. At the same time, however, inflation is gaining new momentum, the budget deficit is sharply worsening, and no reform agenda has yet been announced to tackle these threats.
Alawites in Syria breaking silence?: Criticizing the dictatorship from within
Recently, a notable trend has emerged among Alawites in Syria’s Assad regime-held areas, including those from powerful families. Writers, journalists, and rank-and-file Alawites have taken to social media platforms to express their deep frustration with the regime’s economic policies and the centralized nature of the dictatorship under President Bashar al-Assad, as well as his wife Asma al-Assad’s outsized influence and corruption linked to her secretive “economic council.”
Normalizing Assad has made Syria’s problems even worse
Three months ago, Saudi Arabia kick-started a concerted regional effort to reengage and normalize Syria’s regime within the Middle East and, Riyadh hoped, farther afield. On April 18, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian capital of Damascus. Just one month later, on May 19, the Arab League embraced one of the world’s most notorious war criminals for the first time since 2011.
As the clock ticks down on the repatriation of IS foreign fighters from Syria, a recent development has added a new sense of urgency to the situation. On June 11, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), announced its intention to prosecute 2,000 IS foreign fighters. How-ever, the lack of international recognition for the AANES and its courts renders these trials illegiti-mate, further complicating future international legal efforts to prosecute these combatants.
