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Robust diplomacy is Washington’s only chance to stop a Lebanon-Israel war
Photo by Houssam Shbaro/Anadolu via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Robust diplomacy is Washington’s only chance to stop a Lebanon-Israel war

    In navigating the thickening fog of war, ongoing US-led mediation must actively take two critical steps to pull Lebanon and Israel back from the brink and avoid a direct US-Iran confrontation: secure credible guarantees on compliance and endorse local efforts to elect an independent president.

    US options to counter Houthi threat to global shipping
    Photo by UK Ministry of Defence/Anadolu via Getty Images
  • Commentary
  • US options to counter Houthi threat to global shipping

    Overnight US and UK strikes on Thursday delivered a strong message to the Houthis: their attacks on global shipping in the Red Sea will not go unpunished.

    January 12, 2024

    The Houthis, Iran, and tensions in the Red Sea
    Photo by MOHAMMED HUWAIS/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • The Houthis, Iran, and tensions in the Red Sea

    Ansar Allah, the Yemen-based militant group commonly referred to as the Houthis, is arguably the latest and largest addition to the Iran-led Axis of Resistance. Present tensions in the Red Sea illustrate both the utility of the Houthis for Tehran’s anti-American and anti-Israel regional agenda as well as the challenges their actions can create for the Iranians.

    Houthis see domestic and regional benefit to continued Red Sea attacks
    Photo by Houthi Movement via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Houthis see domestic and regional benefit to continued Red Sea attacks

    Since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict in October, Yemen’s Houthi rebels have sought means to capitalize on the war in Gaza to raise their profile, enhance their pan-Arab legitimacy, and burnish their credentials both domestically and in the region. In their effort to insert themselves into the Gaza conflict, the Houthis believe their actions will strengthen their support base at home while also cementing their movement more firmly into the Iranian “Axis of Resistance.”

    January 11, 2024

    The US is key to preventing an Israel-Lebanon war
    Photo by JALAA MAREY/AFP via Getty Images
  • Commentary
  • The US is key to preventing an Israel-Lebanon war

    The current escalation between Israeli and Hezbollah forces necessitates immediate action from the international community to prevent a widening of the Gaza war, and the US is positioned in a leadership role to mollify tensions, beginning with diplomatic actions to stabilize the Lebanese-Israeli border, helping to pacify the broader region as a result.

    January 5, 2024

    Dynamic Force Employment is the Future of America’s Middle East Presence
    US Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Maxwell Orlosky
  • Commentary
  • Dynamic Force Employment is the Future of America’s Middle East Presence

    The US Department of Defense has stepped up and proposed some creative ideas regarding the future of America’s military presence in the Middle East region, as exemplified by the adoption of the concept of dynamic force employment.

    December 28, 2023

    Pakistan’s military and foreign policy under Gen. Asim Munir
    Photo by IRANIAN PRESIDENCY/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Pakistan’s military and foreign policy under Gen. Asim Munir

    Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa orchestrated a paradigm shift in Pakistan’s traditional geostrategic focus, transitioning from geopolitics to geoeconomics. His successor, Gen. Asim Munir, in command of Pakistan’s military for the past year, now faces the challenging task of turning Gen. Bajwa’s unrealized vision into a reality, a goal that requires cultivating positive interdependence and multi-alignment with a diverse range of partners, while also ensuring domestic stability.

    December 14, 2023

    Gaza war hasn’t halted de-escalation efforts in Yemen
    Photo by AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Gaza war hasn’t halted de-escalation efforts in Yemen

    Over the past two months, the Houthi rebels in Yemen have launched missiles and drones into Israel, attacked several commercial ships in the Red Sea, and threatened to block all ships sailing to Israel, regardless of nationality, until Gaza receives humanitarian aid. In the Gulf, there is a growing fear that the situation could constrain ongoing de-escalation talks between Riyadh, the Republic of Yemen Government, and the Houthis, or even take them back to square one were conflict dynamics to escalate.

    December 12, 2023

    Essential questions about the Russia-Hamas link: The evidence and its implications
    Photo by YURI KADOBNOV/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Essential questions about the Russia-Hamas link: The evidence and its implications

    As the war in Gaza continues to unfold, essential questions about Russian and Iranian support for Hamas remain. They include whether Russia played any role in providing support to Hamas ahead of its Oct. 7 attack on Israel. Evidence available from foreign-language publications in Russian, Persian, Arabic, and Hebrew, as well as those in English, provides provocative leads, which, if accurate, have serious potential implications. 

    A long courtship

    The closer Israel gets to destroying Hamas, the more likely war with Hezbollah becomes
  • Commentary
  • The closer Israel gets to destroying Hamas, the more likely war with Hezbollah becomes

    He leads an army of more than 100,000 dedicated and battle-hardened fighters equipped with thousands of missiles, rockets, and armed drones that can hit targets deep inside Israel with pinpoint accuracy. He inspires and commands the loyalty of Iran-backed militias across the Arab world.

    So when Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the Lebanese Hezbollah and the most powerful non-state actor in the world, says that he doesn’t wish to broaden the war in Gaza to help his Palestinian ally Hamas, the region should breathe a sigh of relief – because his words matter.

    November 17, 2023

    Israel’s Response to Iran in Syria: Choosing Between Escalation and Accommodation
    Photo by LOUAI BESHARA/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Israel’s Response to Iran in Syria: Choosing Between Escalation and Accommodation

    The following quantitative analysis explores the core of Israel’s strategic airstrikes in Syria between 2013 and August 2023, a critical aspect of its defense policy during this time, aimed at mitigating Iranian influence in the region and protecting its national borders.

    November 17, 2023

    The perils of underestimating the Houthi threat
    Photo by Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • The perils of underestimating the Houthi threat

    Despite the Houthis’ geographical distance from Israel and perceived limited capabilities, the threat they represent is all too real and if underestimated, they have the potential to derail diplomatic efforts and destabilize the region, with potentially catastrophic consequences.

    November 16, 2023