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A new era for the Turkish economy?
Photo by ADEM ALTAN/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • A new era for the Turkish economy?

    Turkey’s new economic team may take a more hawkish tone when it comes to tackling inflation and preserving financial stability through fiscal and monetary measures. However, investors and policymakers should not be naïve, as this approach will only be temporary or partial, aimed at winning the upcoming local elections.

    June 21, 2023

    Iran and the GCC connectivity agenda: Implication for Washington’s Iran policy
    Photo by AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Iran and the GCC connectivity agenda: Implication for Washington’s Iran policy

    The prevailing political spirit in the Gulf region is presently one of de-escalation. In the case of the UAE and Iran, a number of existing connections could help hasten the process of de-escalation and enable it to happen faster than anywhere else in the region.The outcome should be of interest not only to the UAE and Iran but also to the U.S. given the latter’s long-standing efforts to shape Iranian policies.

    Amid calls for refugee returns, Assad’s property grab continues
    Photo credit GEORGE OURFALIAN/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Amid calls for refugee returns, Assad’s property grab continues

    While calls for the immediate return of Syrian refugees have increased at the regional and international levels, it is imperative to closely examine the direct link between the regime’s policy of property confiscation and the possibility of refugee returns. Property confiscation does not only impact the direct owners and their immediate families’ livelihoods but also hinders the ability of thousands of displaced Syrians to return while leading those who still reside under regime rule to consider migration.

    Beijing to Baghdad: China’s growing role in Iraq’s energy sector
    Photo by ASAAD NIAZI/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Beijing to Baghdad: China’s growing role in Iraq’s energy sector

    Chinese companies are well positioned to participate in Iraq’s efforts to expand its oil production capacity and develop domestic gas supplies, as they are actively engaged in various energy-related undertakings throughout the country. However, if indeed China’s strategy is, as some have suggested, to become the dominant player in Iraq’s economy, achieving that objective will likely prove difficult given Iraq’s challenging operating environment and contentious politics.

    War as a catalyst for greater Black Sea-Gulf interconnectivity
    Photo by Saudi Foreign Ministry / Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • War as a catalyst for greater Black Sea-Gulf interconnectivity

    Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has destabilized and distressed the entire Black Sea neighborhood. Yet despite the war, or perhaps because of it, strategically important foreign direct investments into Black Sea littoral countries, including from the Gulf, have endured or even grown.

    Turkey 2030: How did we get here?
    Photo by Julian Stratenschulte/picture alliance via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Turkey 2030: How did we get here?

    To analyze the crossroads Turkey faces in the 2023 elections, it could prove useful to “look back from the alternative futures” and explore how the possible outcomes might play out. What could it look like if we look back from 2030 to another victory by Erdoğan? And how might have the last seven years played out had the opposition won?

    May 24, 2023

    Is Jordan’s public debt on a sustainable path?
    Photo by Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Is Jordan’s public debt on a sustainable path?

    In the past few years, Jordan’s public debt has become a major policy concern for the government, the international community, and key donors that support Amman. The public debt has risen significantly over the past 15 years, raising many questions about Jordan’s future macroeconomic stability, public debt sustainability, and the government’s ability to finance development projects.

    May 15, 2023

    Is blue the new green? Opportunities for developing a climate-resilient blue economy in the MENA region
    Photo by Ferdi Uzun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Is blue the new green? Opportunities for developing a climate-resilient blue economy in the MENA region

    The blue economy can offer huge potential in climate change mitigation and resilience, given the fact that marine habitats, such as mangroves, tidal marshes, and seagrass meadows, provide significant protection from erratic climate events. MENA countries would benefit from developing the blue economy to aid in reversing natural resource degradation, sustaining inclusive economic development, and building resilience to climate change.

    May 10, 2023

    Joining the pieces together: Toward a comprehensive EU maritime approach for the Northwestern Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, and Red Sea
    Photo credit: ROBIN UTRECHT/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Joining the pieces together: Toward a comprehensive EU maritime approach for the Northwestern Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, and Red Sea

    Until recently, the EU has favored a piecemeal approach toward the Northwestern Indian Ocean, the Gulf, and the Red Sea, despite their close interdependence and inter-connectedness in the security, political, and economic realms. But the EU is now signaling a growing desire to steer its naval policy toward a more holistic and organic process, creating an opportunity for Brussels to become a more relevant security actor in the waters off the Arabian Peninsula.

    May 9, 2023

    The economic impact of Turkey’s elections: Six potential scenarios
    Photo by Kerem Uzel/Bloomberg via Getty Images.
  • Analysis
  • The economic impact of Turkey’s elections: Six potential scenarios

    As Turkey heads to the polls for presidential and parliamentary elections this month, the consequences for its troubled economy are likely to be significant and wide-ranging. Financial stability, business confidence, purchasing power, and asset prices all depend on whether President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s two-decade-long rule will continue; at the same time these factors will also determine his chances for re-election. There are a number of potential election outcomes that could lead to greater uncertainty and volatility rather than clarity and stability.

    May 8, 2023

    Biden must thwart French folie in Lebanon
    Photo by CHRISTOPHE SIMON/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
  • Commentary
  • Biden must thwart French folie in Lebanon

    Lebanon is on the verge of complete collapse, and if Washington is serious about preventing not just another failed state but a growing normalization of unchecked authoritarianism in the Middle East, it must stop outsourcing leadership on Lebanon to France.

    The quantum politics of the Middle East
    Photo by JACK GUEZ/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • The quantum politics of the Middle East

    Both historical and modern-day conflicts in the Middle East have all been centered around classical territorial considerations of the loss or recovery of land. Escaping that cycle required a shift away from one of the main root causes of conflict: geography. The current changes in the region, characterized by a significant drive toward de-escalation and a growing willingness to periodically part ways with traditional allies, may be telling symptoms of a profound tectonic shift toward “quantum politics.”

    May 1, 2023

    Tunisia, the IMF, and alternatives
    Photo by Samuel Corum/Bloomberg via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Tunisia, the IMF, and alternatives

    President Kais Saied’s statement during a speech on April 6 claiming to reject the conditions, or “diktats” as he called them, that come with a potential loan from the IMF has provoked debate. Reactions to the speech as well as actions taken by Tunisian officials before and after it seem to contradict its intention, causing confusion over whether the deal is still on. Meanwhile, others took the speech as a sign that Tunisia is seriously considering the possibility of alternatives to IMF financing or even a geopolitical reorientation.

    April 28, 2023

    Getting ahead of the Middle East’s climate refugee conundrum
    Photo by Hazem Turkia/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Getting ahead of the Middle East’s climate refugee conundrum

    Over the coming decades, the worsening effects of climate change will increasingly displace many millions of vulnerable people in the Middle East and North Africa, and many of these refugees will attempt to relocate to the Global North. To avert such a monumental looming problem requires pragmatic solutions and their swift implementation.

    April 26, 2023