Research & Commentary Results

The central Sahel — Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — is buffeted by three main forms of armed conflict that overlap and fuel each other: communal conflict, banditry, and violent extremism. These conflicts are partly rooted in a crisis of governance in rural areas, and are exacerbated by climate change, demographics, and internal and cross-border migration.

As part of a continued collaboration with the Middle East Peace and Security Forum held in Iraqi Kurdistan at the American University of Kurdistan, the Middle East Institute and the Iraq Policy Group held a workshop on Nov.15, 2022 focusing on challenges of economic diversification, energy transition, and impacts on labor markets in Iraq and the Gulf region. This report provides the insights and analyses of a select group of participants from the workshop.

At present, the MENA region is a net importer of science, technology, and innovation (STI) products and a net exporter of STI talent. This was not always the case, however, as the Middle East has a rich history in science and needs to be put on a path back towards its historical zenith. An STI strategy for the region must focus on improving science education in universities, enhancing scientific research capacity, increasing financial support for R&D, and fostering regional and international scientific and educational cooperation.

While the U.S. and its NATO allies work on developing a Black Sea strategy, Washington should continue to cooperation with the Romanian Armed Forces, encourage the Romanians to build up their capabilities, and support the Romanian military’s officer corps development. In a multipolar world, solutions will need to be first and foremost regional — and in the Black Sea region, the Romanian Naval and Special Forces are a solid anchor for European stability.

As a major center for fossil-based energy production, the Middle East is key to global ESG developments. The region is currently at an early stage of ESG adoption, although holding COP27 and COP28 has provided some initial movement towards mainstreaming climate finance regulations.

This paper investigates the ongoing Libya conflict through the Enduring Disorder paradigm, focusing on the financial and banking sectors, honing in on stakeholder perceptions of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL), its transparency/opacity, and the “narrative wars” over who is to blame for, and who benefits from, Libya’s economic dysfunction, the lack of an annual budget, and the current lack of a quorum on the CBL board.

The unwinding of global food production chains due to the combined shocks of Covid-19 and the war on Ukraine, made worse by the impact of climate change on the food-water-energy nexus, will require the six nations of the western Mediterranean – Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Spain, France and Italy – to develop new forms of economic cooperation. An Italy–Morocco partnership on green energy food production can be a model for resilient food production chains.

The next few decades will be crucial for Iraq and the KRG as global changes reshape the energy sector. The push for sustainable development, the Paris Agreement climate goals, and associated efforts in areas like renewable energy, climate change, and environmental protection will bring about a transition across the sector, affecting everything from employment and working patterns to governance.

There is an emerging solar technology that is more efficient than the current photovoltaic solar farms and which also helps to save water by reducing evaporation. Floating solar farms can play a significant role in addressing the Middle East’s clean energy needs as well as mitigating its water shortages. 

On Dec. 25, 2022, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune signed the 2023 budget bill into law. The new finance law lays out unprecedented government spending of $98 billion, the largest state budget in Algeria’s history and a 25% increase from 2022 levels. It also provides clear insight into the authorities’ vision for the future and potential scenarios for Algeria’s direction on the economy and international relations.

Turkey has suffered severely from the two major earthquakes on Feb. 6, 2023. The death toll is a record high, exceeding 45,000. Physical damage from the earthquakes will cost at least $20 billion. GDP growth will be 2.0-2.5% less than forecast before the disaster, adding nearly $20 billion. The combined economic losses due to damaged assets and slower growth expectations may end up being much higher than $40 billion when the government releases a detailed and reliable disaster loss report covering human resources.

The Gulf Arab states, while major oil and gas producers, can play a significant role in supporting global efforts to achieve net-zero goals. They are not only endowed with great potential for renewable energy resources as well as some of the world’s lowest carbon content fuels, but also with, to varying extents, sizable financial resources. Yet, to unlock such huge potential, the Gulf Arab states will need to systematically identify and address the various challenges in their path to net zero.

For more than a decade, policymakers in developing countries in MENA have been confronted with high inequality, low growth, rising poverty, and high youth and female unemployment. They now face new challenges as well. This note briefly identifies some of the most important issues affecting the region, relates them to the results of a recent survey of 12 Arab countries carried out by Arab Barometer, and suggests some pathways out of the current quagmire.

Atmospheric rivers play an important role in the movement of water through the atmosphere and can release that water at magnitudes capable of producing extreme weather and flooding. But what are atmospheric rivers exactly? And how do they behave in relation to current climate change in the MENA region? MEI’s Mohammed Mahmoud and Raha Hakimdavar are joined by Dr. Amin Dezfuli to discuss these questions and more.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.