Research & Commentary Results

One of the strategic thrusts of the opening months of Trump’s second terms has been aimed at deepening America’s economic engagement with the leading economies of the Gulf. Thus, the first leg of his trip to the region resulted in a template for deeper US-Saudi ties.

This week, US President Donald Trump makes his inaugural visit to the Middle East since the start of his second term, traveling to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates on May 13-16. Amid the heightened focus on US policy toward the Middle East, MEI’s experts take stock of Trump’s trip to the Gulf, how his administration has shaped its approach to the wider region in its first several months, and how regional actors are responding to the policies coming out of Washington.

President Donald Trump is heading to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE on his first foreign trip of his second term, with major investment deals, defense cooperation, and tech diplomacy on the agenda. What are the Gulf states hoping to gain, and what does the trip signal about US policy in the region? Alistair Taylor speaks with Dr. Ibrahim al-Assil, Senior Fellow at MEI, about the goals of the visit, the geopolitical and economic dynamics at play, and how regional powers are navigating a complex landscape shaped by Iran, China, AI ambitions, and the crisis in Gaza.

President Donald Trump reached the 100-day mark in his second term this week seeing a sharp drop in his domestic political standing. This comes less than two weeks before Trump embarks on a key Middle East trip to the Gulf. The administration may be looking to the presidential visit as a chance to achieve some progress, but the region remains fraught with uncertainty and US policy in the Middle East rarely provides domestic political dividends.

Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed, the United Arab Emirates’ national security adviser and a central figure in its tech and security landscape, visited Washington for high-level engagement with President Donald Trump’s team late last month, signaling a transformative shift in UAE-US relations.

Iran is accumulating enough near-weapons-grade enriched uranium to build a nuclear weapon within weeks or months, not years. President Donald Trump, having withdrawn the United States in 2018 from the nuclear deal that would have postponed that possibility, is now appealing for negotiations with Tehran. But in the Middle East, the nuclear question does not concern only Iran.

Nearly three years on, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has reshaped trade and investment in the energy sector, leading to an increase in Gulf imports of Russian oil and a sharp rise in the region’s hydrocarbon exports to Europe as well as further fueling the growth of Gulf investment in renewable energy projects located in and targeting the continent.

There is currently a discrepancy between the strategic objectives and enabling conditions for solar power in the Gulf and the level of actual deployment. Despite the region’s considerable promise as a potential global leaders in solar power, including one of the world’s highest levels of solar irradiance and strong supporting operating conditions, renewable power accounted for only 2% of generation capacity in 2022.

The hydrocarbon-rich Gulf states are located in the heart of the global sunbelt, endowing them with some of the greatest solar resources in the world. Peak load hours in these countries also align well with daily and seasonal solar radiation levels. Nevertheless, actual deployment of renewable power, including solar, is among the lowest in the world, even though output has increased significantly over the past five years. This paper analyzes why solar power has seen some success in a few states, while in others there has been little momentum.

AI is a pivotal catalyst for global innovation, with the United States at the forefront of the development of this transformative technology amid its ongoing great power rivalry with China. This report aims to define the concept of AI supremacy and to revise the US’ AI strategy in accordance with a more comprehensive understanding of it. The report also looks at how the competition has affected actors from the Middle East, namely the UAE and Saudi Arabia, attempting to steer the conversation on the global AI race toward a comprehensive conception of AI supremacy that is anchored in the realities of international affairs and US-China great power competition.

It is no exaggeration to say that the Islamist political system in Tehran is on the brink of experiencing perilous blowback for the foreign policy choices it has made. Whether Tehran continues to prioritize the fight against Israel or decides to look for ways to deprioritize the conflict as a national security matter will not be settled in the foreseeable future — or perhaps the matter will be taken out of Iran’s hands.

When President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MbZ) of the United Arab Emirates visited the White House on Sept. 23, the joint US-UAE statement was one of the most extensive yet covering pledges to cooperate on nearly every technological sector and signaling a clear goal to shift the bilateral relationship away from hydrocarbons.

A cycle of retaliation against energy assets, though far from a guaranteed outcome, would be to the detriment of all and the benefit of none.

The United States is trapped in a reactive Middle East policy approach of its own making one year into a regional war that continues to expand.

Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.