Research & Commentary Results

President Kais Saied’s statement during a speech on April 6 claiming to reject the conditions, or “diktats” as he called them, that come with a potential loan from the IMF has provoked debate. Reactions to the speech as well as actions taken by Tunisian officials before and after it seem to contradict its intention, causing confusion over whether the deal is still on. Meanwhile, others took the speech as a sign that Tunisia is seriously considering the possibility of alternatives to IMF financing or even a geopolitical reorientation.

Over the coming decades, the worsening effects of climate change will increasingly displace many millions of vulnerable people in the Middle East and North Africa, and many of these refugees will attempt to relocate to the Global North. To avert such a monumental looming problem requires pragmatic solutions and their swift implementation.

Egyptian fish farmers are facing mounting pressures: Year after year, their fish are getting smaller and less healthy, their production decreases, and they are forced to take out loans they are later unable to pay back. The Egyptian government’s recent efforts to invest heavily in aquaculture, though intended to address future food shortages, may only worsen the position of local fish farmers in the Nile Delta by exacerbating the effects of urbanization and climate change while undercutting prices.

When Saudi Arabia suddenly announced in early April that it would reduce its oil production by 500,000 bpd, followed shortly thereafter by several other OPEC+ members, bringing the total cut to 1.1 million bpd, Japan was greatly concerned. In spite of Japan’s serious efforts to work toward a carbon-neutral society, the country is still heavily dependent on oil, the overwhelming majority of which comes from the Persian Gulf.

Last week’s spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, D.C., were an important occasion for financial and economic leaders from the MENA region to meet with their counterparts from these IFIs and major bilateral donor countries. At the same time, they serve as a lead up to the important Annual Meetings that will be held in Marrakech, Morocco, in the fall — the first time they will be hosted by an Arab or African country.

The World Bank’s MENA regional economic update released on April 6, 2023 is one that may herald a sharp divide, both within the region, with its uneven economic trajectory and obstacles to human capital development, and globally, as a cleavage between energy exporters and importers.

In the Middle East, the Gulf states — working together and on their own — are looking to achieve new scientific and commercial breakthroughs in various areas of the space industry. These ambitions carry major geopolitical implications with them, as an ever-growing number of spacefaring countries negotiate a sensitive and increasingly high-powered sector.

Over the past several months, the eyes of the world have been on the massive demonstrations in Israel against the Netanyahu government’s proposed judicial “reform.” Even though Palestinian citizens of Israel are likely to be the group most affected by the proposed changes, they have been notable for their absence, for the most part, from the protests. While Jewish citizens are worried about what the proposed changes might mean for Israel’s judiciary and the future of its democracy, the Supreme Court and the legal system more broadly have long failed to protect the rights of the country’s Palestinian citizens.

The development of small-scale LNG and the domestic deployment of LNG as a transport and power-generation fuel could help to lower Saudi Arabia’s carbon footprint as well as improve air quality by reducing vehicle exhaust.

In recent years, Iraq has become one of the leading destinations for Chinese investments in the Middle East and a crucial link in Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. To capitalize on its geostrategic location and central position within the Chinese BRI, Iraq is seeking to develop a sprawling new 54-square-kilometer port project, known as al-Faw Grand Port, which will reduce the country’s reliance on Arab Gulf ports and overland transit from Iran and Turkey. The project also underscores Iraq’s growing economic rivalry with neighboring Iran, as both countries seek to carve out a similar niche in handling regional transit traffic.

The oil and gas sector has been the dominant driver of Qatar’s economy. Over the years, although that sector has remained the major focus of Qatari investments, the emphasis has increasingly shifted towards the expansion of the country’s gas production and LNG export capacity. While the construction boom ahead of the 2022 FIFA World Cup powered the Qatari economy in recent years, income generated by the expansion of the country’s LNG production and export capacity is likely to drive the economy for many years to come — both despite and partly because of the market turmoil caused by the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Monday, March 27 was supposed to be a red-letter day for the new far-right Israeli coalition government, when it planned to slide through the Knesset the central provision of its “judicial overhaul” bill, comfortably ahead of the Passover recess beginning on April 2. Instead, it ended up being one of the most extraordinary days in Israeli history. Spurred by the “firing” of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the evening before, the demonstrations against the overhaul, which had been building in intensity for over two months, became overwhelming.

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The GCC governments still cover over 40% of the cost of domestic electricity production. Yet, electricity subsidy bills alone do not reflect the full extent of their economic losses. Once the forgone revenues from the export of natural gas and oil used to meet rising domestic energy demand are added in, the total economic cost of the GCC’s electricity is too great to ignore.

As Israel’s hardline coalition government is ramming through legislation that would radically alter the country’s political character and system of government, alarm bells are finally ringing in Washington. Even President Joe Biden has finally picked up the phone and expressed his concern to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about his anti-democratic agenda. The growing American apprehension, however, has yet to be translated into meaningful policy action.