What role will China play in Ukraine’s post-war transformation?
Cost estimates for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction already exceed many hundreds of billions of dollars. Given the Western world’s slowing economic prospects, Ukrainian elites admit that China looks increasingly likely to have a role in helping finance and rebuild Ukrainian infrastructure. But Chinese involvement comes with economic and security risks.
What the United Nations’ 6th Climate Assessment tells us about the Mediterranean’s climate future
The latest U.N. IPCC report details the alarming changes that Mediterranean countries will experience in the coming decades due to climate change, highlighting three critical areas — warming and droughts, declining ecosystems, as well as socioeconomic and public health risks.
Russia’s new military: The rise of Prigozhin and the Wagner Group
Kremlin-linked oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the notorious Wagner Group PMC, is taking power away from the traditional Russian military establishment and fostering President Putin’s dependence on his resources and advice. This trend will undoubtedly propel the escalation of the war in Ukraine and possibly inflict irrevocable damage to the future utility of the Russian Armed Forces.
Tensions in Tbilisi: Is there a Russian migrant crisis?
Competition for jobs was high in Georgia even prior to the influx of Russians. So the arrival of tens of thousands of working-age, often high-skilled individuals from an antagonistic country could, if it has not already, lead to further frustration among Georgians.
Georgia’s major seaports form a vital link in the transit of commerce via the Black Sea, but they are threatened by local and transnational involvement in illicit seaborne trade motivated by high income inequality, poverty, and population displacement. Enhancing maritime security in this geostrategic South Caucasus transit state aligns with the strategic interests of the U.S. and NATO.
Morocco and Israel: Economic Opportunities, Military Incentives, and Moral Hazards
The December 2020 Moroccan-Israeli normalization deal has evolved from a vehicle enabling Morocco to gain long-sought U.S. recognition of its claims on Western Sahara to a broader strategic partnership with Israel. But the relationship further strains relations with neighboring rival Algeria.
War crimes in Ukraine: Failure to prosecute Russia will damage international security for years to come
Historically, Russia has escaped accountability for the war crimes it has committed. The war in Ukraine must not follow the same path. Otherwise, the entire international security architecture will bear the consequences of such impunity.
In Turkish-Russian relations, the Ukraine grain deal is not the point
The Ukraine grain export deal, which Turkey helped mediate over the summer, was saved last week to much fanfare; but the central unaddressed issue remains lifting Russia’s illegal blockade of Ukrainian ports, so Ukraine can freely trade with the world.
As liquidity problems worsen, Turkey turns to capital controls and informal FX flows
The Turkish economy’s foreign exchange liquidity problem is getting worse. The current account balance has been in the red this year with a monthly deficit of around $5 billion. The government has so far managed to avoid a repeat of the December 2021 currency shock by restricting capital mobility, further tightening regulations in October 2022.
Russia’s War on Ukraine: Iran’s Growing Role and the Nuclear Threat
In today’s episode, Alistair Taylor sits down with experts from MEI’s Frontier Europe Initiative to assess the trajectory of Russia’s war on Ukraine. They discuss Russia’s growing attacks on critical infrastructure, its recent deployment of Iranian drones and their impact on the battlefield, the potential nuclear threat, and where things might be headed from here.
Lukashenka’s visit to Abkhazia: A prelude to recognition?
Almost immediately following a meeting with Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka quietly traveled to the Russian-occupied Georgian region of Abkhazia for the first time. Given Belarus’s isolation from the West and deep dependency on Russia, it is highly likely that Lukashenka’s visit to Abkhazia was directed by his Kremlin counterpart.
