Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
This report provides an interim assessment of the Biden administration’s overall Middle East strategy and examines the strategic opportunities and risks for U.S. policy in the broader region.
As Israel faces a relentless, unprecedentedly severe political crisis at home, in the regional theater Iran has amplified its anti-Israeli activities, undermining the efforts Israel undertook during 2020-22 to build up a common security front with neighboring Arab states against Tehran as well as to intensify various military operations against Iranian interests.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Iran has said that its membership in the BRICS grouping of major emerging economies, announced at the BRICS summit in South Africa in late August, is an “historic achievement,” but what’s really driving Tehran’s actions and how much is its membership likely to achieve?
Iran has yet to ratify the 2015 Paris Agreement, but efforts to address the impact of climate change have great potential to create opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation, building on the recent trend of regional de-escalation. Climate diplomacy represents an untapped opportunity for Iran to engage globally by incentivizing it to adopt the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals in exchange for sanctions or debt relief.
Since Turkey’s presidential election in May, western analysts have held out hope that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will moderate his strongman style of rule. Feeding their optimism are several steps Erdoğan has taken, including appointing market-friendly technocrats to his economic team, replacing the hardline interior minister, dialling down anti-western rhetoric and voicing support for Sweden’s Nato membership. All these moves, however, are aimed at strengthening Erdoğan’s one-man rule, and the west is helping him.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
When the Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi, visits New York for the opening of the UNGA this week, he will try to project a sense of confidence and argue that the Iranian regime is purportedly committed to building ties with its neighborhood by promoting and referring to its membership in various regional dialogue forums. Yet their existence has historically not moderated Iranian behavior.
One year after the tragic death of Mahsa Jina Amini sparked nationwide protests, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been striving to suppress dissent while the spirit of resistance among the people has become an integral part of everyday life. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his allies have failed to address underlying social grievances, and there are no indications that society will remain passive. With both sides actively resisting one another, the options for the Iranian regime and the protest movement have narrowed, potentially leading to a reignition of demonstrations and street confrontations.
The groundbreaking March 2023 normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran could potentially reshape the political landscape of the Middle East. It has already paved the way for de-securitization and the resumption of diplomatic relations. However, critical security issues remain unresolved, casting doubt on the long-term sustainability of the process. Capitalizing on this rare opportunity, Riyadh and Tehran should move forward to finalize a comprehensive non-aggression pact as the foundation for their future security relations.
History might very well show that the people’s protests that broke out in September 2022 in Iran were the final opportunity for the Islamist regime to change political course. But as the past year has shown, the regime in Tehran utterly failed to seize the moment.
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Russia’s malign behavior in the Black Sea includes piracy, plunder, petroleum price cap violations, and actions to prevent the free transit of foreign commercial and naval vessels. Its largely unchallenged position in the Black Sea also helps Russia maintain access to foreign-made products and components, circumventing sanctions. The West and the broader international community have yet to act to decisively rein in these flagrant violations of international laws and norms.
Relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have been in the spotlight over the past six months, following the March 2023 China-brokered agreement to normalize ties seven years after they were cut off. The connections go back much farther, however. Indeed, as a new archival report on Iranian-Saudi diplomatic history makes clear, they even predate the founding of the current Saudi kingdom in 1932. Below are a series of excerpts from the report, highlighting key themes that emerge from the archives, many of which continue to resonate today.