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Between Trump’s Iranian lens and Obama’s indifference: What might a Biden presidency mean for Iraq?
US Vice President Joe Biden meets with General Lloyd Austin, the commander of United States Forces - Iraq (USF-I), and US ambassador in Iraq James Jeffrey at the US embassy upon the former's arrival at Baghdad on a surprise visit on November 29, 2011, during which he is due to meet top Iraqi officials, as American troops depart Iraq ahead of a year-end deadline.
  • Analysis
  • Between Trump’s Iranian lens and Obama’s indifference: What might a Biden presidency mean for Iraq?

    Joe Biden is no stranger to Iraq and this informs how Iraqi politicians have responded to his victory in the U.S. presidential election. Some have welcomed the news, while others are more cautious given concerns that a Biden presidency might lead to greater Iranian influence in the country. Indeed, Biden has a mixed record on Iraq. Though a Democrat, he voted for the 2003 Iraq War. But later as vice president, he was President Barack Obama’s right hand and fast-tracked their campaign promise to withdraw U.S. troops in 2011. Looking ahead to his presidency, his familiarity with the political class in Baghdad, forthright proposals about Iraq’s territorial integrity, and previous role in tipping power between major actors may falsely lead to a conclusion that Iraq will be a focus for his upcoming administration. The reality, however, is much different.

    November 16, 2020

    Turning the Tide: How Turkey Won the War for Tripoli
  • Analysis
  • Turning the Tide: How Turkey Won the War for Tripoli

    The War for Tripoli, launched by Gen. Khalifa Hifter in April 2019, came to an abrupt end in June 2020 after extensive Turkish military capabilities were introduced to the theater at the beginning of the year. This research paper seeks to drill down into the military, logistical, and technological aspects of the war, highlighting the unique role of drones, soft-kill and hard-kill air defense technologies, private military contractors, and extraterritorial military professionals in determining its final outcome. 

    November 10, 2020

    Is escalation in Idlib on the horizon?
    Photo by BAKR ALKASEM/AFP via Getty Images
  • Commentary
  • Is escalation in Idlib on the horizon?

    As the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh rages between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey once again find themselves on opposite sides in a regional geopolitical war. With the reverberations from the fighting now spreading across the region, the fate of Idlib could be tied to battles elsewhere as Moscow potentially seeks to open up another front against Ankara.    

    Iraq’s reform program: A white paper with no action plan
    Photo by Murtadha Al-Sudani/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Iraq’s reform program: A white paper with no action plan

    Iraq’s economic and fiscal crises, which came to the forefront this year following the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, were bound to happen at some point. What corona and the ensuing drop in oil prices and declining demand for oil did is accelerate the timing, according to the recently released Iraqi government white paper, a report of the Emergency Cell for Financial Reform. What the paper doesn’t predict is that in the next 6-12 months, and possibly beyond, we could see a worsening of the crisis with both current and future governments trying to adjust oil production and revenues in an effort to contain public discontent.

    November 2, 2020

    US Policy and the Resurgence of ISIS in Iraq and Syria
  • Analysis
  • US Policy and the Resurgence of ISIS in Iraq and Syria

    As attacks by ISIS increase in both Iraq and Syria, the upcoming U.S. presidential election offers a turning point for how U.S. foreign policy will seek to address a potential ISIS resurgence. This paper lays out this growing problem and recommends policy, which will be constrained by the outcome of the November election.

    October 21, 2020

    Iraq’s domestic challenges and US relations
    Middle East Institute
  • Podcast
  • Iraq’s domestic challenges and US relations

    Robert Ford, Hafsa Halawa, and Randa Slim join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the political and economic challenges facing Iraq, the state of US-Iraqi relations, and the potential impact of upcoming U.S. elections in November.

    October 15, 2020

    Jannah or Jahannam: Options for Dealing with ISIS Detainees
  • Analysis
  • Jannah or Jahannam: Options for Dealing with ISIS Detainees

    Thousands of former ISIS fighters and tens of thousands of civilians indoctrinated in the group’s extremist ideology currently sit in prisons and refugee camps across Iraq and Syria. Leaving the detainees there is dangerous, but transitioning them will require some type of accountability for the crimes committed. This paper explores options for international action to deal with the detention of ISIS members from Iraq and Syria and the foreign terrorist fighters who joined the group from around the globe.

    Erdogan’s two-man rule
    Photo by Murat Kula/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Erdogan’s two-man rule

    For those following Turkey, there is no doubt about who calls the shots. From the economy and landscape to the arts and sports, everything reflects the will and vision of one man: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. To his supporters and many of his detractors, he is invincible and answers to no one but God. In reality, however, Erdogan has become increasingly reliant on Devlet Bahceli, the head of the hard-right MHP, who is playing a growing role in shaping his policies. And as Erdogan loses ground in the polls, Bahceli’s sway only increases.