Is the Black Sea European? The European Union is still hesitating
Last week, one day before the European Council, the sixth Eastern Partnership summit took place. For weeks, questions about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine have been asked around the world. But the Eastern Partnership summit declaration, signed by Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, includes no mention of Russia. The Partnership appears hesitant to commit to more security (or integration), perhaps because some members were hoping for a greater European Union commitment to Black Sea security.
What were the most significant developments in the Middle East and regional policy in 2021? MEI’s Paul Salem, Randa Slim, Bilal Saab, and Karen Young join the program to discuss the key events and what trends to watch in 2022.
Amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine, the issue of Georgia’s path to NATO membership is once again in the spotlight. While Tbilisi has made real progress in its military reform efforts, the major hurdle is political, not military, in nature and until the Alliance can achieve consensus, the future of Georgia’s relationship with NATO will remain uncertain.
Diplomacy Is the Key to Reducing US Forces in the Mideast
U.S. military posture is a perfect example of the interdependence between defense strategy and foreign policy. Defense professionals in the Pentagon can come up with the best ideas for where and how the United States should station its troops and military assets overseas, but without the necessary U.S. diplomacy to secure security agreements or understandings with global allies and partners, those concepts will not be implementable.
Bilal Saab, senior fellow and founding director of MEI’s Defense & Security Program, discusses the recently completed Defense Department Global Posture Review (GPR), his thoughts on the review and process, and how it will impact the U.S. strategy in the Middle East.
The EU’s Strategic Compass: Preparing to navigate MENA “with less US”
After almost two years of work, the first draft of the EU’s so-called Strategic Compass was presented on Nov. 15. The objective of this military strategic plan is to agree on a set of proposals to guide the bloc’s defense cooperation efforts for the next five to ten years. Previous attempts at seriously bolstering Europe’s defense ambitions have often been half-hearted, but this time could be different because Europe feels genuinely threatened.
Under the Biden administration, calls for a NATO Black Sea strategy have amplified. A gamechanger for the much-needed regional strategy is Georgia’s and Ukraine’s path to membership. NATO’s strategic reassessment, to be finalized next year at the Madrid summit in June, will likely fall short of granting Ukraine and Georgia the desired Membership Action Plan. Nevertheless, NATO’s strategic reassessment offers the opportunity of a partnership upgrade for one or both countries.
محاولة اغتيال رئيس الوزراء العراقي تتجاوز خطًا أحمر رئيسيًا
في بلد أخذ نصيبه العادل من العنف، نرى أن ما وقع في السابع من نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني، من محاولة لاغتيال لرئيس الوزراء مصطفى الكاظمي، والتي يعتقد المسؤولون الأمنيون العراقيون الآن أنها من صنع الميليشيات العراقية المدعومة من إيران، قد تجاوزت خطًا أحمر رئيسيًا. جاء هذا الهجوم بعد يومين من توجيه قادة مليشيات عصائب أهل الحق وكتائب حزب الله وقنواتهم الإعلامية المختلفة تهديدات ضد رئيس الوزراء ومسؤولين أمنيين آخرين.
Algeria-Morocco tensions: The onset of a regional cold war
On Nov. 1, three Algerian citizens were killed in the disputed territory of Western Sahara. The Algerian presidency issued a statement accusing Morocco of carrying out an attack with a “sophisticated weapon” on two Algerian transport convoys. This was only the latest episode in a process of escalation between the two countries. The Algerian authorities had previously cut their diplomatic relations with Morocco on Oct. 24 due to rising tensions. Even though the relationship between Algiers and Rabat has long been contentious, the death of three Algerian citizens could prove to be a turning point.
Leading a Resilient Lebanese Armed Forces Through Crises and for the Long Run
Repeated crises in Lebanon, including the COVID-19 pandemic, have highlighted the need for resilience in the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). Amid the current acute economic and financial crisis facing the country, there are warning signs about the LAF’s incapacity to continue, as the resources at its disposal and popular confidence in its effectiveness have both been degraded. In light of the current challenges and those that may lie ahead, the LAF needs to become more resilient, able to both adapt and strengthen as an organization, while also ensuring public security, the conditions of its personnel, and its own long-term status.
The 3+3 format in the South Caucasus doesn’t add up
During his recent visit to Tbilisi, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin poured cold water on the idea of American support for a so-called “3+3 format” in the South Caucasus. When asked about the proposal, he said, “I would just say that Russia, which currently occupies 20% of Georgia’s territory, should focus on honoring its 2008 cease-fire commitments before promoting any new discussion platforms.”
For Mali and the Sahel, New Tensions and an Old — and Worsening — Security Problem
Events in the Sahel, and Mali especially, are taking an uncertain and worrying turn. Mali witnessed two coups d’état in less than a year, while the West African Sahel went through its most violent year yet and there are no signs that the violence is slowing down. In the midst of this unprecedented instability, recent developments involving Mali’s transitional government and the international community, France in particular, provide no assurances that things are likely to improve anytime soon.
