Washington must decide if it will grant concessions that al-Kadhimi can use to convince Tehran to accept a sustained U.S. military presence.
There are early signs that it may be possible to turn the page in the difficult relationship between Erbil and Baghdad
While regional tensions will complicate the task of promoting a centrist foreign policy, they will also create opportunities for a skilled mediator like al-Kadhimi
For now, Tehran’s bottom-line objective in Iraq is for the Americans to stop urging Baghdad to cut Iran loose.
The protests are a reminder to the new PM that anger is real and has not dissipated.
The big question is, what is Baghdad expected to concede in return for Trump’s investment?
A perceived lessening of the U.S. security umbrella would leave the Saudis far more vulnerable regionally and could force additional policy adjustments.
On April 30, roughly a week after the Southern Transitional Council (STC) declared self-administration in Aden, a military confrontation broke out on the remote Yemeni island of Socotra between members of the STC and government forces. After just a few days, the situation was diffused when the island’s governor and the STC asked the Saudis to intervene. Although an agreement was reached quickly, it is likely to be fragile because the causes of the conflict are not entirely local. The island of Socotra is simply too important to multiple international players that are not willing to let it easily slip outside their sphere of influence.
The best way to describe the Trump administration’s decision to remove Patriot missile defense systems from Saudi Arabia is by highlighting its military irrelevance and political significance.
The tensions between the two sides are unlikely to ease anytime soon.
The arrival of COVID-19 into Iraq and the resulting reduction in frontline deployed forces has widened the scope for ISIS operations.
If Kadhimi’s opponents succeed in blocking his confirmation, Iraq’s government will sink deeper into lethargy at a time of building crisis.
Vish Sakthivel, Hafsa Halawa, and Nour El-Achi join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on protest movements in Algeria, Iraq, and Lebanon. While each case is unique, all three movements are pushing for sweeping reforms of the corrupt political system, a change in the ruling elite, and improved state services.
The current state of affairs is a clear indication that the post-2003 system of apportionment of political posts on ethno-sectarian lines is no longer working.
Until a new round of UN talks begins, the cycle of violence on the ground is more than likely to continue.