War of words as Turkey-Iran tensions escalate over Syria, Iraq
After decades of managing tensions through careful balancing, Turkey and Iran now find themselves increasingly at odds following recent shifts in the regional balance of power. With Ankara emboldened and Tehran on its back foot after the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the struggle for influence between the two neighbors and long-time rivals is escalating in both Syria and Iraq and could spread well beyond their borders.
Amid regional upheaval, Turkey looks to energy to secure strategic autonomy
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has sought to position Turkey as an energy hub, connecting gas producers to its east and south and markets to the west. Turkey’s geographical position and infrastructure give it an advantage. But becoming an energy center also requires Ankara to dust off a long-abandoned foreign policy approach: “zero problems with neighbors” and the West. Amid changing regional dynamics, Ankara sees an opportunity to achieve that and revive its plans to become an energy hub.
A historic shift may be on the horizon, as Turkey and Kurdish militant leader Abdullah Ocalan engage in unexpected peace talks. After 40 years of insurgency and 40,000 lives lost, Ocalan is expected to call for PKK fighters to lay down their arms. However, with President Erdogan’s democratic backsliding and continued crackdown on Kurdish political rights, questions remain about whether lasting peace is possible. MEI’s Gönül Tol explains.
Beyond “Maximum Pressure” in US Policy on Iran: Leveraging Regional Partners to Contain Iran's Actions and Shape its Future Choices
In his second term in office, President Donald Trump faces a Middle East undergoing multifaceted upheaval and an Islamic Republic of Iran currently in its weakest and most isolated position since the founding of the regime in 1979. Yet far from permanently subdued, Tehran continues to move closer to building a nuclear weapon, and it is trying to preserve its regional network of proxies and non-state allies. Trump now faces an important strategic choice on Iran policy. This report analyzes three overarching dynamics: the shifting strategic landscape across the Middle East in 2023-24; the impact of these shifts on Iran and its Axis of Resistance network; and Iran’s current position and standing at home and in the region. It concludes with a series of strategic-level recommendations for the new administration.
Half a century of rule by the Assad family in Syria collapsed astonishingly quickly after insurgents burst out of a rebel-held enclave and took Damascus in a matter of days. For Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, however, it was not fast enough. He has been waiting for this moment since the Syrian uprising in 2011 and is determined to reap the benefits of Bashar al-Assad’s ousting ahead of Turkey’s 2028 elections.
In most capitals across the Middle East, the news of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s fall sparked immense anxiety. Ankara is not one of them. Rather than worrying about Syria’s prospects after more than a decade of conflict, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sees opportunity in a post-Assad future. His optimism is well founded: out of all the region’s major players, Ankara has the strongest channels of communication and history of working with the Islamist group now in charge in Damascus, positioning it to reap the benefits of the Assad regime’s demise.
Rethinking Democracy Ep. 5: Impact of Donald Trump’s Election on American Democracy and the World with Ruth Ben-Ghiat and Larry Diamond
Last month, the US electorate voted President-Elect Donald Trump back into the White House. His victory was seen by some experts as part of a global trend and a move towards anti-incumbency attitudes and populism. How will Trump’s rhetoric impact the United States domestically and internationally? Will he govern as a strongman during his second term? What can we expect to be different from his first term?
Ukraine’s role in the Black Sea: Navigating a geopolitical crossroads
The Black Sea has recently become one of the world’s most important dynamically shifting geostrategic maritime areas, with Ukraine playing a crucial role in upending the naval balance of power there. Ukraine’s efforts to push back against Russia, bolstered by Western military aid, have challenged the status quo and reshaped the region’s security landscape.
Erdoğan has big plans, but the Kurdish problem keeps getting in the way
Gunmen armed with explosives and assault rifles assailed the headquarters of Turkey’s state-run aerospace company near Ankara on October 23, in a terrorist attack claimed by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK). The incident complicates President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s efforts to exploit the regional chaos that followed Hamas’s attack on Israel a year ago to advance his domestic and regional goals.
Over the past month, Iran and its regional network of allies and proxies – The Axis of Resistance – has suffered a string of dramatic losses and defeats. What is the future of the Axis and its members, and what can the US and its allies do to confront and disrupt this Iranian-led network?
Director of MEI’s Arabian Peninsula Program Gerald Feierstein speaks to scholars Nadwa Al-Dawsari and Fatima Abo Alasrar as they reflect on the tenth anniversary of Yemen’s civil war.
It’s been ten years since the Houthis seized control of the capital of Sanaa, beginning a cycle of fighting that continues on and off to this day. What happened, what is the current state of the conflict, and where might the country be headed?
