Research & Commentary Results

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Last week, one day before the European Council, the sixth Eastern Partnership summit took place. For weeks, questions about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine have been asked around the world. But the Eastern Partnership summit declaration, signed by Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, includes no mention of Russia. The Partnership appears hesitant to commit to more security (or integration), perhaps because some members were hoping for a greater European Union commitment to Black Sea security.

What were the most significant developments in the Middle East and regional policy in 2021? MEI’s Paul Salem, Randa Slim, Bilal Saab, and Karen Young join the program to discuss the key events and what trends to watch in 2022.

After two months in power, Morocco’s new government has indicated that it wants to prioritize social development and post-pandemic recovery as the country reels from the prolonged impact of COVID-19. However, macro-economic stabilization, constrained financial resources, and increasing defense spending are limiting the extent to which the state can effectively pursue and finance much-needed social development plans.

In the aftermath of the fragmentation of the USSR, the South Caucasus region went through a period of transformational change, during which it had to redesign and rebuild its energy systems and energy security routes. The latest U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report demonstrates that anthropogenic warming has caused extreme temperatures, precipitation levels, and drought in the region. While Georgia has significant potential for additional clean energy generation and other climate change measures, the current pace of transformation needs to increase.

On Dec. 19, 2019, Abdelmadjid Tebboune was inaugurated as the eighth president of the Algerian Republic. He took office in the midst of a turbulent political climate following the 2019 popular uprising known as the Hirak. With the confidence of just 40% of the electorate, Tebboune faced steep hurdles in establishing his popular legitimacy. However, beyond his own support, his presidency was also the response of the Algerian political establishment, centered around the military leadership, to the country’s political crisis. As Tebboune reaches the two-year mark of his term as president, it is a natural time to review his administration’s progress so far and assess how its promises and achievements stack up.

Washington will have three options to increase the pressure against Tehran

The pace of military action in Syria has plateaued. With the assumption of a frozen conflict comes the attendant assumption that humanitarian conditions are also likely to be stable. This could not be further from the truth. Humanitarian conditions continue to deteriorate, driven by three factors, and urgent action is now needed to avoid a famine.

Amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine, the issue of Georgia’s path to NATO membership is once again in the spotlight. While Tbilisi has made real progress in its military reform efforts, the major hurdle is political, not military, in nature and until the Alliance can achieve consensus, the future of Georgia’s relationship with NATO will remain uncertain.

The events of recent months, including a series of critical statements by international players about the reluctance of OPEC+ to raise output beyond its established quotas, have clearly demonstrated the changing realities in the oil market. In addition to global uncertainty, the dynamics between Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.S., as well as the actions of Asian oil consumers, have become other key factors shaping the cartel’s behavior.

عندما أعلن البيت الأبيض في عهد الرئيس جو بايدن أنه قد نجح في ضم العديد من الدول الرئيسية المستهلكة للنفط في محاولة لتنسيق عمليات الإفراج عن احتياطيات البترول الاستراتيجية (SPRs) حول العالم، بدا أن هذا سيكون العامل الرئيسي الوحيد في أسواق النفط التي ستناقشه أوبك بلس في

U.S. military posture is a perfect example of the interdependence between defense strategy and foreign policy. Defense professionals in the Pentagon can come up with the best ideas for where and how the United States should station its troops and military assets overseas, but without the necessary U.S. diplomacy to secure security agreements or understandings with global allies and partners, those concepts will not be implementable.

Bilal Saab, senior fellow and founding director of MEI’s Defense & Security Program, discusses the recently completed Defense Department Global Posture Review (GPR), his thoughts on the review and process, and how it will impact the U.S. strategy in the Middle East.

Following the resignation of the finance minister and his replacement by a loyalist on Dec. 2, the Turkish lira continued its steady decline against the dollar, bringing its losses for the year to nearly 50%. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s early cuts to the policy rate since September have resulted in an exodus of foreign capital and a rush in demand for foreign exchange among domestic investors.

While oil prices have rebounded before soaring since the depths of collapse in the spring of 2020 — with Brent crude prices skyrocketing from $19 per barrel in April 2020 to a three-year high of $86 per barrel in October 2021 — the prospects for a sustained high oil price for Gulf producers is unlikely.