Research & Commentary Results

On Nov. 1, three Algerian citizens were killed in the disputed territory of Western Sahara. The Algerian presidency issued a statement accusing Morocco of carrying out an attack with a “sophisticated weapon” on two Algerian transport convoys. This was only the latest episode in a process of escalation between the two countries. The Algerian authorities had previously cut their diplomatic relations with Morocco on Oct. 24 due to rising tensions. Even though the relationship between Algiers and Rabat has long been contentious, the death of three Algerian citizens could prove to be a turning point.

​​​​​​​Repeated crises in Lebanon, including the COVID-19 pandemic, have highlighted the need for resilience in the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). Amid the current acute economic and financial crisis facing the country, there are warning signs about the LAF’s incapacity to continue, as the resources at its disposal and popular confidence in its effectiveness have both been degraded. In light of the current challenges and those that may lie ahead, the LAF needs to become more resilient, able to both adapt and strengthen as an organization, while also ensuring public security, the conditions of its personnel, and its own long-term status.

During his recent visit to Tbilisi, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin poured cold water on the idea of American support for a so-called “3+3 format” in the South Caucasus. When asked about the proposal, he said, “I would just say that Russia, which currently occupies 20% of Georgia’s territory, should focus on honoring its 2008 cease-fire commitments before promoting any new discussion platforms.”

North Africa has entered a food security crisis. Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco are witnessing food inflation levels not seen since the civil unrest of the Arab Spring a decade ago. Although the Maghreb’s current food crisis was precipitated by the local and global economic shocks brought on by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and its 2021 aftermath, the structural fragility of the food systems in Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco is responsible for severity of the problem. At the core of this fragility is the failure to implement adequate measures to address the impact of increased water scarcity and debilitating climate change.

Events in the Sahel, and Mali especially, are taking an uncertain and worrying turn. Mali witnessed two coups d’état in less than a year, while the West African Sahel went through its most violent year yet and there are no signs that the violence is slowing down. In the midst of this unprecedented instability, recent developments involving Mali’s transitional government and the international community, France in particular, provide no assurances that things are likely to improve anytime soon.

In September, China and Pakistan convened the tenth session of their joint coordination committee that oversees the CPEC — the largest of the BRI corridors. The long-anticipated meeting ultimately yielded no major breakthroughs. The momentum of CPEC appears to be losing steam once again, but for Pakistan, slower may actually be better.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, vital to the global supply of both oil and liquefied natural gas. The issue of freedom of navigation in the strait has long been a source of tension, but until recently any attempt by Iran to physically close it looked highly implausible, unless it resulted from either a major embargo or total blockade of Iranian ports by the West, or a large-scale military confrontation. However, the events of the past three years showed Iran can still ensure a major disruption of the flow of energy without a formal blockade and without an increased risk of military confrontation with the West. Iran has a variety of means at its disposal, especially through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval forces, and the Iranians make no secret of their desire to be recognized as the dominant military power in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

Afghanistan’s economy is collapsing. The Taliban’s forceful seizure of power led to a curtailment of almost all foreign aid, a devastating development for a nation overwhelmingly dependent on international assistance. Widespread drought, pervasive corruption, the perennially inadequate use of the country’s human capital, and a population largely unvaccinated against COVID-19 have exacerbated this longstanding problem of foreign financial dependence.

Integrated air and missile defense will make America’s partners in the Persian Gulf safer and bolster America’s policy against Iran. It’s past time to make IAMD a priority.

During the National Day of Villages and Nomads in Iran on Oct. 6, President Ebrahim Raisi visited Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and spoke about combatting rural deprivation, an issue that has become central to Raisi’s domestic agenda.

As the U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP26) kicks off in Glasgow, climate change is front and center on the global agenda. Few regions of the world have more at stake than the Middle East and North Africa, given the current environmental and sustainability challenges and potential future scenarios. Experts from across MEI weigh in with their thoughts on what should be the key outcomes from COP26.

Turkey’s official policy supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine and Georgia, and it sells UAVs and ships to Ukraine. Yet, trade continues with the Russian-occupied territories of Abkhazia and Crimea. By allowing this illegal trade, Turkey undermines both its own credibility and its trading partners’ security. Shipped goods not only help connect occupied zones to Russia, but trade also brings hard currency into these zones, which are outside the international banking system.

Next week, tens of thousands of world leaders, negotiators, scientists, business executives, activists, and observers from all over will gather in Glasgow, Scotland for the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference, which will run from Oct. 31 to Nov. 12. Also known as the Conference of the Parties (COP), this distinguished body meets annually to make decisions regarding the implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which aims to “prevent anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

The Department of Defense’s new overarching principle, U.S. strategic competition, will likely replace great power competition in the next National Defense Strategy, set to be released in 2022. In the latest installment of the Defense Rapid Reaction series, experts from MEI’s Defense & Security Program weigh in with their thoughts on what strategic competition means for the U.S. and how it should go about implementing it in practice.

After 13 months of political gridlock, economic collapse, and civil unrest, Lebanese politicians formed a new government on Sept. 10. Three-time Prime Minister Najib Mikati heads a new cabinet, the first since the previous one resigned in the wake of Beirut’s devastating port blast in August 2020. Though the formation of a new government provides a way forward to address the myriad crises facing the country, it falls far short of the near-revolutionary changes demanded by Lebanese citizens protesting in the streets. Instead of non-partisan specialists forming a new unity government, Lebanon’s notorious sectarian elites have handpicked a government of technocrats close to them to handle the current situation, the most brazen of which are the new ministers of finance and public works.