Monday Briefing: After Turkey's Failed Coup, How Far Will the Crackdown Go?
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI expert W. Robert Pearson provides analysis on the failed coup in Turkey and the impending crackdown on opposition. Marvin Weinbaum considers whether the unpopularity of Pakistan’s government could put it at risk of a military coup of its own. And Charles Lister looks at how ISIS is adapting in the face of territorial losses in Iraq and Syria.
A military coup succeeds or fails quickly. The July 15 attempt in Turkey now is over with thousands arrested, hundreds killed and Turkey in traumatic shock. The reasons behind a coup attempt, however, do not rise or disappear as quickly.
After years of negotiations that produced sporadic headlines but few results, Israel and Turkey finally reached terms for reconciliation on June 27. While relations will not return to the “love affair” of the 1990s, there is reason for cautious optimism. Rapprochement will serve to create the foundation for a stronger dialogue between two of the Middle East’s most important actors.
After the liberation of Sirte from ISIS, now the really hard work begins. The nine-member Presidential Council (P.C.) and the Government of National Accord (G.N.A.) that it named under Prime Minister Fayez Serraj have yet to receive an affirmative vote from the House of Representatives (H.O.R.) in Tobruk. Although a majority of H.O.R. members were prepared many weeks ago to confirm Serraj and his cabinet, speaker Aquila Saleh declined to bring the matter to a vote.
The gut-wrenching tragedy at Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport offers a chance now to strike more damaging blows against ISIS. The cold-blooded massacre of June 28 reveals key facts that call for a rapid and comprehensive response. Recognizing the truth of this massacre opens the door to a new start in Turkey’s own war policy to complement its recent diplomatic efforts to improve its international ties.
The Libyan Presidential Council (P.C.), representing a rough consensus of Libyan political forces, is making slow but promising gains in several key areas. There will probably be setbacks on the road to the kind of progress that will generate wider support from both key Libyan factions and the general populace. Signs are encouraging, however, in areas such as security and legitimacy. It is too early to say that the Government of National Accord (G.N.A.) appointed by the P.C. is truly governing, but it is taking steps that provide more confidence to the international community.
Monday Briefing: Responding to Orlando, ISIS in Libya, and Hamas-Fatah Meeting
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI chairman Richard A. Clarke responds to the mass shooting in Orlando, and Charles Lister and Antoun Issa provide analysis on events including the pushing back of ISIS in Libya and the upcoming meeting of Hamas and Fatah.
Between the rise to power of the Justice and Development Party (A.K.P.) in the early 2000s and the eruption of the Syrian crisis in 2011, Turkey’s “zero problems with neighbors” approach to foreign policy seemed commendable. Today, however, Ankara’s foreign policy is perhaps best described as “zero neighbors without problems.” In response to the Arab uprisings of 2011, Ankara’s projection of primarily soft power has evolved into the embrace of hard power—most notably in Iraq and Syria.
Monday Briefing: Manbij Offensive, Yemen Talks, Turkey-Israel, Tunisia Unity Government
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Charles Schmitz, Gonul Tol, and Mabrouka M’Barek provide analysis on recent events including Manbij offensive, Yemen talks, Israel-Turkey rapprochement, and Tunisia national unity government.
Philip Gordon, a former Middle East policy adviser in the White House, likes to say that President Barack Obama learned three lessons from the region’s unending turmoil.
Monday Briefing: International Syria Support Group, Mustafa Badreddine, Global Refugee Summit, and India's Modi to Visit Iran
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Randa Slim, Paul Salem, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent events including Tuesday’s meeting of the International Syria Support Group in Vienna, the death of Hezbollah senior leader Mustafa Badreddine, the global Refugee Summit to be held in Istanbul, and Indian PM Modi’s upcoming visit to Iran.
Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has announced his resignation after 20 months in office. The decision has exposed a rift with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with whom tension has been building for some time. Erdogan handpicked Davutoglu as the country’s next prime minister after he became the president in August 2014, expecting that he would play a backseat role as Erdogan pushed ahead with plans to make the largely ceremonial presidency into an all-powerful executive position.
Turkey’s Choices: Muslim Brotherhood or Regional Isolation
In the latest attempt to break Turkey’s regional isolation, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu wrapped up last week what he described as a watershed visit to the United Arab Emirates. He held meetings with high-ranking leaders and successfully improved ties with a key Arab state that has opposed Turkey’s pro-Muslim Brotherhood regional policies. The U.A.E. announced during the visit that it has decided to appoint an ambassador to Turkey after three years of coldness in ties.
Holy Crossings: Making Desirable Refugees for Resettlement from Turkey
The focus of this essay is on the practice of the Christianisation of refugees in Turkey. The essay shows that the politics of conversion can be interpreted as part of a struggle to be mobile and to increase resettlement prospects to the United States, the main country of resettlement for refugees in Turkey.
