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CENTCOM says ISIS is reconstituting in Syria and Iraq, but the reality is even worse
Photo by Ali Makram Ghareeb/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • CENTCOM says ISIS is reconstituting in Syria and Iraq, but the reality is even worse

    On July 16, CENTCOM announced that after six months of 2024, “ISIS is on pace to more than double” the number of attacks in Syria and Iraq it claimed in 2023. But the reality is far worse than this statement suggested because the data represents only a fraction of ISIS’s actual attacks in Syria and Iraq.

    China, the US, and the battle for Middle Eastern technology
    Photo by Waleed Zein/Anadolu via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • China, the US, and the battle for Middle Eastern technology

    The US is changing its approach to dealing with China’s technology statecraft in the Middle East. The recent Microsoft-G42 deal offers a new model for technology competition that helps to secure American technologies while accommodating its partners’ aspirations.

    “Gwadar is the future”: China and Pakistan’s troubled strategic port on the Arabian Sea
    Photo by AAMIR QURESHI/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • “Gwadar is the future”: China and Pakistan’s troubled strategic port on the Arabian Sea

    Strategically located at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz on the Arabian Sea, Gwadar, once a derelict port, was revitalized as part of the broader development of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and declared fully operational in 2021. Can a renewed focus on the Gwadar port and the socio-economic and security situation of the surrounding region help Islamabad and Beijing rescue CPEC from failure?

    The US and China in the Middle East: Three scenarios for 2050
    Photo by Wang Dongzhen/Xinhua via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • The US and China in the Middle East: Three scenarios for 2050

    The Middle East and North Africa is likely to be one of many venues in what might be a new Cold War between Washington and Beijing. Barın Kayaoğlu and Steven Kenney explore factors shaping the role of MENA countries in US-China competition in the region and map out potential future scenarios.

    April 30, 2024

    Expert Views: How should we navigate the new rules of the game in the Israel-Iran conflict?
    Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Expert Views: How should we navigate the new rules of the game in the Israel-Iran conflict?

    The month of April saw a series of unprecedented escalations in the long-simmering Iranian-Israeli conflict, with both countries launching missile and drone attacks against the other’s territory for the first time in history.

    In the wake of these strikes, what will be the impact on the regional security and political environment going forward, what is needed to stabilize the new rules of the game, and how can US diplomacy help to facilitate that process? MEI has asked its experts to weigh in.

    Saudi-Houthi Agreement: Four Scenarios and Their Potential Impact
    Photo by Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images.
  • Analysis
  • Saudi-Houthi Agreement: Four Scenarios and Their Potential Impact

    Less than 10 years after seizing power in Yemen, the Iran-backed Houthi militia continues to evolve — and so do the threats emanating from it. After several years of negotiations, it now seems likely that the Houthis and Saudis will reach a peace agreement, and it is worth considering how such a deal could change the group’s trajectory. This report examines a number of possible futures that could develop in Yemen over the next 1-2 years based on shifting capabilities, interests, and alliances.

    April 10, 2024

    The long rise and sudden death of jihadist leader Abu Maria al-Qahtani
    Photo by OMAR HAJ KADOUR/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • The long rise and sudden death of jihadist leader Abu Maria al-Qahtani

    In a significant and surprising turn of events, on the evening of April 5, a prominent Iraqi leader in the Syrian Sunni Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Maysar bin Ali al-Juburi, also known as Abu Maria al-Qahtani, was reportedly killed in an attack in Idlib’s northern countryside.

    Strategic foresight is helping create Arab futures
    Arab Forum for Sustainable Development
  • Commentary
  • Strategic foresight is helping create Arab futures

    On March 5-7, 2024, the United Nations’ Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) hosted the annual Arab Forum for Sustainable Development (AFSD). The inclusion of a special session on “Collaborative Futures: Strategic Foresight for Sustainable Development in a World of Crisis” is another example of the growing attention to foresight-driven analysis and decision-making among leaders in the Arab world.

    March 28, 2024

    The Next Paradigm-Shattering Threat? Right-Sizing the Potential Impacts of Generative AI on Terrorism
    Photo by Marijan Murat/picture alliance via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • The Next Paradigm-Shattering Threat? Right-Sizing the Potential Impacts of Generative AI on Terrorism

    This Study analyzes how and to what extent terrorists and violent extremists have interacted with generative AI so far, identifies potential ways in which they could misuse generative AI in the future, and then contextualizes these threats with the likely broader impacts of generative AI. In doing so, the Study seeks to identify a likely trajectory for the abuse of this technology by terrorist actors as well as concludes with some initial recommendations for policymakers.

    March 18, 2024

    Rebuilding Gaza: Navigating the politics of infrastructure
    MAHMUD HAMS/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Rebuilding Gaza: Navigating the politics of infrastructure

    The scale of rebuilding needed after the Gaza war, in addition to the difficult political questions involved, will require close international coordination as well as innovative, future-informed thinking.

    March 12, 2024