Research & Commentary Results

President Trump’s Dec. 23 tweet promising a “slow and highly coordinated” withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria may ease the gnashing of teeth among officials and analysts in Washington, but it won’t end the criticism of his decision. That is precisely why the president should view the hullabaloo that erupted after he announced the Syrian pullout as an opportunity to take a number of steps to make the most of his essentially correct, but widely unpopular, move.

As the conflict in Syria concludes, the next phase will center on rebuilding and will require hundreds of billions of dollars in investment. For now though, sanctions imposed by the U.S., U.K., and EU block money from flowing in.

Eleven MEI scholars run down the major policy developments in the Middle East in 2018.

In our final episode of the year, host Alistair Taylor interviews several MEI scholars on the key events that transpired across the Middle East in 2018 including in the Gulf, Iran, Turkey, and Afghanistan. Guests include Paul Salem, Gerald Feierstein, Alex Vatanka, Gonul Tol, and Ahmad Majidyar.

Whether Erdogan will follow through on his threat of military incursion against the YPG in U.S.-protected areas of Syria depends on the reaction of the international community, the Turkish military, and nationalist voters at home.

While non-Arab powers have taken the lead in the Syrian crisis so far, Damascus will need to restore political, economic, and diplomatic ties with regional Arab states as it moves into the phase of postwar reconstruction and development.

For Turkey, the best solution to its “U.S. problem” might seem like an American withdrawal from Syria, but such a move could create new and potentially more complicated problems for Ankara.

The Syrian Republican Guard (RG) has served as the backbone of the regime’s fighting forces since protests first broke out across the country in 2011.This report uses publicly available Facebook posts to piece together the history of the five regiments, six brigades, and 46 battalions identified as now belonging to the RG. Featuring an order of battle, command structure, and battalion commander profiles, this report stands as the most comprehensive record of the RG to date.

While OPEC and Russia-led non-OPEC members agreed to cut oil production last week by 1.2 million bpd, Riyadh’s ability to control the cartel and global oil prices is waning.

While Tunisia remains geographically and politically distant from Saudi Arabia, its economic troubles may offer an opportunity for the kingdom to leverage fiscal aid to secure stronger bilateral ties.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including the coming changes in Trump’s administration, Iran’s hesitation in the US-China battle over Huawei , the ongoing Sweden talks on Yemen, results of the latest GCC summit, and questions over the legitimacy of the Afghan elections.

Giorgio Cafiero, CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics, and F. Gregory Gause, head of the Department of International Affairs at Texas A&M University, join host Jerry Feierstein to discuss the state of GCC relations amid the Qatar dispute and other crises heading into the next GCC Summit.

The upcoming GCC summit in Saudi Arabia offers an opportunity to bring the opposing sides to the table, but it is far from clear what will come out of the meeting

As the Syrian government begins to shift its focus to postwar governance, it faces unexpected new challenges and growing criticism from citizens voicing their frustration through social media and other channels.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including MBS’ lukewarm reception at the G20 summit, plans for a UN-hosted Western Sahara roundtable, and Qatar’s decision to leave OPEC.