Europe has little wiggle room to keep Iran deal alive | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Ahmad Majidyar, Alex Vatanka, Jean-François Seznec, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Gonul Tol, and Randa Slim provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Europe’s scramble to salvage the Iran nuclear deal following the U.S. withdrawal, Iran’s response to Russia’s call for all foreign forces to leave Syria, a meeting by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia to discuss the impact of new U.S. sanctions on Iran, the arrest of women’s rights activists in Saudi Arabia, new political tensions in Pakistan, a push in the U.S.
A tale of two elections: recapping the polls in Lebanon and Iraq
As Lebanon holds its first parliamentary elections in nine years and Iraq paves a way forward in the aftermath of the war against ISIS, many questions remain as to what the political future holds for both countries. The parliamentary elections in Lebanon on May 6, and in Iraq on May 12, serve as a barometer for transparency, inclusion, and the political realities in both countries. The polls have raised pressing political and governance issues such as how to overcome sectarianism, corruption, and economic stagnation in order to encourage further openness and plurality.
Two major events in the past few weeks have come into play regarding the future of a de-escalation zone in southern Syria from a Jordanian perspective. The first was the Western coalition’s missile strike on April 13 against Syrian regime positions in retaliation for an alleged chemical attack in the besieged Eastern Ghouta that took place on April 7.
The bombs continue to fall over Syria to the consternation of all concerned. Syrian president Bashar al-Assad warns of a conflict on Syrian soil that will embroil Israel, Iran, and Russia. “Things,” he says, “could spin out of control.”
The escalating violence between Iran and Israel in recent days is clear evidence of a new post-“Assad must go” phase in Syria’s ongoing misery.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, W. Robert Pearson, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the escalating deterrence between Israel and Iran, Pompeo’s pressure to resolve the Gulf crisis, Turkey’s increasing isolation, and the Pashtun protests in Pakistan.
Amb. Robert Ford and Charles Lister join host Paul Salem to discuss last week’s U.S. airstrikes in Syria in response to the Assad government’s ongoing use of chemical weapons, what the Trump administration is signaling about America’s plans there, and the escalating standoff between Israeli and Iranian forces in the country.
How sustainable is Russian-Saudi energy cooperation?
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told journalists in New York last week that the kingdom is looking at extending its oil production-cut deal with Russia for 10 to 20 years.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Gonul Tol, Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Syria strikes, Turkey’s Assad paradox, the Arab League summit, EU’s view of the Iran nuclear deal, and clashes along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
Iranian-backed Iraqi militia group to Trump: “We’re waiting for you in Syria”
The leader of an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia group has warned that his forces are ready to fight American troops in Syria, Arab media reported. Akram al-Kaabi, the secretary-general of Harakat al-Nujaba, made the comments in response to President Donald Trump’s announcement about imminent missile strikes to punish the regime of Bashar al-Assad for the latest chemical attack in Homs Governorate. Kaabi lashed out at Trump’s remarks on Syria and accused the US president of trying to undo the recent gains of the Assad regime and its allies.
Riyadh, 05:40 a.m: It’s the first day of Ramadan, the holy month of fasting. It is a time of intense prayer and introspection for Saudis and more than 1.8 billion Muslims around the world.
Just last week, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hosted his Russian and Iranian counterparts in Ankara for talks to end the Syrian civil war. The summit of the three leaders was a strong display of unity against a backdrop of rising tensions between them and the United States. The underlying message was that the three countries were calling the shots in Syria, and that President Donald Trump’s announcement that the U.S. would be pulling out soon was right on the spot.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Gerald Feierstein, Randa Slim, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the chemical attack on Douma, Sheikh Tamim’s Tuesday meeting with Trump, Lebanese parliamentary elections, Moroccan and Algerian tension over Western Sahara, and Iran and India’s strategic partnership.
