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Shoot Film, Not Bullets: Yemenis Turn to Art to Cope with Conflict
  • Analysis
  • Shoot Film, Not Bullets: Yemenis Turn to Art to Cope with Conflict

    Yemen’s war is a forgotten catastrophe. Peter Maurer, the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, stated in August: “Yemen after five months looks like Syria after five years.” All too commonly, civilians are bearing the brunt of the violence in Yemen. According to the United Nations, more than 2,700 people have been killed and more than 5,000 wounded. Schools, hospitals, and roads have been destroyed by the Saudi-led air campaign.

    January 15, 2016

    Has Jordan Acquiesced to Assad Regime Offensive in Southern Syria?
  • Analysis
  • Has Jordan Acquiesced to Assad Regime Offensive in Southern Syria?

    Jordan is yet to react publicly to a fresh land assault by Syrian regime forces, backed by Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fighters, against rebel-held towns in southern Syria.

    January 12, 2016

    Saudi-Iran Tensions Place Pressure on Smaller GCC States
  • Analysis
  • Saudi-Iran Tensions Place Pressure on Smaller GCC States

    The recent escalation in tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran is throwing the GCC into a crisis of unity. Riyadh’s actions in particular are built on the frustration of the Yemen war and the perception of Iranian encroachment in Arab lands that the Saudi kingdom believes is its domain. King Salman and his son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, feel the kingdom is being ignored by the international community in other hot zones, namely Syria, where the outcome of the war is being determined by Washington and Moscow.

    January 11, 2016

    On Syrian Talks and Ceasefires: An Open Letter to Secretary Kerry
  • Analysis
  • On Syrian Talks and Ceasefires: An Open Letter to Secretary Kerry

    Mr. Secretary,

    No one has worked harder than you to find a way to bring all sides together to stop the Syrian civil war and muster more international action against the Islamic State. But as a former colleague, let me caution that without some major adjustments in its approach to the Syrian peace talks in Vienna, the Obama administration is headed down another dead end.

    The Ceasefire Challenge

    Dealing with Daesh: Stay the Course
  • Analysis
  • Dealing with Daesh: Stay the Course

    This article was first published in The Hoover Institution’s The Caravan.

    Daesh or ISIS does not represent an existential threat to any state except Syria and Iraq.  It occupies and controls ungoverned space in the region between Iraq and Syria and in parts of northern Africa; and its self-proclaimed Caliphate has benefited from the seizure of some income producing assets in these areas.  Daesh depends on the dynamism of success and expansion, both of which have been in short supply of late.

    December 4, 2015

    Charting a Course for Syria after Paris and Vienna
  • Analysis
  • Charting a Course for Syria after Paris and Vienna

    The shooting down of a Russian SU-24 by Turkey on November 24 has ratcheted the Syrian crisis to a new level of urgency.  This escalation, combined with the horrific attacks in Paris and the security situation still unfolding across Europe, is understandably dominating the news cycle.  Amidst this tumult, however, the results of the Vienna Summit of November 14 have been largely buried.  In truth, the downing of the Russian fighter and the massacre in Paris underscore the importance of looking again at what came out of the Vienna talks and what steps the U.S.

    5 Obstacles That We Must Overcome in Syria — Starting with Assad
  • Analysis
  • 5 Obstacles That We Must Overcome in Syria — Starting with Assad

    This article was first published on The World Post.

    Under the pall cast by the horrific terrorist attacks in Paris, the U.S., Russia and other world powers met in Vienna Saturday and agreed on a timetable for a political process in Syria. However, the principles and steps they set conjure a sense of déjà vu.

    November 17, 2015

    Debating Russia's Aims in Syria
  • Analysis
  • Debating Russia's Aims in Syria

    There is a debate within U.S. policy circles about Russian president Vladimir Putin’s strategy in Syria. While all agree that Putin intervened to shore up the faltering regime of Bashar al-Assad, there are at least two interpretations of what Putin’s ultimate objective is.

    November 10, 2015

    Syria in Vienna: Governance Before Elections
  • Analysis
  • Syria in Vienna: Governance Before Elections

    Ten days ago 17 countries called for “credible, inclusive, nonsectarian governance” in Syria followed by a new constitution and elections.  It sounds good on paper.  However, the key element is not elections, nor is it a new constitution; it is the rule of law.  Syria has had no rule of law to speak of under Baath and Assad family rule, and in its absence the Constitution is worth little and fair elections are impossible.  Thus,  the governance reference in the Vienna statement is the vital element.  Only after serious governance changes are made can a new constitution come into real effect

    AUTHOR SPOTLIGHT: Richard B. Parker
  • Analysis
  • AUTHOR SPOTLIGHT: Richard B. Parker

    Only a few authors have works that can be found on both floors of the Oman Library at The Middle East Institute, and fewer still that have a personal connection to both the institute and the history of the region. The late Ambassador Richard B. Parker can claim this status, having served 31 years in the Foreign Service and as the third editor of The Middle East Journal. He was also a longtime MEI scholar-in-residence.

    November 5, 2015

    Syria's Peace Talks Would Be Nowhere without the Iran Nuclear Deal
  • Analysis
  • Syria's Peace Talks Would Be Nowhere without the Iran Nuclear Deal

    Read the full article at The National Interest.

    Critics of the July 14 nuclear deal with Iran railed against it on the grounds that it would embolden what they argue is Tehran’s destabilizing behavior in the Middle East. The reasoning goes like this: lifting sanctions gives Iran access to tens of billions of dollars that will flow to fund disruptive activities and lets Iran freely pursue its regional ambitions without fear of reprisals.

    A Message to Vienna: Build a Framework, but Leave the Details to Syrians
  • Analysis
  • A Message to Vienna: Build a Framework, but Leave the Details to Syrians

    As Secretary of State John Kerry seeks to launch a new peace effort on Syria, he needs to be careful about the goals he sets and the language he uses. Getting the fundamentals wrong at the outset might scuttle the process or could ensure that whatever deal results will crumble under pressure.  It will then lead to more warfare and a worsening of the refugee crisis. Moreover, it would preclude us from securing our strategic goal of mobilizing more Syrians to contain and eventually expel terrorists from Syria.

    Yes, Mr. Obama, There Is a Syrian Opposition
  • Analysis
  • Yes, Mr. Obama, There Is a Syrian Opposition

    President Barack Obama has notoriously disparaged the moderate opposition as “farmers or dentists or maybe some radio reporters who didn’t have a lot of experience fighting.” The key question about the Syrian opposition is not whether it can fight — in fact many of its cadres are former Syrian army soldiers — but whether it can govern.

    October 23, 2015