What MEI’s Experts Say on Situation in Northern Syria
MEI experts Charles Lister, Paul Salem, Randa Slim, and Gonul Tol weigh in on the intensifying battles in northern Syria, with dire predictions for the humanitarian situation as well as for the internal stability of neighbors. Lister argues the loss of the Azaz corridor would be a “catastrophic morale blow” to the Syrian opposition, while Tol believes current Turkish attacks on YPG positions is not a prelude to an invasion.
Turkey Squeezed by Russian-backed Offensives in Syria
The cessation of hostilities was to begin in Syria on February 19. As was the case with the late 2011 and mid-2012 ceasefire efforts, this one is likely to fail. Instead of halting fire, the Syrian government is currently trying to isolate and assert dominion over the rebel-held portion of Aleppo, and, just as importantly, to block armed opposition supply lines extending down from Turkey. The Syrian government and its Russian and Iranian allies want to impose surrender terms on the armed opposition, not negotiate a compromise political deal.
Five years of war have unexpectedly reset gender roles in Syria. With so many men killed or missing, women are finding themselves the main supporters of their families and communities, and are often breaking with tradition and cultural taboos.
“Activists that engaged with the revolution have experienced big differences in gender relations, especially among the most conservative women,” said a 30-year-old underground activist and filmmaker in government-held central Damascus. She goes by the name Rafia, and she spoke to this author by Skype.
Not only is the battle for Aleppo sending tens of thousands of desperate people fleeing toward Turkey, but the fall of the rebel-held city would deliver a major blow to Ankara’s Syria policy.
Gonul Tol, director of MEI’s Center for Turkish Studies, delivered the following testimony at a hearing of the U.S. House of Representatives’ Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats on February 3, 2016. Click here for video of the hearing.
Mr. Chairman, members of the Committee, it is an honor to be invited to speak with you today about the political trends in Turkey in 2016.
Fate of the Dragon in the Year of the Red Fire Monkey: China and the Middle East 2016
February 2016 marks the beginning of a new phase in the Chinese lunar calendar, drawing to a close a year marked by heightened risks and fortuitous gains in China’s efforts to secure its interests in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This essay addresses three questions: How well has China adapted to the conflict and instability that have swept the region? And as we enter the Year of the Red Fire Monkey, what are the concerns that are likely to preoccupy Chinese leaders? What, if any, policy adjustments by Beijing, can realistically be expected in light of the current circumstances and uncertain prospects for the region and for China itself?
Geneva Talks Format Should be an Inclusive Roundtable
That the Syrian opposition took weeks to agree on a representative delegation hits at an essential problem with the Geneva process: its format. The Russian, American and U.N. architects of the process have retained a regime/opposition binary model that is no longer reflective of the multi-player conflict on the ground.
Outside Views on the U.S. Strategy for Iraq and Syria and the Evolution of Islamic Extremism
Amb. Robert Ford delivered the following prepared remarks at a hearing of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee on January 12, 2016. Click here to watch C-SPAN’s coverage of the hearing.
Mr. Chairman and members of the Committee,
It is an honor to be on this distinguished panel. Thank you for inviting me.
Russia’s Military Campaign in Syria Contradicts Push for Geneva Compromise
On the eve of the third round of Syrian peace talks, it is becoming clear that the political track is far removed from the military trajectories on the ground. While diplomats scurry to draw up agendas for Geneva III, and opposition delegates argue over representation, the war in Syria continues on its own course seemingly oblivious to the murmurs around it.
Has Jordan Acquiesced to Assad Regime Offensive in Southern Syria?
Jordan is yet to react publicly to a fresh land assault by Syrian regime forces, backed by Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fighters, against rebel-held towns in southern Syria.
Turkey Should Avoid Getting Involved in the Saudi-Iran Row
Turkey’s reaction to the latest spat between Saudi Arabia and Iran spells more trouble for Ankara at a time when it is already at loggerheads with many of its neighbors. Initial remarks by Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus criticizing both sides were an attempt to keep Turkey out of the rift. He was upstaged, however, by Turkey’s foreign ministry, which followed up with a statement singling out Iran for condemnation.
Washington and Ankara are in yet another difficult phase in a relationship cycle that runs from very good to very bad. American public opinion about another country forms slowly, but persists through time once set. As Turkey changes, we keep trying to fit new evidence into the old paradigm. At some point, the contradictions are too obvious to explain away, and the new narrative emerges. Right now, Americans are caught in that dilemma regarding Turkey. Unless we have a better idea of which Turkey we are dealing with, we are certain to make bad choices.
On Syrian Talks and Ceasefires: An Open Letter to Secretary Kerry
Mr. Secretary,
No one has worked harder than you to find a way to bring all sides together to stop the Syrian civil war and muster more international action against the Islamic State. But as a former colleague, let me caution that without some major adjustments in its approach to the Syrian peace talks in Vienna, the Obama administration is headed down another dead end.
This article was first published in The Hoover Institution’s The Caravan.
Daesh or ISIS does not represent an existential threat to any state except Syria and Iraq. It occupies and controls ungoverned space in the region between Iraq and Syria and in parts of northern Africa; and its self-proclaimed Caliphate has benefited from the seizure of some income producing assets in these areas. Daesh depends on the dynamism of success and expansion, both of which have been in short supply of late.
