Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
For decades Pakistan has threatened to deport its undocumented Afghan refugees, but Islamabad has never undertaken a campaign to oust Afghans on anything like the scale now underway. Whether voluntarily or through force, Pakistan’s interim administration, backed by the senior military leadership, seems determined to rapidly uproot 1.7 million of the estimated 3.5 million Afghans believed to be in the country. The government’s decision comes at a terrible time given the conditions in Afghanistan and the feared humanitarian impact.
Modern Türkiye (the official spelling of Turkey since 2021) sprang like a phoenix from the ashes in 1923, overcoming daunting odds. Its predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, had foolishly joined the war with the Central Powers in 1914 and naively thought its Arab subjects would remain loyal, only to have been utterly defeated and then dismembered. A rebellion led by the empire’s most famous war hero and leader, Kemal Ataturk, overthrew the last sultan, rejected an unjust treaty to divide up the country and repelled the occupying Allies. He established a contemporary republic based on popular
Hamas’ violent and unexpected Oct. 7 attack on Israel has shaken a fragile regional order in the Middle East. Ankara and Tehran are worried that a stronger U.S. presence in the Middle East is detrimental to their regional interests. The war in Gaza might help close the ranks between Turkey and Iran, yet there are serious limitations to a sustainable alliance between the two countries.
For the better part of a decade, Turkey and the U.S. have been locked in what might be considered an unhappy marriage, marked by bitter misunderstandings and growing distrust. Some optimists had hoped that something of a reset might be possible, but recent events, both in Turkey’s ongoing conflict with the PKK and because of the ripple effects from Israel’s war with Hamas, likely mean that U.S.-Turkish relations, far from improving, will get colder yet in the months to come.
Prigozhin’s coup was a serious warning sign that should prompt Turkey to cool ties with Russia and rebuild its relationship with the West. Yet today, Turkey and the West look at each other in terms of problems not solutions. While the political risks of reengagement are high for both sides, the potential rewards are well worth the effort needed to overcome them.
On Oct. 15, a third earthquake hit western Afghanistan’s Herat province within the span of roughly one week. The Taliban’s international isolation has neither compelled the Taliban to change its behavior nor improved its capacity to respond to such disasters. A new policy for Afghanistan is long overdue and must place Afghans at the center of the debate. It’s time for the international community to wake up to that stark reality and respond to thehumanitarian crises turning Afghanistan into a black hole.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
After several quiet months on the Turkish-Syrian border, tensions have escalated in recent days. Turkish forces have intensified their attacks against the SDF in northeastern Syria and targeted PKK hideouts along the Turkish-Iraqi border. This escalation is unfolding against the backdrop of the suicide blast in Turkey’s capital, Ankara, on Oct. 1 that targeted the Interior Ministry.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
The dire state of girls and women in Afghanistan under the Taliban, a tragedy that has featured frequently in international media reports in the last two years, came up for discussion in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on September 27. The UNSC convened for an open briefing, followed by consultations focusing on the severe restrictions imposed on the rights of women and girls in the country.
This report provides an interim assessment of the Biden administration’s overall Middle East strategy and examines the strategic opportunities and risks for U.S. policy in the broader region.
Since Turkey’s presidential election in May, western analysts have held out hope that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will moderate his strongman style of rule. Feeding their optimism are several steps Erdoğan has taken, including appointing market-friendly technocrats to his economic team, replacing the hardline interior minister, dialling down anti-western rhetoric and voicing support for Sweden’s Nato membership. All these moves, however, are aimed at strengthening Erdoğan’s one-man rule, and the west is helping him.