Wars don’t just end. They get interpreted, reinterpreted, and turned into strategic doctrine. That is what happened after the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, a conflict that saw the United States back Tehran’s Iraqi adversaries. The war taught Tehran three lessons it never unlearned: that Washington wants the Islamic Republic gone, that Iran stands essentially alone in the world, and that it cannot survive a direct, overt fight with the U.S. and Israel.
Within 48 hours this week, Iran filled six of the most important posts in its battered military and security establishment. Read together with the biographies and mandates behind them, the appointments show how Tehran is drawing lessons from successive wars and preparing for a prolonged period of insecurity, without proving it has abandoned negotiation.
In an August 9 interview with Axios, when asked about the endless swings of the Iran standoff, he shrugged it off as familiar territory. “It’ll work out in the end. It always does. It’s like a chess game.”
Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
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Middle East Focus
MEI’s flagship weekly podcast on US foreign policy and contemporary political and social issues in the Middle East.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
After the publication in 2017 of my book Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes, co-authored with RP Eddy, I have been often asked what my predictions are for possible trouble ahead. The point of the book was that there are recognized, data-driven experts who see things accurately before other experts, not that I am capable of seeing disasters coming.
Iran-Backed Iraqi Paramilitaries Gearing up for Next Year’s Elections
The leader of a prominent Iranian-backed unit within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) said today that his group will hand over its heavy and medium weapons to the Iraqi security forces, Iran’s Fars News Agency reported. Qais al-Khazali, the head of the Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, called on the Iraqi government to value P.M.F. forces as an asset and treat them fairly. The A.A.H.
Iranian Cleric Calls for Arming Palestinians for “Third Intifada”
A senior Iranian cleric today called for arming Palestinians to wage a “third intifada” against Israel, Fars News Agency reported. The interim Friday prayer of Tehran told worshippers that the fight against ISIS in Iraq and Syria has further solidified Iran’s influence in the region and stressed that the creation of Iranian-led “resistance” forces in the region will lead to the destruction of Israel. “The enemies created Daesh [ISIS] so as to create a security shield for Israel.
After Iraq and Syria, I.R.G.C. Seeking to “Expand” Its Role in Yemen and Broader Region
Emboldened by its recent gains in Syria and Iraq, Iranian military leaders are seeking to play a more aggressive role in other regional conflicts in order to “expand” Iranian influence and export the “Islamic Revolution.” In particular, latest statements by commanders of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps and commentaries in the Iranian media suggest that the I.R.G.C. is planning to further increase its support for its Houthi allies in Yemen.
All the President’s Militias: Assad’s Militiafication of Syria
After nearly seven years of war, the military balance of power in Syria appears to have shifted in favor of President Bashar al-Assad and his allies, Russia and Iran. Since Russia’s military intervention in September 2015, Assad has managed to either retain or recapture most major population centers in the country encompassing so-called ‘Useful Syria’—including Damascus, Homs, Hama, Aleppo and Latakia. It most recently broke the ISIS siege on Deir Ezzor, paving the way for further gains in the city and its surrounding areas, leading to the Iraqi border town of Al-Bukamal.
Iran Poised to Test More Ballistic Missiles in Defiance of International Demands
Iran’s leaders reiterate that the Islamic Republic will not negotiate over its controversial missile program despite mounting international pressure. Abbas Araghchi, deputy foreign minister of Iran, said the country will continue to test new ballistic missiles as planned. “Iran’s missiles exist with full force. And when needed, missile tests will be carried out. And if necessary, Iran will launch missile attacks as it did against Daesh [ISIS in Syria],” he added.
Iranian Leaders Say Israel's "Demise" Sooner after Trump's Jerusalem Plan
The chairman of Iran’s Assembly of Experts has said that President Donald Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital will mark the demise of Israel, according to the Iranian media.
I.R.G.C. May Seek to Expand Military Role beyond Syria and Iraq, Warns Reformist Daily
As the battle against ISIS is winding down in Iraq and Syria, some military leaders and hardliners in Iran call for not only keeping a long-term military presence in both countries but also expand the country’s “military advisory missions” to other conflict zones in the region, including Yemen and Palestine, warns reformist Iranian daily Bahar.
I.R.G.C.'s Khatam al-Anbia Eyes Leading Role in Syria’s Reconstruction
The head of Khatam al-Anbia Construction Base, the main engineering and construction arm of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.), has said that the conglomerate is ready to play a leading role in Syria’s reconstruction process, Tasnim News Agency reported.
The big news in recent days has been President Trump’s very contentious decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. It was a decision roundly condemned by allies in Europe and the Middle East and marks a major shift in U.S. policy. MEI experts Eran Etzion, Yousef Munayyer, and Nathan Stock join host Paul Salem to discuss the fallout.
Global LNG Markets in a State of Flux: Qatar in the Crosshairs?
International markets for natural gas — fragmented regionally and with differing price-setting mechanisms — are undergoing profound changes. The foundation is being laid for the emergence of a more globally integrated gas market, and the rapid expansion of the seaborne liquified natural gas (LNG) trade, which has forged links between distant markets, is a major reason why. Qatar — an LNG powerhouse — has dominated the Asia Pacific market, the world’s largest LNG-importing region. However, the Asian market is in a state of flux, as is the entire global LNG sector. This article explores the major changes taking place in international LNG markets, with particular attention to how Qatar is being affected by, and is adapting to them.
The Multiple Sorrows of Trump’s Jerusalem Announcement | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Charles Lister, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on the international fallout from President Trump’s Jerusalem announcement and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Syria and then to Turkey to discuss Syria, Jerusalem, and energy matters.
The commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force today called leaders of Palestinian “resistance groups” to pledge Iran’s “all-out support” for them in their armed struggle against Israel,
Iran-Backed Militia Leader’s Tour of Lebanese-Israeli Border Raises Concern
A prominent Iranian-supported Iraqi militia commander has visited the Lebanese-Israeli border and pledged to support Hezbollah in a potential war against Israel in the future, Iranian and
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
