Wars don’t just end. They get interpreted, reinterpreted, and turned into strategic doctrine. That is what happened after the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, a conflict that saw the United States back Tehran’s Iraqi adversaries. The war taught Tehran three lessons it never unlearned: that Washington wants the Islamic Republic gone, that Iran stands essentially alone in the world, and that it cannot survive a direct, overt fight with the U.S. and Israel.
Within 48 hours this week, Iran filled six of the most important posts in its battered military and security establishment. Read together with the biographies and mandates behind them, the appointments show how Tehran is drawing lessons from successive wars and preparing for a prolonged period of insecurity, without proving it has abandoned negotiation.
In an August 9 interview with Axios, when asked about the endless swings of the Iran standoff, he shrugged it off as familiar territory. “It’ll work out in the end. It always does. It’s like a chess game.”
Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
Podcasts
Middle East Focus
MEI’s flagship weekly podcast on US foreign policy and contemporary political and social issues in the Middle East.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
Hariri’s Resignation and the Saudi Corruption Crackdown
Last weekend’s arrests of prominent Saudi government officials and leading businessmen on charges of corruption has sent shockwaves through Saudi society as well as global center of finance and commerce. The developments also impacted Lebanon, with Prime Minister Saad Hariri announcing his resignation from the Saudi capital of Riyadh. MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Jean-Francois Seznec, and Randa Slim join Paul Salem to discuss these developments.
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif met with Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon today in the capital city of Dushanbe to discuss ways to improve economic and trade relations between the two countries and coordinate their counterterrorism efforts in the region. The Iranian foreign minister arrived in Dushanbe on Wednesday and held meetings with his Tajik counterpart and participated in the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s new embassy building in the Tajik capital.
Yesterday’s edition of Jameeh-ye Farda, a reformist Iranian outlet, was published without an article written by its lead columnist Morteza Simiyari. The article, “Are We Hearing the Echo of the War? Russia, Instigator of War between Iran and Saudi Arabia,” was censored by the government, but it later surfaced on Gooya News, an independent news outlet in the Netherlands.
Iran Navy Plans to Deploy Fleets to Open Seas between Europe and Americas
The outgoing commander of the Iranian Navy hailed the expanding presence of the country’s naval forces in international waters and said the Navy plans to send fleets to open seas between Europe and Americas.
Syrian, Iranian-Led Forces Capture Abu Kamal, Threaten to Confront U.S. and S.D.F.
The Syrian Army and Iranian-led forces have captured Abu Kamal, a strategic border town in eastern Syria and the last major ISIS stronghold in the country, Iranian and Arab media report. While the physical and military defeat of the Islamic State is good news, the rapid territorial gains by pro-Syrian regime forces, particularly in the oil-rich eastern province of Deir Ezzor, have increased the risk of a potential confrontation with U.S.-backed Syrian opposition forces that have also captured strategic areas from ISIS in northern and eastern Syria.
Qatar is Turkey’s closest ally in the Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C.) and, since 2011, Ankara has become Doha’s most important regional ally. From Syria to Libya, the Qataris and Turks have worked in tandem to pursue shared interests, chiefly via support for Islamist non-state actors. More than four months into the G.C.C. crisis, Ankara has played a pivotal role in assisting Qatar weather the blockade imposed by a quartet of Arab countries—Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.).
The Political (or Social) Economy of Sectarianism in Lebanon
Most of the literature that seeks to explain sectarianism in Lebanon focuses on its history or on the regional and geopolitical dynamics associated with it. Relatively few studies have examined the internal factors that shape the process of sectarianization and sustain sectarianism today. However, if one does not first understand the present dynamics of sectarianism and the material and structural factors that shape it, then exploring the history of the phenomenon in an attempt to locate its “roots” is unlikely to be very illuminating. This essay seeks to shed light on the current political economy of sectarianism in Lebanon so as to advance our understanding of this phenomenon.
The Houthi missile attack against King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Saturday not only heightened tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran, but also triggered a war of words between media outlets representing different factions in the Islamic Republic.
Harakat al-Nujaba Reacts to U.S. Move to Sanction Iran-Backed Iraqi Militias
Harakat al-Nujaba, a militia unit within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.), lashed out at the United States for seeking to impose sanctions against the group and other Iranian-sponsored militia organizations fighting in Iraq and Syria. On November 3, a bill was introduced the U.S. House of Representatives, entitled “Iranian Proxies Terrorist Sanctions Act of 2017,” which, if passed, will impose terrorism-related sanctions with respect to Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and Harakat al-Nujaba groups.
Mohammed bin Salman’s High-Wire Act | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Paul Salem, Ruba Husari, Amal Kandeel, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the arrests of numerous prominent Saudi government officials and leading businessmen on charges of corruption, Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri’s resignation, oil prices in the Middle East hitting new highs, the threat to MENA due to rising temperature levels in the region, and the Turkish prime minister’s visit to Washington.
Hariri’s Resignation Alarms Tehran about Lebanon’s Future
The resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Sunday has sent shockwaves in Tehran. While Iranian leaders and their regional allies try to appear measured and confident, they fear that political instability in Lebanon and a potential war between Israel and Iran’s ally Hezbollah – particularly at a time when Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies are still engaged in the Syrian war – could adversely impact Tehran’s regional ambitions.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
