The Other MoU: Launching a Europe-Gulf Resilience Initiative After the US-Iran Deal
The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran may have ended one of the most consequential Middle Eastern crises in decades, but it has not resolved the strategic problem it exposed. Whether the 60-day talks it set in motion will produce a final agreement remains far from certain.Yet the central lessons are already clear: Iran has preserved significant leverage, Washington has had to scale back its ambitions, and Europe and the Gulf face the prospect of protracted regional tension. Europe and the Gulf should therefore use the aftermath of the US-Iran deal to articulate their own “other MoU”: a Europe-Gulf Resilience initiative.
A Post-War Model for Verifying Iran’s Missile Arsenal
This study proposes a model for constraining and verifying Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal by employing a layered Strategic Verification Model with seven components: comprehensive baseline declarations; missile test and launch monitoring; intrusive inspections; quantitative and qualitative limits on missile capabilities; production controls, especially on solid-fuel manufacturing; a robust enforcement and compliance architecture; and regional confidence building measures.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
This backgrounder provides an overview of how the Abraham Accords came about, the US interests involved, their economic and strategic consequences, and the prospects for further enlargement going forward.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
As the Western Sahara conflict reaches its fifth decade, the territorial dispute remains unresolved and largely unknown. MEI’s Intissar Fakir unpacks the Western Sahara’s complex history and the rival claims by Morocco and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. She examines recent developments, such as President Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory and the collapse of a 30-year cease-fire, as well as the core questions that remain unanswered after half a century.
Podcasts
Middle East Focus
MEI’s flagship weekly podcast on US foreign policy and contemporary political and social issues in the Middle East.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
Jared Kushner was on a Middle East mission last week attempting to do what at least half a dozen U.S. emissaries and special presidential envoys have failed to do for more than two decades: putting the peace process on track toward concluding a final settlement between Israel and the Palestinians. But there was a marked change in the U.S. tone, as Kushner, accompanied by Special Envoy for International Negotiations Jason Greenblatt and Deputy N.S.A. Adviser Dina Powell, met with leaders of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt before heading to Israel and the West Bank.
This article focuses on the ideological threat that prompted those authoritarian regimes to play the sectarian card: the spread of Islamism. It argues that, at its core, the split in the Middle East is not a sectarian clash opposing Sunnis and Shiites — although after years of bloody conflict, many of the actors involved have come to see it that way. It is a geopolitical battle between, on the one side, states and groups aligned with the West and interested in preserving the regional status quo; and, on the other, states and groups characterized by their anti-Western rhetoric and eager to subvert that status quo. In some regards, it is a replay of the Arab Cold War — but extended to Iran, and with Islamism replacing Arab socialism as the subverting ideology.
Rouhani: Anti-Iran Sanctions Irreversible, World Not Siding with U.S. against Iran
The world’s view toward Iran has changed and previous international sanctions will not be reinstated against the Islamic Republic, President Hassan Rouhani
Iran Rejects U.S. Demand for Inspection of Military Sites
Senior Iranian political and military officials have rejected a demand by U.S. Ambassador to U.N. Nikki Haley that U.N. inspectors visit Iran’s military sites, the Iranian media reported today.
Iran’s Intelligence Ministry Says It Has Eliminated 100 Terrorist Groups inside Country
Iran’s Intelligence Ministry has said that the country’s security forces have disbanded nearly 100 terrorist groups across the country, Fars News Agency reported. “Highly serious measures have been taken in the Southern, Southeastern and Western parts of Iran and nearly 100 teams have been confronted,” the deputy intelligence minister said on Monday. He noted that the Islamic State seeks to carry out attacks in Iran but assured the public that the security forces are able to deal with any threats.
Iranian Drone Allegedly Spotted Flying over Western Afghanistan
Afghan officials say they are investigating reports that an unmanned aerial vehicle has recently entered western Afghanistan from Iran. Jilani Farhad, the spokesman of western Herat Province, said the governor’s office has been informed about the incident and is probing the case to find out which country the drone belonged to. Some Afghan media outlets have alleged that the drone was Iranian and it disappeared after local Afghan forces fired at it. The Iranian government has not reacted to the reports.
A Return to Ambiguity in U.S.-Egyptian Relations | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Gerald Feierstein, Randa Slim, Bilal Y. Saab, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including tensions between Washington and Cairo over Egypt’s excessive authoritarian crackdown, Russia’s attempt to help mediate the G.C.C. crisis, the likely postponement of the Kurdish independence referendum, the performance of the Lebanese Army in anti-ISIS operations, and the Iraqi oil minister’s trip to Moscow to discuss oil production cuts.
August 25, 2017 – Journalist Yeganeh Rezaian joins host Paul Salem for a discussion of social and cultural trends inside Iran, how youth are dealing with unemployment and other economic pressures, and how women are seeking opportunities for socioeconomic advancement and gender equality.
The Real Reasons behind the Current Turkish-German Row
Relations between Turkey and Germany have become increasingly fraught over the past few months. They hit a new low following the August 19 arrest of Turkish-born German writer Dogan Akhanli in Spain. Akhanli, a frequent critic of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was held by Spanish authorities in connection with criminal proceedings in Turkey. Germany’s foreign minister has urged Spanish officials not to extradite the writer.
I.R.G.C. Outlet: Tal Afar Liberation Paves Way for Expulsion of U.S. from Iraq
The liberation of Tal Afar is a “major defeat for America and terrorists” and paves the way for the expulsion of U.S. Troops from Iraq, says an article in hardline Javan Online, a mouthpiece of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.).
Hamas Chief Hails Iranian Support after “Restoration” of Ties
The new leader of the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza has announced that it has restored its relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tasnim News Agency
Iran Says Trump Determined to Cancel Nuclear Deal, Urges E.U. to Confront U.S.
The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (A.E.O.I.) has said that President Donald Trump is trying to cancel the nuclear deal Tehran signed with world powers two years ago. He claimed that the latest U.S. sanctions violate the nuclear accord and also accused the Trump administration of pressuring the International Atomic Energy Agency (I.A.E.A.) to declare that Iran is in breach of the agreement. The top Iranian nuclear official said that the Islamic Republic will not be the first party to violate the agreement, but stressed that it will not accept any U.S.
A series of high level diplomatic visits have signaled a surprising rapprochement between Iran and Turkey in recent weeks. What’s driving this warming in relations, and how has Russia been involved? What are the potential consequences in the region and for U.S. policy there? MEI’s Gonul Tol and Alex Vatanka join Paul Salem to discuss.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
