Wars don’t just end. They get interpreted, reinterpreted, and turned into strategic doctrine. That is what happened after the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, a conflict that saw the United States back Tehran’s Iraqi adversaries. The war taught Tehran three lessons it never unlearned: that Washington wants the Islamic Republic gone, that Iran stands essentially alone in the world, and that it cannot survive a direct, overt fight with the U.S. and Israel.
Within 48 hours this week, Iran filled six of the most important posts in its battered military and security establishment. Read together with the biographies and mandates behind them, the appointments show how Tehran is drawing lessons from successive wars and preparing for a prolonged period of insecurity, without proving it has abandoned negotiation.
In an August 9 interview with Axios, when asked about the endless swings of the Iran standoff, he shrugged it off as familiar territory. “It’ll work out in the end. It always does. It’s like a chess game.”
Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
Podcasts
Middle East Focus
MEI’s flagship weekly podcast on US foreign policy and contemporary political and social issues in the Middle East.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
New Saudi Outreach with Iraqi Shiite Leaders | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Paul Salem, and Marvin G. Weinbaum analyze new Saudi diplomatic engagement with Iraq, the escalating G.C.C. crisis, and the continuation of dynastic politics in Pakistan.
This essay examines India’s recent naval diplomatic forays in the Middle East within the broader context of its strategy to strengthen maritime cooperation across the Asian littorals. The essay describes the activities comprising India’s expanding naval operations in the Arabian Sea and maritime cooperation with the G.C.C. states and with Iran, and discusses the strategic imperatives that are driving these efforts, as well as the limits to India’s raising its security profile.
In the middle of the main market in Idlib City, during one of the busiest days of the year, Eid day, Amal, a local resident, was stopped by the Islamic police. She was chastised because of her refusal to wear the required long dark coat, the mantou. Instead of looking down or profusely apologizing, Amal shot back at the Islamic police that is affiliated with Jaish al-Fatah, “No one has anything to do with what I wear!
Red Sea Islands Deal Undermines Arab Peace Initiative
The Saudi-led Arab Peace Initiative is losing its value in the wake of Egypt’s decision to return the Red Sea islands of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia, and the latter’s participation as a security guarantor of the Egypt-Israel peace treaty.
Last month, the Egyptian parliament, bucking widespread public and institutional opposition, acknowledged Saudi sovereignty over the islands.
Most attention has focused on the dispute over sovereignty, which has been under Egyptian administration for more than half a century. But the real significance of the deal lies elsewhere.
U.S. Absent as Israel-Palestine Violence Escalates | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Eran Etzion, W. Robert Pearson, Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, and Randa Slim weigh in on the implications of Israel-Palestinian violence for U.S. foreign policy, Turkish involvement in the Gulf crisis, al-Qaeda’s response to the U.S. decision to terminate support for a program arming anti-Assad Syrian rebels, confrontational U.S. policy towards the Iran nuclear deal, and a former Iraqi Prime Minister’s power play.
Yemenite pop music has seen a resurgence. The band A-Wa (pronounced “ai-wah,” informal Arabic for “yes!”) and their infectious blend of Yemenite folk, electronic, and hip-hop music can be heard all over the world—from Cairo taxi cabs to Dubai pool parties and Parisian nightclubs. The band, whose mission is to elevate Yemenite music on the international stage, is composed of three Israeli sisters of Yemenite heritage.
Reverse Moralism and the Response to the Syrian Refugee Crisis
Non-refoulement is a well-recognized principle of customary international law that forbids the forced deportation of refugees and asylum seekers to their country of origin. This essay discusses the increasingly common practice of refoulement in Jordan and the circumstances in which this development is taking place.
Avi Gabbay, the new leader of Israel’s Labor party, stormed through his first primaries with surprising ease. Fifty-two percent of the 30,000 actual voters decided to crown the new contender, who only joined their party seven months ago. Gabbay, a former minister for environmental protection in Netanyahu’s government and a member of the center-right “Kulanu” (“All of Us”) party, had resigned in May 2016, citing “wrongdoings” in connection with the government’s natural gas policies.
Debt-Ridden and Broke: The Syrian Regime’s Colossal Reconstruction Challenge
As the Syrian civil war—at least from Damascus’s point of view—enters its final stages, the Assad regime will likely begin looking beyond narrow military goals, and focus more on the socio-economic stability and viability of its captured statelet. After six years of war, the Syrian regime finds itself in a disastrous fiscal situation, unable to shift funds to meet humanitarian and stabilization needs.
Mosul Turning Ugly, Raqqa Front Slows | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Yousef Munayyer, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent events including the battle for Mosul, corruption in Pakistan, Mahmoud Abbas’s trip to China, and Rouhani’s difficult second presidential term.
Senior Cleric: No American Place in World Will Remain Safe If U.S. Commits Mistake
A senior Iranian cleric warned today that “no American place in the world will remain safe if the United States commits a mistake against Iran.” Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Movahedi Kermani, an interim Friday prayer leader of Tehran, told a large gathering of worshippers today that the United States aims to weaken the will of the Iranian people through economic pressure in order to get them to oppose the regime.
Iran-Backed Iraqi Group Seizes “Large” Areas in Southeastern Syria
The leadership of Harakat al-Nujaba, an Iranian-supported militia group fighting in Syria and Iraq, has announced that its forces have launched an operation to seize territory from the the Islamic State in southeast Syria near the shared border point with Iraq and Jordan. The statement released by the group said the paramilitary forces had captured “large parts” of southeastern desert in Syria, including “important” villages of Um al-Raheel, Abu Khashaba, and Berket al-Miyah.
With the Islamic State ousted from Mosul, several Iraqi parliamentarians and media outlets affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) have called on the Rouhani government to “prepare the ground” for Iranian companies to play a larger role in the Iraqi city’s reconstruction process. “Iran must make efforts to actively participate in the rebuilding of Mosul and other war-ravaged cities of Iraq and export Iran’s technological and engineering services and other goods needed in Iraq.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
