Wars don’t just end. They get interpreted, reinterpreted, and turned into strategic doctrine. That is what happened after the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, a conflict that saw the United States back Tehran’s Iraqi adversaries. The war taught Tehran three lessons it never unlearned: that Washington wants the Islamic Republic gone, that Iran stands essentially alone in the world, and that it cannot survive a direct, overt fight with the U.S. and Israel.
Within 48 hours this week, Iran filled six of the most important posts in its battered military and security establishment. Read together with the biographies and mandates behind them, the appointments show how Tehran is drawing lessons from successive wars and preparing for a prolonged period of insecurity, without proving it has abandoned negotiation.
In an August 9 interview with Axios, when asked about the endless swings of the Iran standoff, he shrugged it off as familiar territory. “It’ll work out in the end. It always does. It’s like a chess game.”
Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
Podcasts
Middle East Focus
MEI’s flagship weekly podcast on US foreign policy and contemporary political and social issues in the Middle East.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
The ongoing Qatar crisis poses a major dilemma for Kuwait and Oman. Consistent with their “neutral” foreign policies, these two Arab Gulf states have maintained ties with Doha and seek to resolve the gravest internal Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C.) row since the organization’s establishment in 1981. Officials in Kuwait City and Muscat fear that failure to settle the Qatar crisis will break up the council, which would directly undermine vital Kuwaiti and Omani national interests given the potential for such a scenario to dramatically exacerbate regional geopolitical instability.
Khamenei to Abadi: Don’t Allow American Troops in Iraq and Keep Popular Forces
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said Iran opposed the presence of American forces in Iraq and urged Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi not to rely on Washington.
I.R.G.C. Contradicts Rouhani and Intelligence Minister on Syria Missile Strikes
On Wednesday, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) in a statement said Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had ordered the launch of missiles into Syria over the weekend.
Iranian Parliament Speaker: Missile Strikes Sent Powerful Message to U.S., Region
Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani said today that Iran sent a powerful message to the United States and Israel by firing missiles into Syria, Fars News Agency reported.
Analyst Cautions Rouhani against Falling Prey to U.S. “Game” and Leaving Nuclear Deal
An article in state-run Islamic Republic News Agency cautions the Rouhani government against falling prey to the “new game” by the Trump administration and its Middle Eastern allies – which the author claimed are provoking Tehran to abandon the 2015 nuclear agreement.
Israel and Hezbollah have recently raised the profile of their long quiescent front across the Blue Line border. Warnings have increased that a conflict will soon engulf Lebanon, and perhaps even draw in the United States. Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah has threatened to attack Israel’s nuclear reactor at Dimona and Israeli chemical installations in Haifa.
Saudi King Salman’s appointment of his son Mohammed bin Salman to be first in line to the throne has sent shockwaves in Tehran. While the Iranian government has not officially reacted to the announcement yet, the country’s state media warn that the 31-year-old prince will pursue a more aggressive policy vis-à-vis Iran – pointing out that Prince Mohammed has made explicit threats against the Islamic Republic, has cultivated close ties with the Trump administration, and has not shied away from confronting Iran’s proxies in Yemen, Syria and the broader region.
Europe Eyes Further Cooperation with Iran under Rouhani
European leaders welcomed the re-election of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani with a sigh of relief. The European Union’s foreign affairs chief, Federica Mogherini, congratulated Rouhani and highlighted the high electoral turnout. It is worth noting that both Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, and Mogherini had developed a good working relationship with Rouhani in face-to-face talks during the Iranian president’s first term.
Informal Networks, Formal Politics and The Politicization of Islam in Indonesia
When Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, the Christian governor of Indonesia’s capital Jakarta, was sentenced to two years in prison for “blasphemy” in May 2017 it created world headlines. The verdict was seen as emblematic of a broader “Islamization” of Indonesian politics and society that has allegedly been underway since the collapse of the New Order military dictatorship in 1998. However, as this essay shows, Indonesia is experiencing a politicization of Islam rather than an Islamization of politics.
William F. Wechsler Joins MEI as Resident Senior Fellow
William F. Wechsler has joined the Middle East Institute as a senior fellow on national security and counterterrorism. Wechsler previously served at the U.S. Department of Defense as deputy assistant secretary for special operations and combating terrorism, and before that as deputy assistant secretary for counternarcotics and global threats.
Iran Denies Saudi Claims about Arrest of I.R.G.C. Members Plotting Attacks
On Tuesday, a senior Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) official refuted claims by Saudi Arabia that it had detained three I.R.G.C. members plotting attacks against the kingdom. “The claim lacks any value … and looks more like a joke,” General Rassoul Sanaeerad, the deputy I.R.G.C. head for political affairs, said in an interview with Tasnim News Agency. He claimed Riyadh was fabricating the allegations for psychological warfare purposes against Iran.
U.S. Shoots Down Second Iran-Made Drone in Southern Syria
An American aircraft today shot down an Iranian-made armed drone approaching U.S.-led coalition forces in southern Syria, the U.S. Central Command said in a statement.
Rouhani Administration Seeks to Expand Iran’s Relations with Africa
The Islamic Republic of Iran seeks to boost its relations with African countries, President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday in a meeting with Benin’s new ambassador to Tehran Naim A
Iran: Missile Strikes in Syria Carry Wider Warning to Regional States and U.S.
On Sunday, the Iranian military said it had launched six missiles at Islamic State positions in Syria in retaliation for the June 7 attacks in Tehran claimed by the terrorist group. A statement by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) confirmed that it fired medium-range missiles from bases in the western Iranian provinces of Kermanshah and Kurdistan and killed a “large number” of Islamic State terrorists in Syria’s Deir Az Zour province.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
William F. Wechsler has joined the Middle East Institute as a senior fellow on national security and counterterrorism. Wechsler previously served at the U.S. Department of Defense as deputy assistant secretary for special operations and combating terrorism, and before that as deputy assistant secretary for counternarcotics and global threats.
