The Other MoU: Launching a Europe-Gulf Resilience Initiative After the US-Iran Deal
The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran may have ended one of the most consequential Middle Eastern crises in decades, but it has not resolved the strategic problem it exposed. Whether the 60-day talks it set in motion will produce a final agreement remains far from certain.Yet the central lessons are already clear: Iran has preserved significant leverage, Washington has had to scale back its ambitions, and Europe and the Gulf face the prospect of protracted regional tension. Europe and the Gulf should therefore use the aftermath of the US-Iran deal to articulate their own “other MoU”: a Europe-Gulf Resilience initiative.
A Post-War Model for Verifying Iran’s Missile Arsenal
This study proposes a model for constraining and verifying Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal by employing a layered Strategic Verification Model with seven components: comprehensive baseline declarations; missile test and launch monitoring; intrusive inspections; quantitative and qualitative limits on missile capabilities; production controls, especially on solid-fuel manufacturing; a robust enforcement and compliance architecture; and regional confidence building measures.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
This backgrounder provides an overview of how the Abraham Accords came about, the US interests involved, their economic and strategic consequences, and the prospects for further enlargement going forward.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
As the Western Sahara conflict reaches its fifth decade, the territorial dispute remains unresolved and largely unknown. MEI’s Intissar Fakir unpacks the Western Sahara’s complex history and the rival claims by Morocco and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. She examines recent developments, such as President Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory and the collapse of a 30-year cease-fire, as well as the core questions that remain unanswered after half a century.
Podcasts
Middle East Focus
MEI’s flagship weekly podcast on US foreign policy and contemporary political and social issues in the Middle East.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
Can the Trump Admin get its Act Together on G.C.C. Crisis? | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Robert S. Ford, Alex Vatanka, and Ruba Husari provide analysis on the Trump administration’s handling of the G.C.C. crisis, how Iran and energy markets have responded to it, and the escalating conflict in eastern Syria.
Afghan Militia Led by Soleimani Reach Syrian-Iraqi Border in Defiance of U.S.
Iranian-led Afghan Shiite militia forces have made significant territorial gains in southeastern Syria and have reached the shared border between Syria and Iraq, the Iranian media reports.
Authorities in Iran Kill Four Individuals Allegedly Linked with Islamic State
Iranian police forces have killed four individuals with alleged ties to the Islamic State in the southern province of Hormozgan, the Iranian media reported today. Azizollah Maleki, the provincial police chief, said an Islamic State flag, machine guns and explosives were also confiscated.
Iran Navy Commander: Iranian Warships to Continue Missions despite Regional Concerns
The commander of Iran’s Navy has accused the Gulf of Aden littoral states of attempting to disrupt the presence of Iranian naval flotillas in high seas, but he emphasized that the Iranian forces will continue their naval missions in the Gulf of Aden and in international waters beyond the region without paying attention to such “hostile” attempts.
Those visiting Doha are often told by locals that the city is the epicentre for political deal-makings in the Middle East. If you just want to do business, go to Dubai, the Qatari political elites are fond of saying.
Rouhani Blasts U.S. Strikes in Syria and Reiterates Support for Assad
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani hailed the latest military gains by the Syrian army and its allies and reiterated Tehran’s continued support to Damascus in a telephone conversation with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad earlier today. The Iranian president also condemned the latest U.S. strikes against pro-Damascus forces in southeastern Syria as a violation of international law.
Iraqi Paramilitaries Seize Checkpoint along Syrian-Iraqi Border
The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) announced that they have seized a strategic checkpoint along the Iraqi-Syrian border from the Islamic State, the Iranian media reported. According to Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.), the checkpoint served as a main border crossing for the Islamic State’s supply lines between Iraq and Syria.
For the people of Tehran, that ISIS can successfully wage terror attacks in the city came as a major shock. The powerful Revolutionary Guards was supposed to stop such attacks from happening. Its mantra has been that “Iran will fight ISIS in Syria and Iraq so we don’t have to fight them in Tehran.”
Tehran Attacks May Further Aggravate Regional Tension and Securitization of Iran’s Society
Gunmen and suicide bombers today killed at least 12 people and wounded 42 others in simultaneous attacks on the Iranian parliament and the mausoleum of the Islamic Republic’s founder in the capital city of Tehran – the first major attack claimed by the Islamic State inside Iran to date. While all details of the attacks are not yet clear, Iranian hardliners and the powerful Revolutionary are already exploiting the tragedy to justify their increasing securitization of the Iranian society and costly military involvement in regional conflicts at the expense of domestic priorities.
One way to understand the depths of the animosity that blew up the myth of brotherhood and cooperation among the monarchies of the Arab Gulf states on Monday is to look beyond the angry statements to a map published recently by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Citizens of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states woke up on Monday morning to what is the most severe crisis in the regional block’s 38 year history to date. In a closely coordinated series of statements, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE, along with Egypt, announced the severing of ties with the peninsular state of Qatar.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
