This article is part of a collection of short essays written by the Fellows of the Middle East Institute to explore aspects of the ongoing war with Iran. The intent of the collection is to help readers see new and unexpected elements of the dynamics and impact of the ongoing hostilities and to think harder, deeper, and broader about the implications of the conflict.
Yemen: The Houthis’ Role in the Next Evolution of the Axis of Resistance
The outbreak of the war with Iran demonstrated the strategic value of maritime chokepoints in the Islamic Republic’s confrontation with the United States. But as Tehran’s strategy of using the Strait of Hormuz to pressure Washington seems to be backfiring, Iran is working with the Houthis to strengthen its leverage over another strategic chokepoint: the Bab el-Mandeb. The recent escalation in Yemen should be viewed within this context.
US Regional Defense Policy: Strategic Prioritization and the Promotion of Collective Defense
A war that the White House initially hoped would be brief has now dragged on for more than six months, with prospects for a resolution frustratingly remote, and the Trump administration’s credibility among friend and foe alike is nearly exhausted. Focusing on defense and security, there are multiple lessons from the Iran war that should shape US strategic thinking.
The closer Israel gets to destroying Hamas, the more likely war with Hezbollah becomes
He leads an army of more than 100,000 dedicated and battle-hardened fighters equipped with thousands of missiles, rockets, and armed drones that can hit targets deep inside Israel with pinpoint accuracy. He inspires and commands the loyalty of Iran-backed militias across the Arab world.
So when Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the Lebanese Hezbollah and the most powerful non-state actor in the world, says that he doesn’t wish to broaden the war in Gaza to help his Palestinian ally Hamas, the region should breathe a sigh of relief – because his words matter.
Israel’s Response to Iran in Syria: Choosing Between Escalation and Accommodation
The following quantitative analysis explores the core of Israel’s strategic airstrikes in Syria between 2013 and August 2023, a critical aspect of its defense policy during this time, aimed at mitigating Iranian influence in the region and protecting its national borders.
Despite the Houthis’ geographical distance from Israel and perceived limited capabilities, the threat they represent is all too real and if underestimated, they have the potential to derail diplomatic efforts and destabilize the region, with potentially catastrophic consequences.
Iranian-backed militia attacks on coalition forces threaten to ignite eastern Syria
Over the last three weeks, there has been a notable escalation in attacks targeting international coalition bases in northeastern Syria orchestrated by Iranian-backed militias operating in Iraq and Syria. Concurrently, there have been reports indicating the establishment of operational centers aimed at coordinating these strikes. These developments appear to be part of an effort to exploit the widespread popular discontent with the United States and Israel, with the strategic aim of expanding and consolidating Iranian influence in Syria.
Former U.S. general: The lessons of Iraq apply to Gaza
As we watch the war in Gaza develop, we must not lose sight of the stark challenges the Israeli military is facing. Modern urban combat is always bloody and grueling, and the devastation it wreaks is gut-wrenching to watch. But in Hamas, Israel is facing a particularly formidable foe.
Five scenarios for Gaza and how the international community can shape its future
In the midst of the current war, there is still no concrete plan for what the future of Gaza could look like. Yet preparations for a viable and lasting post-war order should start before it could be too late.
Israel’s ‘second stage’ ground operation is proof its priorities have changed
The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, declared over the weekend that Israel had embarked on the “second stage” of its war against Hamas in Gaza. What did he mean – and is the Israeli government any closer to its objective of “wiping out” Hamas?
The intensity of the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks by Gaza and the ensuing crisis have already had a significant and dramatic impact on relations between the United States and Israel. The resolute American backing reflects the purest expression of the strategic partnership that has existed between Israel and the U.S. for more than five decades.
Israel can damage Hamas but a ground invasion of Gaza will be challenging
The Israeli government does its military no favours when it says that the goal of a ground invasion of Gaza is to “wipe out” or “destroy” Hamas. Such maximalist and eminently unrealistic objectives puts the Israel army in a bind: how to translate this political bluster into practical and achievable military objectives.
Israel’s failures and response to the Hamas attack: A preliminary assessment
The Israeli lack of preparedness for, and weak initial response to, the Hamas attack on Oct. 7 encompassed four key failures. But its consequences may bring far-reaching political changes and internal reforms.
The Houthis’ Red Sea missile and drone attack: Drivers and implications
On Oct. 19, the Pentagon press secretary confirmed that the Iran-backed Houthi militia targeted the USS Carney, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, in the Red Sea. The USS Carney reportedly intercepted three cruise missiles and several drones without sustaining any damage or casualties. Although the Houthis have yet to claim responsibility for the attack, the drones and missiles were likely fired from north-western, Houthi-held positions in Hodeida and Hajjah governorates on Yemen’s Red Sea coast and were headed “north,” most likely toward Israel.
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