US Policy in the Middle East

The biggest development this past week in the Middle East policy of Trump’s second administration was the initiation of talks between the United States and Iran. This small sign of hope for diplomatic progress comes at a time when the administration continues to implement an assertive and unpredictable economic unilateralism that has roiled global markets and reduced trust and confidence between the United States and most close international partners. Brian Katulis unpacks three things to watch closely as Trump’s Iran policy evolves and his broader national security approach unfolds.

Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed, the United Arab Emirates’ national security adviser and a central figure in its tech and security landscape, visited Washington for high-level engagement with President Donald Trump’s team late last month, signaling a transformative shift in UAE-US relations.

The MENA Energy Recap is a quarterly review of key energy developments that took place in the Middle East and North Africa region from January to March 2025 and what they signal for the months ahead. The Recap views these developments through the lenses of policy and strategy, energy security, and markets.

For much of the past two decades, ISIS has enjoyed favorable conditions in Syria, but since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, dynamics have changed. With Assad’s departure, ISIS lost its long-standing and vitally important safe haven in Syria’s central desert and its most significant driver for recruitment. The results — so far — have been dramatic.

Two years on, the war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has created the world’s largest humanitarian crisis and wrought terrible destruction.

US President Donald Trump surprised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by publicly announcing “direct” talks between the United States and Iran set to take place later this week. The American president also unleashed global economic uncertainty by announcing simultaneous, unexpectedly high tariffs on dozens of countries around the world — including a 17% duty on Israel — and kicking off an escalating global trade war.

Climate variability is becoming a key factor in shaping economic stability, agricultural productivity, and water security worldwide. Periods of prolonged drought and sudden shifts in precipitation can have far-reaching consequences, particularly for countries that rely heavily on natural water sources for farming and economic growth. As weather patterns become increasingly unpredictable, there is a need to navigate both the immediate impacts of climate change and the long-term strategies needed for climate resilience. Finding the right balance between short-term relief and sustainable adaptation is a fundamental challenge for economies dependent on agriculture and water availability. Nowhere is this more evident than in Morocco.

Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right National Rally, was convicted of embezzling EU funds and barred from running for office for five years, effectively disqualifying her from the 2027 presidential race. Meanwhile in Turkey, Ekrem İmamoğlu, mayor of Istanbul and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s most formidable rival, was arrested on corruption charges and jailed, just as he was poised to become the opposition’s presidential candidate. Both Le Pen and Turkish officials are now pointing to each other to justify their own actions.

Almost immediately after the start of the conflict in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his governing coalition began a concerted effort to persuade first the European Union and then the United States to pressure Egypt to accept Palestinian refugees. Egypt refused and continues to do so. Capitulating is not in Cairo’s national interest and bullying it will only backfire.

President Donald Trump confirmed this week that he plans to travel to Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries later this spring. This visit will bring the region into sharper focus at a time when Trump’s priorities have focused closer to home and on his unique brand of economic warfare.

President Donald Trump is focused on realizing two transformative breakthroughs that his predecessors failed to accomplish: an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict, centered on a tripartite US-Saudi-Israeli deal, and an agreement between the US and Iran. Both would be historic achievements. So far, however, progress in each case has proven difficult and plodding.

President Masoud Pezeshkian might be the loneliest man in Iran. Just eight months into his term in office, he is already losing the support of those who once championed him. While the Iranian presidency is a thankless job, Pezeshkian is not helping his own case.

The leaked Signal chat among top US administration officials discussing military strikes against the Houthis laid bare the central problems with Trump 2.0’s nascent national security approach: a strong inclination to prioritize tactics and propaganda in statecraft without a clear and practical strategic framework to deal with the biggest challenges in the world and in the Middle East.

President Donald Trump’s administration dialed up its use of military power in the Middle East this past week just as it took more steps to dismantle American institutions central to advancing peace and stability through diplomacy.