Iran can’t afford a regional war

As the Israel-Hamas war rages on, Iran’s role will continue to be a pivotal question. While Tehran no doubt feels vindicated in its model of armed campaign against Israel, it will likely not seek escalation by confronting Israel and the United States militarily. Instead, Iranian officials seem to consider the war as a moment to elevate Tehran’s image in the Islamic world—and in the global south generally.

In this sense, Iran is faced with an opportunity. During the last decade, the Iran-led so-called Axis of Resistance took a major hit in the Islamic world as Tehran rescued the autocratic regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria from a popular uprising. Now, by capitalizing on the Palestinian cause, Tehran is looking to rehabilitate its image among Muslims globally.

What Iran wants now is not a regional war but rather to undercut Israel—and more importantly, the United States—on the diplomatic front. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been blunt in conveying two key messages: that the United States is complicit in Israel’s war against Hamas and that Islamic countries should cut ties with Israel. To this end, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, on visit to Turkey this week, called for a Muslim economic boycott of Israel. If Tehran manages to come out of this latest round of conflict diplomatically stronger, then the regime might even have a better chance at solving its key foreign-policy challenge: namely, a final resolution of the decades-long nuclear standoff with the West and the lifting of the hugely costly sanctions regime put on Iran as a result.

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