Gönül Tol

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan finds himself in a tough spot with Russia as tensions in Syria have escalated dramatically. In a rare direct military confrontation between Turkish and Syrian regime forces, 14 Turkish soldiers and over 100 regime troops were killed in two separate clashes in Idlib over the past 10 days.

Turkey’s blossoming relationship with Russia has not only raised eyebrows in Washington and Western European capitals, it has also caused a great deal of discomfort in countries like Georgia that have borne the brunt of Russian aggression. A few recent scattered signals from Ankara, however, might comfort Turkey’s northeastern neighbor.

The escalating tensions between Turkey and Russia over Idlib did not come as a surprise to many outside the Turkish capital.

Fourteen MEI scholars weigh in on the key Middle East policy issues and developments for the year ahead.

Erdogan may want to hold early elections in 2020 to mitigate the fallout of a worsening economy and deny the new parties enough time to organize.

Twelve MEI scholars run down the major developments in the Middle East in 2019.

Aspiring Powers, Regional Rivals examines relations between Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, three key aspiring regional powers that have sought to take on a growing role in the Middle East in recent years at a time of declining U.S. influence and involvement.

The delivery of the S-400 marked the most significant rupture in Turkey-U.S. ties in decades.

Turkey’s relations with its Western allies are at an all-time low while its partnership with Russia is flourishing. Since Russia began delivery of its S-400 advanced aerial defense system in July, questions have abounded about Turkey’s future in the NATO alliance. Such concerns are not baseless. Turkey-Russia ties have never been closer. The two countries cooperate closely not only on energy and trade but also in the defense sector. But fears of a Turkish withdrawal from the alliance overlook the continued tension between Ankara and Moscow, which makes NATO an indispensable partner for Turkey.

The following testimony was delivered before the U.S. Helsinki Commission at a hearing titled, “At What Cost: The Human Toll of Turkey’s Policy at Home and Abroad,” on October 31, 2019.

To make his case for an expansive safe zone in northern Syria stretching to Iraqi border, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi. Putin might accept a limited Turkish presence in the area for now, but he is unlikely to agree to Turkey’s current plans.

In a stunning announcement on Sunday, the Trump administration gave the nod to a Turkish military incursion into northeastern Syria, an operation that would entail clashes with Washington’s Kurdish allies in the area. The U.S. military, which has around 1,000 troops in Syria, would not “support or be involved in the operation.” But the White House said it would pull back U.S. forces stationed near the Syrian-Turkish border to clear the way for Ankara’s troops.

A unilateral Turkish military operation will worsen the already toxic mood vis-à-vis Erdogan on the Hill and might prompt a new round of sanctions at a time when Trump was trying to convince the Congress to hold off on punishing Turkey.

The Turkey-U.S. relationship has been going through one of the most difficult periods in its history. Yet, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is still hopeful. He has put all his eggs in President Trump’s basket and thinks it will pay off. He pinned his hopes on a meeting with Trump on the sidelines of the UNGA to iron out differences.

This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region featuring Gerald Feierstein, Alex Vatanka, Eran Etzion, Gonul Tol, Amal Kandeel, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Michael Sexton and Eliza Campbell.