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Gönül Tol is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI), where she focuses on Turkish politics, US-Turkey relations and regional dynamics in the Middle East.

A frequent commentator, Dr. Tol has written extensively on Turkish domestic and foreign policy for publications such as Foreign Affairs, The New York Times, Foreign Policy, and The Financial Times. Her articles include “Turkey Is Now a Full-Blown Autocracy” in Foreign Affairs (March 2025), “The Indispensable Erdogan” in The New York Times and “Erdogan Sees Nothing But Opportunity in Syria” in The Financial Times (December 2024).

She is the author of Erdogan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria (Oxford University Press, 2023).

She holds a PhD and MA from Florida International University, and a BA from Middle East Technical University.

She is a native Turkish speaker.

The Latest from Gönül Tol

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كيف تبدو الأردوغانية حقا؟
  • Commentary
  • كيف تبدو الأردوغانية حقا؟

    “إن قرار المحكمة التركية الصادر في 3 يوليو/تموز القاضي بإدانة عضوين سابقين بمنظمة العفو الدولية/
    الفرع التركي، بتهم الإرهاب هو أحدث مؤشر على أن التعسف ربما يكون السمة البارزة لنظام أردوغان الجديد”

    حاول المراقبون للشأن التركي منذ فترة طويلة العثور على مصطلح يصف بدقة “تركيا الجديدة” تحت فترة حكم الرئيس رجب طيب أردوغان. 

    The Middle Kingdom and the Middle Corridor: Prospects for China-Turkey ties
  • Analysis
  • The Middle Kingdom and the Middle Corridor: Prospects for China-Turkey ties

    As part of Beijing’s broader strategy of seeking out new markets and cultivating strategic partnerships with countries beyond its backyard, China has been seeking to expand its economic and political ties with Black Sea states. While Beijing’s involvement in the region is still at a nascent stage, it has already prompted fears that its economic engagement masks a political agenda that could hurt Western interests.

    How the battle over energy will reshape Eurasia relationships
  • Analysis
  • How the battle over energy will reshape Eurasia relationships

    The conflict between Turkey and the anti-Turkey bloc is hurting everyone’s energy interests, making an investment in the region costlier for energy companies. Without compromises on all sides, everyone stands to lose.

    Can corona diplomacy cure Turkey’s foreign policy isolation?
    Photo by Ali Balikci/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Can corona diplomacy cure Turkey’s foreign policy isolation?

    Even before the coronavirus upended life around the world, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was already grappling with a host of problems. Then COVID-19 hit the country. Many argue the virus will exacerbate Erdogan’s problems but where others see a problem, Turkey’s president sees an opportunity. He is using the crisis to undercut the opposition, distribute government contracts to his loyalists, and punish his critics. Erdogan is relying on the virus to score foreign policy points as well. Sending medical aid to its neighbors and beyond helps assert Turkey’s leadership and improves its shattered image. The coronavirus likewise provides an excuse to remove a long-time irritant in Ankara’s ties with Washington and perhaps end its isolation in the region.

    Is Erdogan misreading Putin on Libya?
    Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan greet each other during their talks at the Kremlin on March 5, 2020 in Moscow, Russia. Erdogan is having a one day visit to Russia to discuss the war conflcit in Syria.
  • Analysis
  • Is Erdogan misreading Putin on Libya?

    After Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hammered out a deal with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on March 5 to bring an end to the fighting in Idlib in northwestern Syria, he said he was hopeful that the two countries could extend their cooperation to Libya.

    All eyes on Moscow as Erdogan and Putin meet for Syria talks
    Women in Istanbul hold banners which read murderer Russia, murderer Iran, murderer Esed during the protest on February 29, 2020 after 33 Turkish soldiers were killed in Idlib, Syria on 27 February.
  • Analysis
  • All eyes on Moscow as Erdogan and Putin meet for Syria talks

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan typically never misses an opportunity to appear in front of the cameras. But after the airstrike last week that killed dozens of Turkish soldiers in Syria’s Idlib Province, he was unusually quiet. The local governor of the south-eastern Turkish province of Hatay, just across the border from Idlib, did the talking instead, providing information to the outraged public about Turkey’s worst day in the Syrian conflict so far. As the death toll rose, so did the public anger.