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Gönül Tol is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI), where she focuses on Turkish politics, US-Turkey relations and regional dynamics in the Middle East.

A frequent commentator, Dr. Tol has written extensively on Turkish domestic and foreign policy for publications such as Foreign Affairs, The New York Times, Foreign Policy, and The Financial Times. Her articles include “Turkey Is Now a Full-Blown Autocracy” in Foreign Affairs (March 2025), “The Indispensable Erdogan” in The New York Times and “Erdogan Sees Nothing But Opportunity in Syria” in The Financial Times (December 2024).

She is the author of Erdogan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria (Oxford University Press, 2023).

She holds a PhD and MA from Florida International University, and a BA from Middle East Technical University.

She is a native Turkish speaker.

The Latest from Gönül Tol

تصفية حسب
310 Results
كيف تبدو الأردوغانية حقا؟
  • تعليق
  • كيف تبدو الأردوغانية حقا؟

    “إن قرار المحكمة التركية الصادر في 3 يوليو/تموز القاضي بإدانة عضوين سابقين بمنظمة العفو الدولية/
    الفرع التركي، بتهم الإرهاب هو أحدث مؤشر على أن التعسف ربما يكون السمة البارزة لنظام أردوغان الجديد”

    حاول المراقبون للشأن التركي منذ فترة طويلة العثور على مصطلح يصف بدقة “تركيا الجديدة” تحت فترة حكم الرئيس رجب طيب أردوغان. 

    The Middle Kingdom and the Middle Corridor: Prospects for China-Turkey ties
  • التحليل
  • The Middle Kingdom and the Middle Corridor: Prospects for China-Turkey ties

    As part of Beijing’s broader strategy of seeking out new markets and cultivating strategic partnerships with countries beyond its backyard, China has been seeking to expand its economic and political ties with Black Sea states. While Beijing’s involvement in the region is still at a nascent stage, it has already prompted fears that its economic engagement masks a political agenda that could hurt Western interests.

    Can corona diplomacy cure Turkey’s foreign policy isolation?
    Photo by Ali Balikci/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • التحليل
  • Can corona diplomacy cure Turkey’s foreign policy isolation?

    Even before the coronavirus upended life around the world, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was already grappling with a host of problems. Then COVID-19 hit the country. Many argue the virus will exacerbate Erdogan’s problems but where others see a problem, Turkey’s president sees an opportunity. He is using the crisis to undercut the opposition, distribute government contracts to his loyalists, and punish his critics. Erdogan is relying on the virus to score foreign policy points as well. Sending medical aid to its neighbors and beyond helps assert Turkey’s leadership and improves its shattered image. The coronavirus likewise provides an excuse to remove a long-time irritant in Ankara’s ties with Washington and perhaps end its isolation in the region.

    Is Erdogan misreading Putin on Libya?
    Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan greet each other during their talks at the Kremlin on March 5, 2020 in Moscow, Russia. Erdogan is having a one day visit to Russia to discuss the war conflcit in Syria.
  • التحليل
  • Is Erdogan misreading Putin on Libya?

    After Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hammered out a deal with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on March 5 to bring an end to the fighting in Idlib in northwestern Syria, he said he was hopeful that the two countries could extend their cooperation to Libya.

    All eyes on Moscow as Erdogan and Putin meet for Syria talks
    Women in Istanbul hold banners which read murderer Russia, murderer Iran, murderer Esed during the protest on February 29, 2020 after 33 Turkish soldiers were killed in Idlib, Syria on 27 February.
  • التحليل
  • All eyes on Moscow as Erdogan and Putin meet for Syria talks

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan typically never misses an opportunity to appear in front of the cameras. But after the airstrike last week that killed dozens of Turkish soldiers in Syria’s Idlib Province, he was unusually quiet. The local governor of the south-eastern Turkish province of Hatay, just across the border from Idlib, did the talking instead, providing information to the outraged public about Turkey’s worst day in the Syrian conflict so far. As the death toll rose, so did the public anger.

    Turkey faces potential Russian blowback on Syria — and tomatoes are only the beginning
     A Turkish military convoy of tanks and armoured vehicles passes through the city of Idlib, in northwestern Syria, near the Syria-Turkey border, late on February 7, 2020.
  • التحليل
  • Turkey faces potential Russian blowback on Syria — and tomatoes are only the beginning

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan finds himself in a tough spot with Russia as tensions in Syria have escalated dramatically. In a rare direct military confrontation between Turkish and Syrian regime forces, 14 Turkish soldiers and over 100 regime troops were killed in two separate clashes in Idlib over the past 10 days.

    As Turkey-Russia ties warm, will Georgia be left out in the cold?
    Foreign Minister of Turkey Mevlut Cavusoglu (L) meets Foreign Minister of Georgia David Zalkaliani (R) in Tbilisi, Georgia on December 23, 2019.
  • التحليل
  • As Turkey-Russia ties warm, will Georgia be left out in the cold?

    Turkey’s blossoming relationship with Russia has not only raised eyebrows in Washington and Western European capitals, it has also caused a great deal of discomfort in countries like Georgia that have borne the brunt of Russian aggression. A few recent scattered signals from Ankara, however, might comfort Turkey’s northeastern neighbor.