Former CIA operative: regime change in Iran is much harder than the US thinks

The writer is a former CIA operative with deep exposure in the Middle East

The United States and Israel have done significant damage to Iran’s military and security apparatus. Senior commanders have been killed at a pace rarely seen in modern warfare.

The regime’s sense of impunity has been shaken. These are real achievements. But the Islamic republic remains what it has long been: a regime that is brutal at home and destabilising abroad.

Military success should not be confused with political transformation. That is the dilemma now confronting Washington and its regional allies: how to exploit battlefield gains without falling into the familiar illusion that pressure alone can produce regime change.

After 26 years in operations with the CIA, including helping lead sizeable covert action programmes, my experience tells me there is no silver bullet here — least of all in covert action.

معهد الشرق الأوسط (MEI) هو منظمة تعليمية مستقلة وغير حزبية وغير ربحية. لا يشارك المعهد في أي أنشطة دعوية، وآراء الباحثين فيه تعبر عن آرائهم الشخصية. يرحب المعهد بالتبرعات المالية، لكنه يحتفظ بالسيطرة التحريرية الكاملة على أعماله، ولا تعكس منشوراته سوى آراء المؤلفين. للاطلاع على قائمة المتبرعين للمعهد، يرجى النقر هنا.