Salam Kawakibi

With elections set for the fall, Tunisian voters are searching for leaders to emerge who can tackle issues of political fragmentation, long standing economic problems, growing protests, and a volatile regional environment with civil war in Libya on one side and political upheaval in Algeria on the other. Sarah Yerkes, a fellow with the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East program, and Sharan Grewal, postdoctoral fellow at the Brookings Center for Middle East Policy, join host Alistair Taylor to discuss.

It is time now for cooler heads to prevail and for both sides to back away from the precipice toward which they are moving.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Randa Slim, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the anniversary of the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, the economic crisis in Lebanon, and ongoing peace talks in Afghanistan.

Larry Schwartz, former deputy assistant secretary in the State Department’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, and Domenic DiGiovanni, vice president of Red Arch, join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the illegal theft and smuggling of cultural artifacts from the Middle East, and what regional governments and international partners can do to help preserve the region’s cultural heritage.

In the days before his recent election victory, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raised the prospect of Israel’s formal annexation of the West Bank settlement areas where close to half a million Israelis reside. For more than half a century Israeli governments of all parties and constellations have been enthusiastic partners in policies of occupation and settlement of territories conquered in the Arab-Israeli war of 1967.

Following a brief lull on the Israel-Syria front earlier this year, Tel Aviv has once again resorted to striking Iranian assets to its north. While a direct confrontation between the IDF and Syrian forces seems unlikely, the path forward for Israel and Syria is unclear.

The recent arrest in Turkey of two suspects accused of spying for the United Arab Emirates highlights the growing divide between the two countries. Although the original cause of the rift – diverging views of the Muslim Brotherhood – has become less relevant in recent years, the enmity between the two nations endures.

The Trump administration’s decision on April 22 to stop waiving sanctions on eight countries that purchase Iranian crude sent oil prices to their highest levels in six months and resulted in defiance and hand-wringing from the three biggest buyers. Meanwhile, Iran said it would retaliate by shutting the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would make it difficult for other Persian Gulf countries to get their crude to market.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, contributors Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, Ruba Husari, Guney Yildiz, Mirette F. Mabrouk, and John Calabrese provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the failure of the twelfth rounds of Syria peace talks in Astana, negotiations over Yemen’s strategic port of Hodeida, a new report on Iraq’s oil production potential, ongoing US-Turkey talks about a buffer zone in Syria, Egypt’s recently passed constitutional amendments, and Beijing’s second Belt and Road Forum.

The rise of ISIS post-2013 changed how we perceive jihadism, but it also transformed how jihadists perceive themselves and how they behave. ISIS’s brutality and indiscriminate violence created unprecedented fragmentation within the jihadi movement, leading to critical self-reflection and changes in codes of conduct. This paper examines how three different jihadi groups – the Afghan Taliban, al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-Continent, and Tehreek- e-Taliban Pakistan (or the Pakistani Taliban) – responded to the challenges presented by ISIS.

Peace talks are predicated on the notion that the Taliban have fundamentally changed. They haven’t.

Former US Ambassador to Turkey W. Robert Pearson and Sinan Ulgen, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, join host Alistair Taylor to discuss Turkey’s March local elections, in which the long-ruling AK party faced significant setbacks, and where Turkey’s economic challenges and strained foreign relations stand today.