Tehran’s calculations to avoid all-out war with Israel and the US
Under past reformist presidents, Iran repeatedly tried to build a grand bargain deal with the United States, entailing compromises over its nuclear program in return for negotiating spheres of influence across the Middle East. This September, speaking on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York, the current reformist president Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed that he was open to direct talks with Washington to end hostilities.
Riyadh and Tehran use OIC to mend ties, but its sway is limited
A year after the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two countries are working to ease regional tensions in the Middle East in exchange for promises of improved bilateral cooperation. But strains persist in the relationship between Riyadh and Tehran, and the two capitals are using the Saudi-based Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which includes members from 57 Muslim countries, to try to bridge their differences.
Iran and Hamas beyond the borders of the Middle East
As the fighting in Gaza continues to rage, Iran’s influence with Hamas, hitherto limited, could expand further, extending beyond the Middle East. Tehran is looking to contain Israel not just in the region but in Africa and Latin America as well. Although there are ideological differences between these two members of the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” the Israel-Hamas war may bring them closer together and strengthen their partnership.
Looking to the archives: What history tells us about Iran-Saudi relations
Relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have been in the spotlight over the past six months, following the March 2023 China-brokered agreement to normalize ties seven years after they were cut off. The connections go back much farther, however. Indeed, as a new archival report on Iranian-Saudi diplomatic history makes clear, they even predate the founding of the current Saudi kingdom in 1932. Below are a series of excerpts from the report, highlighting key themes that emerge from the archives, many of which continue to resonate today.
Two weeks ago, on March 10, Iran said it would restore diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia after a seven-year rupture as part of a deal brokered by China. The agreement, reached in Beijing, is the result of almost a year and a half of mostly quiet talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia, facilitated by a host of countries including China, Iraq, Oman, Russia, and the United States.
A decline in average annual precipitation, rise in temperatures, and dire water shortages are leading drivers of climate-induced internal migration in Iran. This long-term trend was further exacerbated in 2022 by more intense heat waves, resulting in a spike in seasonal migration.
Climate-induced migration in the GCC states: A looming challenge
Gulf states are collectively investing billions of dollars in developing renewable energy. Yet climate change patterns in neighboring regions, combined with rising average temperatures, could eventually trigger more serious climate migration problems for the Gulf countries themselves.
Making the most of Iran’s reserves will require it to develop shared fields like Dorra/Arash, a gas field located offshore in the northern Gulf, where Iran must vie with competing claims from neighboring Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. In the past, Iran has often neglected its joint gas fields as a result of sanctions and focused instead on meeting its rapidly growing domestic needs through exploiting non-shared fields, but the country says this must change going forward.
Severe sand and dust storms are an underrated risk in the Gulf region, despite mitigation measures
The precise causes of sand and dust storms (SDSs) are not fully known, but they are becoming better understood. Armed with this knowledge, regional actors are beginning to respond in the face of intensifying SDSs.
Iran to remain a key partner for Ethiopia in the Tigray conflict
Ethiopia is Iran’s gateway to the Horn of Africa and the broader East Africa region. By helping Ethiopia in its ongoing conflict with the rebel Tigray Defense Forces, which represent the Tigray ethnic minority, Iran is preserving its so-called strategic depth in the region to bolster its influence.
With the Hope Line, Iran aims to boost seawater transfer to fight growing drought
Blessed with milder temperatures than its Gulf neighbors as well as abundant rain and snow fall, Iran is one of the last countries in the region to introduce a seawater transfer plan to fight unprecedented levels of drought. The plan, once fully implemented, could help build water corridors linking the shores of Iran’s southern Gulf to those of its northern Caspian Sea. Named the Hope Transfer Line, the plan promises prosperity for farmers and industrialists, and potable water for communities in some 10,000 villages and urban areas located in so-called Red Zones, a category that applies to regions coping with severe water scarcity.
Key environmental challenges facing the Middle East
The Middle East and North Africa faces a host of major environmental challenges, from water scarcity and food insecurity to climate change adaptation. In recognition of Earth Day on April 22 and in conjunction with MEI’s Climate Week 2021 events, we asked experts and scholars to weigh in with their thoughts on the most pressing environmental issues facing the region.
