The Unavoidable Neighbor: Managing Iran Beyond the War

Gulf states and their partners are increasingly looking beyond their most immediate interests of containing the war with Iran. While recent talks between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Iran have kept de-escalation on the agenda, a broader regional security framework and non-aggression pact has also emerged, envisioning a longer-lasting solution to regional conflicts. The talks have yet to produce a settlement, but they reflect a growing recognition that Gulf security cannot depend entirely on Washington. Iran will still be there, and its neighbors will have to find ways of living with it.

Iran’s asymmetric attacks on civilian infrastructure and maritime shipping in the Gulf have exposed the limits of strategies resting on military superiority. During the past eight months of the war, Gulf governments found themselves unable to sway US decisions and ward off Iran’s retaliation. Nor can they assume that the weakening of Iran’s conventional military capabilities will necessarily make it a less dangerous neighbor. The Islamic Republic’s regime may have fewer options under sustained military and economic pressure, but this is exactly why its incentives to exploit the vulnerabilities of its adversaries may grow stronger.

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