Comparing Harris and Trump on Middle East Policy

Vice President Kamala Harris entered the White House in 2021 with limited foreign policy experience, and she has had few opportunities to engage in foreign policy over the past four years while serving in the Biden administration as vice president.

Harris will likely maintain the Biden administration’s overall stances and engage in foreign policy and diplomatic efforts that are broadly in line with those of the Biden administration, at least initially.

If she wins in November, she will inherit an increasingly volatile situation in the Middle East in addition to a host of other concerns, like Russia, China, the southern border, and more, that will require her to surround herself with seasoned foreign policy and regional experts.

Harris is a staunch internationalist bent on working congruently with American allies to limit the influence of adversaries such as Russia, China, and Iran.

The official Republican Party Platform of 2024 doesn’t say much about foreign policy in the Middle East aside from “stand with Israel” and “restore peace in the Middle East.”

A second Trump administration could represent a continuation of previous policies from 2017-2021, including:

• A “maximum pressure” approach to Iran with a focus on economic sanctions, strong rhetoric, and targeted military actions;

• A strong disinclination against diplomacy with Iran over a nuclear deal;

• A lower priority on human rights and democracy in US policy and a higher priority on energy and economic policy cooperation;

• An easy working relationship with regional strongmen like President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey;

• A warm relationship with Saudi Arabia;

• A desire to achieve a US-Saudi-Israel deal similar to the 2020 Abraham Accords that opened formal relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco;

• A ban on immigration from Muslim-majority countries;

• A largely hands-off approach in Syria.

Harris has been more vocal regarding the devastation caused by the war in Gaza and the suffering of Palestinian civilians, as seen in her speech on March 3, 2024. She remarked that the conditions for the people of Gaza amid the war are “inhumane.” However, she also asserted that her stance on Israel’s right to self-defense remains the same, noting that she and President Joe Biden are “...unwavering in [their] commitment to Israel’s security.”

Practically speaking, Harris’ approach to the war has not significantly deviated from that of the Biden administration. Her rhetoric appears to be more empathetic toward the plight of Palestinians, and she has repeatedly referenced that “far too many” civilians have been killed in Gaza; but Harris has a relatively standard pro-Israel voting record from her time in the Senate.

Harris continues to underscore that policy planning for the “day after” in Gaza is a priority and was the first US official to encourage Arab heads of state to prioritize and discuss post-war plans.

Speaking at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Dubai in early December 2023, Harris laid out three key elements for post-war Gaza: reconstruction, security, and governance. She said that the international community will need to “dedicate significant resources” to rebuild the devastated coastal strip, Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces must be strengthened so they can “assume security responsibilities in Gaza” and terrorists cannot be allowed “to continue to threaten Israel,” and the PA must be revitalized so it can govern both the West Bank and Gaza.

In his comments at the Herzliya Conference in June 2024, Vice President Harris’ National Security Advisor Phil Gordon reinforced US support for Israel and what it views as the positive path forward, where Israel finds peace with its neighbors and is “integrated into the region like never before.” Gordon stated that “the choice should be clear” for ending the Gaza war, beginning with the three-phase cease-fire deal that was built upon Israel’s proposal and endorsed by Biden on May 31, 2024.

Responding to protesters during her campaign speech in Arizona on Aug. 9, Harris asserted that she has been very clear in her past statements that “now is the time” to secure a cease-fire and hostage release deal. Furthermore, she said that she and President Biden are working “around the clock every day” to achieve this and that although Israel has the right to “go after the terrorists that are Hamas,” it also has a responsibility to prevent harm to civilians.

On Aug. 8, Gordon asserted on X that Harris does not support an arms embargo on Israel.

Trump often describes himself as the “best friend that Israel has ever had.”

In May 2018, Trump moved the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem; and the following March, he also recognized the Golan Heights as falling under Israeli sovereignty.

In 2018, the Trump administration cut all funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA).

Trump has alleged that the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks would not have happened if he were president, vowing that if he gets elected the Israel-Hamas war will come to an end. However, Trump does not seem to have a clear approach to handling the conflict.

When asked about Palestinian statehood in the June 2024 presidential debate, Trump’s response was “I’d have to see.”

In July 2024, Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “do what you have to do” and “finish up the war” but warned Netanyahu that Israel’s public relations have taken a hit due to the graphic videos of death and destruction that have come out of Gaza.

In 2015, Harris supported the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal to rein in Tehran’s nuclear program. She is quoted calling President Trump’s decision to pull out of the deal in 2018 “reckless and one that jeopardizes national security.” In 2019, during her campaign for president, Harris stated that she “would plan to rejoin the JCPOA, so long as Iran also returned to verifiable compliance.”

Harris has also been critical of Iran’s human rights violations, particularly after its violent crackdown on anti-government protests in 2022, following the death of Mahsa Amini in the morality police’s custody after her arrest for improperly wearing hijab. Shortly after, Harris called for Iran to be removed from the United Nations Commission on the Status of Women.

Trump supports an assertive stance against Iran, but it is unclear what exact approach he might take if reelected given his mixed record of action from his first term and the uncertainty of current dynamics with Iran.

Trump was a vocal critic of President Barack Obama’s 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, calling it “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into.” He withdrew from the deal in May 2018 — against the advice of some in his administration and contrary to the analytical judgements of his intelligence community — and reimposed harsher economic sanctions on Iran.

The 2024 Republican Party Platform and the Trump campaign have identified certain goals on Iran:

• Preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear technology and delivery capabilities, in addition to blocking Iranian ambitions through the reinstitution and expansion of sanctions, providing security assistance to regional partners, and supporting freedom-seeking Iranians in their revolt against the mullahs;

• Stopping Iran's unjust detention of foreigners, including US citizens;

• Ending Iranian cyber-attacks against the US and its allies; and

• Ceasing the country's support for terrorists, extremists, and regional proxies, such as Hezbollah, Hamas, the Taliban, and al-Qaeda.

In his X Space interview with Elon Musk, on Aug. 12, 2024, Trump claimed that during his administration, Iran had “no money” for Hamas, Hezbollah, or their other “instruments of terror.” While Iran’s ability to fund their proxies was hampered by the heavy sanctions levied against the regime, Trump’s own Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said, in 2020, that Iran was continuing to fund Hezbollah and Iraqi Shi’a terrorist groups.

Trump also claimed during this interview that his administration successfully pressured China into ceasing all oil purchases from Iran. These sales did drop in 2019 but rose again while Trump was still in office.

In the past, Harris aligned with members of the Democratic Party when she co-sponsored legislation to end US support for Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen.

Vice President Harris’ National Security Advisor Philip Gordon described the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea as “outrageous behavior” as well as reasserted the US commitment to preventing future Houthi attacks, diminishing their capabilities, and rejecting their “self-proclaimed justification” for such attacks.

In April 2019, President Trump used his veto power to strike down a bipartisan resolution that would have ended US military involvement in Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen.

One of Trump’s last foreign policy decisions during his presidency in January 2021 was to designate the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization, barring US citizens and entities from engaging financially with the group, a move that worsened the humanitarian crisis by hampering the delivery of aid.

Trump criticized the Biden administration in January 2024 for conducting military strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, accusing President Joe Biden of “dropping bombs all over the Middle East” in response to Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.

On Syria policy, the Harris campaign adheres to a status quo approach, closely aligned with how the Biden administration has handled Syria: prioritizing containment through humanitarian aid, countering terrorism, and supporting justice and diplomatic activities. 

The Harris campaign is also expected to continue the existing policy on countering ISIS, sustaining small-scale deployments in theaters like Syria, Iraq, and Somalia, while prioritizing an intelligence and special forces approach to monitoring and neutralizing threats to the homeland from places like Afghanistan, Yemen, and across Africa.

In an effort to remove American forces from “endless wars,” President Trump publicly called for the withdrawal of US troops from northeastern Syria in October 2019, abandoning the Syrian Democratic Forces and other allied militaries in the country with little notice. This announcement prompted his first defense secretary, Jim Mattis, to resign from his position, but US troops remained in Syria.

When President Trump was inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2017, the White House issued a foreign policy document that stated “defeating ISIS and other radical Islamic terror groups will be our highest priority.”

Trump also routinely argued that US allies in the Middle East and Europe should pull their own weight in dealing with the threat of ISIS, as the group poses a more serious threat to them than it does to the United States.

ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in a US Special Operations Forces raid in October 2019. Trump subsequently claimed that American forces defeated 100 percent of the ISIS caliphate in Iraq and Syria, though ISIS attacks continued to rise through the remainder of his presidency.

ISIS attacks in Iraq and Syria are on track to double from 2023 to 2024, and it is unclear if another Trump administration, given its inconsistent regional security approach in its first term, would prioritize the fight against ISIS in a possible second term.

In 2021, Harris publicly affirmed support for the Abraham Accords. As vice president, she met the crown prince and prime minister of Bahrain, Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, in 2022, and has met and held calls with the president of the UAE, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, on numerous occasions. All of these engagements were against the background of the Biden administration’s support for the accords.

The Trump administration’s top Middle East policy outcome was the 2020 signing of the Abraham Accords, and the pursuit of normalization deals between Israel and Arab states is one of the few Middle East initiatives the Biden administration has embraced from the Trump era.

Another Trump administration would likely encourage other Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, to enter into agreements similar to the Abraham Accords to deepen Israel’s integration into the region, but that seems unlikely without the creation of a Palestinian state.

In 2018, then-Senator Harris joined a bipartisan coalition on legislation to restrict arms sales to the kingdom due to its involvement in the Yemeni civil war and the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. She also co-sponsored a bill to require a public report on Khashoggi’s killing.

In 2019, Harris called for the United States to “fundamentally reevaluate” its relationship with Saudi Arabia in order to stand up for American values and interests, while still collaborating on shared goals like counterterrorism.

While Trump’s first foreign visit as POTUS was to Riyadh, he also proved to be an inconsistent security partner when Iran attacked Saudi oil fields in Abqaiq in 2019 and the US stayed silent in its response.

In line with the Biden administration, a Trump administration would likely seek to finalize a US-Saudi-Israel deal to normalize relations between the two Middle Eastern countries. However, it remains unlikely without a serious pathway for a future Palestinian state.

Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, was a key interlocutor in the US-Saudi bilateral relationship and the signing of the Abraham Accords.

Harris was incredibly vocal during her December 2023 meeting with President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi that the US would not accept under any circumstances the forced relocation of Palestinians from Gaza or the West Bank into Egypt.

Trump has previously praised Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi as his “favorite dictator” and never conditioned foreign aid to Egypt on human rights benchmarks as the Biden administration has.