The global economic moves by President Donald Trump’s second administration dominated the headlines and overshadowed everything else on America’s foreign policy agenda this past week, including issues in the Middle East.
Nevertheless, the Trump administration continued to keep the region high on its agenda, with the president sending a letter to Iran’s supreme leader and his team directly engaging with the Palestinian group Hamas, which the US has designated as a terrorist organization. This ongoing engagement on the Middle East’s top two strategic questions, Iran and Arab-Israel affairs, contrasted with America’s hands-off approach to Syria, which saw some troubling violence this past week.
America’s economic statecraft and diplomacy chart a new path
The media spotlight on Trump 2.0’s foreign policy this past week was trained on the unconventional moves the administration has been making on tariffs and global economic policy. The United States imposed 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, prompting the European Union to announce retaliatory tariffs. These moves came as the United States and Canada engaged in further brinksmanship on tariffs, threatening even more bilateral economic warfare.
President Trump did not deny that America might experience an economic recession as a result of what he’s doing, as top US business leaders worry about how all of these unpredictable moves might impact their bottom line and America’s overall economic strength. All of this frenetic economic policy activity roiled global stock markets and added to broader geopolitical uncertainty, exacerbating the upheaval created by Trump’s diplomatic moves to end the Ukraine war.
Those diplomatic efforts produced an outcome this week — one that took place in the Middle East. Ukraine, in talks with the United States hosted by Saudi Arabia, agreed to a 30-day cease-fire subject to Russia’s approval; the announcement came as Russia continued to attack Ukraine. The Trump administration also agreed to restart military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, paused following the Oval Office dust-up between President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Feb. 28.
These quick zigzags in US foreign policy offer a preview of coming attractions in US Middle East policy. And the fact that Saudi Arabia continues to play host to talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine is an indication of the kingdom’s broader geopolitical aspirations that stretch far beyond the Middle East.
Trump’s team continues to shape its Middle East agenda
All of these moves reinforce the point that the second Trump administration is not following the traditional US foreign policy playbook, something that was once again on display in the Middle East this past week. In many respects, the Trump team is still finding its way in the region, ad libbing and trying different moves on two key fronts while largely standing on the sidelines on a third.
1. Arab Israel: No big wars, no clear pathways to peace yet. A big news story this week was that the Trump administration had directly engaged in talks with Hamas, which started the latest devastating war in the Gaza Strip with its attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing over 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostage. This was an example of the Trump team’s diplomatic improvisation — expect the unexpected.
This news drew the quiet ire of Israel, which worried that the Trump administration might be looking for a way home for the one American still held hostage among about two dozen others presumed to be alive. Secretary of State Marco Rubio later said that the talks, conducted by Trump’s hostage envoy Adam Boehler, were a “one-off” attempt to secure a hostage release that didn’t work.
The main diplomatic effort on the Israel-Hamas front remains in the framework of the cease-fire brokered in January, even though Israel has not abided by its commitments envisioned in that three-phase deal. Following the expiration of the deal’s first phase on March 1, Israel has sought to pressure Hamas by cutting off aid and electricity to the Gaza Strip, a move decried by leading Arab countries that will necessarily need to be part of the long-term resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff remains the most important figure in these talks.
The Trump team also stayed engaged in efforts to maintain the cease-fire between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel, with Morgan Ortagus, Witkoff’s deputy, announcing a new round of talks aimed at keeping the parties in the deal struck by the Biden administration last November. This mix of conventional diplomacy and unanticipated moves is part of the Trump foreign policy formula.
2. Iran: Still no clear strategic direction for US policy. Iran remains the greatest strategic challenge facing America in the Middle East, even as the regime is in its weakest position since seizing power in 1979. The Trump administration has sent mixed messages so far, doubling down on its “maximum pressure” approach laid out in a presidential national security memo by revoking a sanctions waiver that allowed Iraq to buy gas and electricity from Iran, while also looking for ways to have a conversation with Tehran.
Trump sent a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei about negotiating with Iran on March 6, according to an interview he gave to Fox Business that was broadcast the following day. In the interview Trump said, “There are two ways Iran can be handled: militarily, or you make a deal,” and noted that he would “prefer to make a deal because [he is] not looking to hurt Iran.” Trump predicted that there will be “some interesting days ahead” and that “we’re down to final strokes with Iran.”
Iran responded with mixed messages of its own, with Khamenei referring to the US as a “bullying government” during a meeting with government and military officials. At the same time, Iran signaled some openness to talks. Watch this space carefully, because it is linked to wider geopolitical moves the Trump team is making on Russia and could impact broader regional strategic dynamics.
3. Syria: Standing back and letting it all be. Last week, loyalists of the former regime of Bashar al-Assad fought interim government forces in Alawite-majority towns in western Syria. The violence quickly took the lives of scores of civilians, with the reported death toll topping 1,000. Secretary Rubio released a statement on the escalation of violence, asserting that the United States “condemns the radical Islamist terrorists, including foreign jihadis, that murdered people in western Syria in recent days.” This Trump administration position on Syria reinforced a more-than-decade-long approach by the United States of making statements often not backed up by policy instruments to achieve the stated end goals.
In less than two months, the second Trump administration has shown that it will not adhere to the broader foreign policy playbook used by any previous administration, including the first Trump administration, even as it continues to pursue diplomacy aimed at extending cease-fire deals struck by its predecessor. Like an improv performer, President Trump may not ultimately have a clear view of where his foreign policy will end up — and as the old adage warns, if you don’t know where you are going, any road will take you there.
Brian Katulis is a Senior Fellow at MEI.
Photo by SAUL LOEB/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is an independent, non-partisan, non-for-profit, educational organization. It does not engage in advocacy and its scholars’ opinions are their own. MEI welcomes financial donations, but retains sole editorial control over its work and its publications reflect only the authors’ views. For a listing of MEI donors, please click here.