President Donald Trump’s administration dialed up its use of military power in the Middle East this past week just as it took more steps to dismantle American institutions central to advancing peace and stability through diplomacy.
In the span of a few short days, the United States conducted attacks against the Houthis in Yemen, backed Israel’s military strikes in Gaza, and took steps to dismantle the US Institute of Peace, one of several important soft power institutions that Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has targeted in its nearly two months in office. The aggressive strategic communications of the Trump administration’s foreign policy team continued to send mixed messages, toggling between threatening adversaries with more war and attempting to find pathways to peace in the Middle East and Ukraine.
These somewhat contradictory moves are not the cause of renewed conflict or tensions in the Middle East — correlation does not mean causation. But the emerging dissonance and imbalance in Trump 2.0’s overall national security approach does not bode well for the Middle East today, which sits on the precipice of greater conflict in the weeks ahead.
US national security: The early unwinding of Trump’s aspirations to end wars?
Recent headlines covering US national security have been dominated by Trump’s efforts to end Russia’s war against Ukraine and his administration’s continued aggressive campaign to deport immigrants — both documented and undocumented. Ongoing court and political battles over the executive branch’s scope of authority to fundamentally alter and in some cases gut key US national security institutions remained in the spotlight. The outcomes of those fights will ultimately determine the shape of US engagement in the Middle East and around the world.
President Trump’s March 18 phone call with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, fell short of meeting Trump’s ambitions to achieve a full truce and came nowhere close to his assertion during the presidential campaign last year that he would end the Ukraine war in one day. Ukraine agreed to consider the US-Russia-negotiated proposal of a 30-day halt to attacks on energy infrastructure. But actions speak louder than words: Russia launched a drone attack on Ukraine within hours of the call and claimed to have shot down Ukrainian drones overnight. Putin’s price for a settlement may be much higher than Trump expects.
Trump will likely find that ending thorny conflicts through the sort of deal-making diplomacy he likes to tout from the business realm rarely produces the results he hopes for — just as his predecessor President Joe Biden’s efforts to end conflicts in Sudan and Gaza bore little fruit.
US Middle East policy: The risk of a wider conflict looms
Three main events dominated US policy in the Middle East this past week: the end of the latest Israel-Hamas cease-fire, US strikes against the Houthis in Yemen, and a continued jockeying for position between Iran and the United States.
1. Israel ends the Gaza cease-fire. The January 2025 cease-fire between Israel and Hamas was envisioned to last several months, but Israel ended this latest pause in the fighting by launching strikes against Hamas targets in Gaza on March 18 that reportedly killed hundreds of people. During the two-month cessation of hostilities, some additional Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners were released and some humanitarian aid was delivered to Gaza, but aid delivery and the already severely limited supply of electricity to Gaza were cut off as part of Israel’s efforts to pressure Hamas to renegotiate the terms of the January deal.
This latest cease-fire did not fundamentally alter the structure of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and it remains unclear whether a pathway to another end of the fighting can be produced with Israel threatening Hamas with more attacks and the Trump administration backing Israel’s position.
2. The US attacks the Houthis in Yemen. On March 15, the United States launched airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen after the group continued to threaten international shipping in the Red Sea and issued more threats against the US and Israel. Trump and his team warned that additional attacks would follow, with Trump’s Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth saying, “This campaign is about freedom of navigation and restoring deterrence … The minute the Houthis say ‘we’ll stop shooting at your ships, we’ll stop shooting at your drones,’ this campaign will end. But until then, it will be unrelenting.” Trump also warned Iran that it would face consequences if there were Houthi attacks, a statement that could signal a possible new phase of conflict if nascent diplomatic efforts with Iran on its nuclear program do not take root.
3. Iran and the US continue to send each other mixed messages. The overarching strategic challenge in the Middle East remains Iran, including its nuclear program and support for actors that undercut regional stability. Trump sent a letter to Iran proposing talks, an offer that Iran initially turned down. Trump’s national security advisor Michael Waltz reiterated the long-standing US position that “all options are on the table” to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and Iran rejected Trump’s “bullying.”
The interplay of two strategic issues, Iran and Arab-Israel relations, remains the top priority for US policy in the Middle East. And Trump’s emerging formula has not yet produced a discernible or coherent strategic pathway to resolution two months into his second term.
Unilateral disarmament of US soft power tools
As the Trump administration edged toward the use of more military power while dabbling in diplomatic initiatives on the Russia and Iran fronts, it continued apace in its campaign to cut, gut, and fundamentally restructure US institutions that have played significant roles in building peace and stability around the world for decades.
The toll continues to rise two months into this disarmament campaign on the soft power front. For decades, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) has supported security and prosperity at home by fostering a more stable international environment through critical investments designed to boost economic progress, well-being, health, and stability outside of the United States. But earlier this month, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that 82% of USAID’s contracts had been canceled and thousands of staffers were dismissed or put on leave. Court and political fights continue to play out over the administration’s moves against the premier US development organization, with a judge ruling that Trump’s actions likely violated the constitution.
Last week, the Trump administration additionally moved to shut down key US public diplomacy institutions, including the Voice of America — organizations that promote freedom around the world and counteract the propaganda of malign actors like China, Russia, and Iran. The government actions against the US Institute of Peace also point to an accelerating trend to eliminate the soft power tools of diplomacy, development, and peace-building that have had bipartisan support in the United States for decades.
Moreover, there are looming prospects of additional cuts coming in the State Department, which plans to close missions overseas and dismiss perhaps thousands more employees on top of the hundreds who recently resigned, along with possible cuts of up to 60,000 civilian jobs in the Pentagon. All of this means that the United States will have fewer resources and tools to shape and influence events around the world.
The moves the Trump team is making on US national security institutions will inevitably have an impact on America’s engagement with the Middle East and other parts of the world. In a real sense, as the United States is eliminating many of its soft power capabilities, it is also dialing the hard power tools up to 11, using military strikes in Yemen and other parts of the region. But by unilaterally disarming itself in diplomacy, it opens the space for adversaries and competitors like Iran, China, and Russia to shape the narratives and influence political trends across the region.
The risk to America’s national security institutions stemming from the Trump administration’s actions resembles turning down the treble on a speaker while cranking the bass all the way up — the result might be a blowout.
Brian Katulis is a Senior Fellow at MEI.
Photographer: Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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