The Pakistani General Running Washington’s Backchannel to Tehran
As Washington and Tehran edge closer to escalation, the most critical line of communication keeping the crisis from spiraling is being run not by polished diplomats, but by an unlikely figure: a Pakistani general. Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan’s powerful army chief, has quietly become the key intermediary in the U.S.-Iran standoff, managing what may be the most important backchannel between the two sides. The mediation has thrust Pakistan to the center of the crisis while exposing it to enormous risk.
Bonus Episode: Stalled Talks and Next Steps for the US and Iran
This bonus episode of Middle East Focus features a recent MEI Virtual Briefing. Director of Communications Zeina Al-Shaib is joined by MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellows Alan Eyre and Daniel Benaim to discuss the historic talks held in Pakistan last weekend between the United States and Iran. Tehran insists the US failed to gain its trust, while the US made its red lines clear and declared it would blockade Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf. What happens next? Eyre and Benaim offer insights into what goes on behind the scenes at such negotiations; identify the core issues at play; explore potential incentives to end the war; analyze the weaponization of energy; as well as assess the role of other regional players in this conflict.
The Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict: A strategic concern for the US
Pakistan’s relationship with the Afghan Taliban has shifted from open sponsorship in the 1990s to a silent partnership following 2001 to alienation and belligerence since 2021. Their current conflict, which comes at great cost to both countries and seems to have no easy military or political resolution, also poses a threat to the stability and prosperity of neighboring states. Although American strategic interests in the region greatly diminished following the United States’ military withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, the region’s altered political dynamics have prompted a growing American engagement with Pakistan and tentatively with Afghanistan. At the same time, the US has become a factor in how both Islamabad and Kabul have come to form their national security strategies.
Managing US Relations with Pakistan in Uncertain Times: Obstacles and Opportunities
With the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, America’s bilateral relationship with Pakistan may have come to hold less priority. If it was thought, however, that the U.S. could afford to largely turn its back on Pakistan and its region, it has instead become increasingly evident that American strategic interests and other concerns demand continued attention and involvement. It is imperative that American policymakers take a longer view when it comes to dealing with Pakistan, especially at a time when great power competition is intensifying across South Asia. It is in the interest of both the U.S. and Pakistan to develop a mutually beneficial and sustainable relationship.
The unrelenting season of forced homecoming continues for Afghans who had sought refuge in neighboring countries in the past. Thousands of Afghan refugees have been forcefully relocated from countries like Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, and Tajikistan, back into Afghanistan. In a country where the current set of rulers has had little to offer other than regressive policies over the past 29 months to its citizens, these men, women, and children will find it difficult even to survive without an immediate increase in international attention and assistance.
The Jews who disappeared from Iran and reappeared in Pakistan
In the mid-1980s, during the long war between Iran and Iraq, students at Tehran’s Jewish high schools would watch their friends suddenly disappear, and then reappear six months later in Europe, the U.S., or Israel. They would get there through a sophisticated smuggling operation that spirited Iran’s Jews out of the country and into Pakistan.
Pakistan’s military and foreign policy under Gen. Asim Munir
Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa orchestrated a paradigm shift in Pakistan’s traditional geostrategic focus, transitioning from geopolitics to geoeconomics. His successor, Gen. Asim Munir, in command of Pakistan’s military for the past year, now faces the challenging task of turning Gen. Bajwa’s unrealized vision into a reality, a goal that requires cultivating positive interdependence and multi-alignment with a diverse range of partners, while also ensuring domestic stability.
Managing US Relations with Pakistan in Uncertain Times: Opportunities and Obstacles
With the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, America’s bilateral relationship with Pakistan may have come to hold less priority. If it was thought, however, that the U.S. could afford to largely turn its back on Pakistan and its region, it has instead become increasingly evident that American strategic interests and other concerns demand continued attention and involvement. It is imperative that American policymakers take a longer view when it comes to dealing with Pakistan, especially at a time when great power competition is intensifying across South Asia. It is in the interest of both the U.S. and Pakistan to develop a mutually beneficial and sustainable relationship.
Afghan refugees as victims of Pakistan and Afghanistan’s clashing security interests
For decades Pakistan has threatened to deport its undocumented Afghan refugees, but Islamabad has never undertaken a campaign to oust Afghans on anything like the scale now underway. Whether voluntarily or through force, Pakistan’s interim administration, backed by the senior military leadership, seems determined to rapidly uproot 1.7 million of the estimated 3.5 million Afghans believed to be in the country. The government’s decision comes at a terrible time given the conditions in Afghanistan and the feared humanitarian impact.
Earthquake in Afghanistan: Natural disasters, international isolation, and Taliban incapacity
On Oct. 15, a third earthquake hit western Afghanistan’s Herat province within the span of roughly one week. The Taliban’s international isolation has neither compelled the Taliban to change its behavior nor improved its capacity to respond to such disasters. A new policy for Afghanistan is long overdue and must place Afghans at the center of the debate. It’s time for the international community to wake up to that stark reality and respond to thehumanitarian crises turning Afghanistan into a black hole.
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