Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

Efforts to reform the Iraqi Kurdish security forces known as the Peshmerga are at serious risk of failing. Tensions between the ruling parties of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region are not new, but the working relationship between the leaders of the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan has collapsed over the past year. As a result, officials within the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs are no longer capable of preventing the politics of partisan self-interest from consuming the reform project. The prospects for the depoliticization and unification of the Peshmerga have rarely seemed more remote.

Syria’s dramatic readmission into the Arab League in May was perceived as a turning point for the country’s fortunes. Although Damascus may have come in from the cold diplomatically, there has been little change on the economic front, where the situation remains dire. Since the start of May, the Syrian pound has lost over 70% of its value and shows no sign of stabilizing.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Forging a deal establishing open, normal bilateral ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel would be a major feat with plenty of potential perils along the way — the diplomatic equivalent of climbing Mount Everest. If done right, the result would be historic and transformative for the Middle East with positive geopolitical repercussions. Here are five factors to watch as the Biden administration continues its efforts to produce a major diplomatic breakthrough in the region.

As a trailblazer in hydrogen diplomacy, Japan is seeking to develop a new pattern of energy interdependence with its longstanding partners, the Gulf Arab states — countries that are promising production bases for and exporters of green hydrogen and ammonia, and whose leaders have come to regard the development of clean hydrogen as an attractive way to diversify their economies.

Although it has fallen off the international news cycle, Baghdad is booming, high on rising oil prices and full, once again, of neo-Abbasid, petroleum-fueled aspirations. Thanks to new anti-money laundering legislation, funds are being funneled not only into hotels and real estate but also into new cultural enterprises. So what does culture in Iraq look like in 2023?

As Israel grapples with fundamental questions of identity and societal fissures years in the making, Iran and its Axis of Resistance continue to employ their escalation-ready approach of pushing the envelope in multiple geographic theaters, launching cyber operations to foment disunity in Israeli society, and attempting to neutralize the regional gains Israel has made after signing the Abraham Accords with several Arab neighbors in 2020.

In the race to manage climate change, the UAE is ramping up its efforts in a bid to accelerate its transition to a green economy. In the first two weeks of July 2023, it published several important documents laying out its actions and objectives, including a revised version of the national climate pledges it made under the Paris Agreement, as well as a number of targeted policies and strategies.

The United States has likely reached a crossroads in its relationship with Saudi Arabia. President Joe Biden can reconcile with Riyadh and use its influence to reshape the Middle East to Washington’s liking and stabilize the global energy markets. Or else the Saudis most probably will tie their fortunes much closer to China, thus complicating America’s top foreign-policy priority.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Amin Naeni discusses the revival of Iranian foreign policy with non-Western states, particularly African nations, in light of President Raisi’s recent visit to the continent. Additionally, the piece touches upon how this process has differed between Raisi versus Ahmadinejad, and whether Raisi’s Africa policy will prove any more successful than his predecessor’s.

While some analysts attribute Egypt’s realignment toward Turkey, Qatar, and Iran to a change in the foreign policies of its influential allies, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, it can be argued that Egypt’s shift is primarily motivated by its domestic dynamics and its unfulfilled foreign policy objectives between 2014 and 2018. Egypt’s realignment, in that sense, seeks to achieve multiple unmet domestic and regional aims.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Since 2015, Yemen’s largest governorate, Hadramawt, has been informally divided between two distinct centers of power with different military loyalties and external backing. The balance of power within the governorate is no longer fixed, however. Changes in Hadramawt’s military, political, and economic dynamics are reshaping power networks in the governorate and beyond, with implications for the conflicting agendas of the Saudis, Emiratis, and Houthis.

For resource-rich countries such as Gulf oil and natural gas producers, sovereign wealth funds have emerged as promising tools to save for future generations, mitigate the effects of outsized economic shocks, and/or be deployed as reserve investment and strategic development funds to spend on human, natural, social, and physical capital.